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January 7th-8th Threat


Rjay
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The forecast 500 mb pattern on the 1/7/2020 0z NAM has some similarities to that which was present on January 20-21, 1994.

NAM010720200z.jpg

Snowfall amounts on January 20, 1994 were as follows for select locations:

Atlantic City: 0.2"; Baltimore: 3.1"; New York City: None; Philadelphia: 0.2"; and, Washington, DC: 1.9".

At that time, a bitter Arctic air mass covered the East. This time around, that won't be the case. So, snowfall amounts will likely be lighter in Baltimore and Washington than they were back in 1994.

At present, taking into consideration the latest guidance and the forecast 500 mb pattern with some modifications, likely snowfall amounts for the January 7-8 system for the Middle Atlantic region include:

Atlantic City: 1" or less
Baltimore: 1"-2"
Harrisburg: 1" or less
Islip: 0.5" or less
New York City: 0.5" or less
Newark: 0.5" or less
Philadelphia: 1" or less
Sterling: 1"-3"
Washington, DC: 1"-2"
Wilmington, DE: 1"-2"

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4 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The forecast 500 mb pattern on the 1/7/2020 0z NAM has some similarities to that which was present on January 20-21, 1994.

NAM010720200z.jpg

Snowfall amounts on January 20, 1994 were as follows for select locations:

Atlantic City: 0.2"; Baltimore: 3.1"; New York City: None; Philadelphia: 0.2"; and, Washington, DC: 1.9".

At that time, a bitter Arctic air mass covered the East. This time around, that won't be the case. So, snowfall amounts will likely be lighter in Baltimore and Washington than they were back in 1994.

At present, taking into consideration the latest guidance and the forecast 500 mb pattern with some modifications, likely snowfall amounts for the January 7-8 system for the Middle Atlantic region include:

Atlantic City: 1" or less
Baltimore: 1"-2"
Harrisburg: 1" or less
Islip: 0.5" or less
New York City: 0.5" or less
Newark: 0.5" or less
Philadelphia: 1" or less
Sterling: 1"-3"
Washington, DC: 1"-2"
Wilmington, DE: 1"-2"

Thanks Don.

I'm betting the over on Islip and AC. 

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16 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

I wouldn't say that just yet. This is really close to something interesting. The models this season have been horrendous.

Let’s be real, models are not going to drastically change this close to the event.

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Good originating post: I'll drop my observations herein.  I've added a statistical graphic from the NWS.  It doesn't necessarily reflect ensembles issued after 0811z/8. 

NAM may be a little too strong but decent dendrite growth seen for an hour or 2 tonight in our NY metro area... am a little concerned about rain at the start, before being overcome top down with a change to wet snow, especially NYC.   You'll see later model guidance after this post, which hopefully directs us to a reasonable expectation of reality.  Right now, am thinking anywhere from 1-4" ne PA and nw NJ based on all the guidance i've seen so far. (event between ~6P-2A tonight).

Enjoy the day,  Walt

 

Screen Shot 2020-01-07 at 4.58.45 AM.png

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