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January 17-18 Winter Storm


Snowstorms
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58 minutes ago, Harry Perry said:

I can smell the bust from here haha. Seems like the qpf is overdone.. like several have mentioned the majority of the snow falling would be WAA snow - not saying 6-7” couldn’t fall from that, but I’d at least slice those numbers in half, especially around here with the slop that will likely mix in. 
 

Travelers advisory incoming. 

Trying to play on cuteness of this past weekend, lol.  Our office notes that 70 members of the Euro & GFS ENS show 3+ and list several positive differences from the weekend disaster. Gotta give this one a shot at breaking our losing streak

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One would think with that strong high storm track will be limited on how north it can get but that depends on how east the high gets and how strong. Pretty confident there will be a large swath of accumulating snow and an icing zone but how far south this gets remains to be seen. I'm pretty confident I80 north will see a decent event but unsure south of there

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12 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

One would think with that strong high storm track will be limited on how north it can get but that depends on how east the high gets and how strong. Pretty confident there will be a large swath of accumulating snow and an icing zone but how far south this gets remains to be seen. I'm pretty confident I80 north will see a decent event but unsure south of there

And the timing, right?

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Unlike the previous storm, we have a decent airmass present. Now it becomes a question of low placement. With the current path, I’d imagine the Illinois/Wisconsin border as the rain/snow line. If the low pushes further north or south, that would obviously change.

For I-80 and points south to have any shot at decent snow, I’d want to see a low path about 150 miles south of where it currently is.

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Just now, Hoosier said:

That is the storm I thought of after seeing his post and before reading yours lol.  Generally speaking I think he's right though... the biggest ones typically are pointed ENE or NE.

48hrSnowTotalEnding7amMonday.png.1b908908b658492b6b37c387c09a7136.png

48hrSnowTotalEnding7amMonday_local.thumb.png.1c504b34c58137bb07afba11c5c7aed1.png

The Super Bowl Blizzard! Fond memories of shoveling snow up to my head & constantly worrying about branches falling onto the roof

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43 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

And the timing, right?

Yea definitely could slow down. 

 

14 minutes ago, mimillman said:

Unlike the previous storm, we have a decent airmass present. Now it becomes a question of low placement. With the current path, I’d imagine the Illinois/Wisconsin border as the rain/snow line. If the low pushes further north or south, that would obviously change.

For I-80 and points south to have any shot at decent snow, I’d want to see a low path about 150 miles south of where it currently is.

Well even with it's current track on models today it's still getting accumulating snow well south of I80. But for significant accumulations this south I agree a much more south track would be needed

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Unlike the previous storm, we have a decent airmass present. Now it becomes a question of low placement. With the current path, I’d imagine the Illinois/Wisconsin border as the rain/snow line. If the low pushes further north or south, that would obviously change.
For I-80 and points south to have any shot at decent snow, I’d want to see a low path about 150 miles south of where it currently is.
Do you mean rain including freezing rain or just plain rain and snow line? You're ignoring the strength of the departing surface high. My biggest concern is WAA resulting in a quicker flip to an icy mix but I'm not concerned about temps below freezing in the metro until later Friday night, surface low track dependent. The surface low being well southwest of us, with the surface warm front well south and the high slowly shifting east puts us in a good spot to start as snow everywhere with questions on duration.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

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1 minute ago, RCNYILWX said:

Do you mean rain including freezing rain or just plain rain and snow line? You're ignoring the strength of the departing surface high. My biggest concern is WAA resulting in a quicker flip to an icy mix but I'm not concerned about temps below freezing in the metro until later Friday night, surface low track dependent. The surface low being well southwest of us, with the surface warm front well south and the high slowly shifting east puts us in a good spot to start as snow everywhere with questions on duration.

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I meant rain including freezing rain. 

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15 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Do you mean rain including freezing rain or just plain rain and snow line? You're ignoring the strength of the departing surface high. My biggest concern is WAA resulting in a quicker flip to an icy mix but I'm not concerned about temps below freezing in the metro until later Friday night, surface low track dependent. The surface low being well southwest of us, with the surface warm front well south and the high slowly shifting east puts us in a good spot to start as snow everywhere with questions on duration.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

This seems like a better setup than the last storm to get some ice into downtown, even if for a short time.  The subfreezing air will already be in place (opposite of last time).  Lake temps may be down a couple degrees compared to the day of the last storm though we'll have to see.  Also the fetch over water will be a lot shorter than last time, and possibly becoming increasingly short with time as the flow turns more and more southeasterly.  

Another thing is that if the current timing holds, there would be practically no diurnal assistance in helping to get temps above freezing in northern IL... gonna have to be purely advective.

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