Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

January 10th-12th Winter Storm Potential


Thundersnow12
 Share

Recommended Posts

1 minute ago, jlauderdal said:

travelers advisory :D criteria 1-3 inches for chicago seems the best bet at this point for later today and tonight, the trends really working against anything more...if you are on the lakefront such as on the beach then you took the brunt of this monster otherwise it was a major bust

 

LOT 12:01 update still calling for 2-5". Even if it's a 1-3" fall really not a bust for chicago proper...unless your saying the amount of rainfall busted based on forecast. Which is fine by me. I'd rather not waste my winter QPF on nighttime rainstorms.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

 


It showed much deeper convection on the models than what we are seeing

 

There is an arc of deep convection from the Gulf into Canada. Moisture transport is not being hindered for anything currently ongoing.

As I mentioned, activity has just been more progressive than expected. Even going back to model guidance just from 24hrs ago, guidance was too slow with eastward progression and over-estimated training.

tran

 

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

At the end of the day, qpf is still one of the lower skilled attributes of the models.  But when you have a consensus for certain amounts, it is easy to get lulled into thinking it will happen.  So yes, there was underachievement depending on where you are, but the high totals are verifying or will come close in some areas. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, StormChaser4Life said:

This deformation band is looking pretty anemic. Unless it really blossoms later, snow totals will bust bad which already looked bleak with a more organized band

It's actually performing fairly well down southwest, with widespread 2-5" reports.

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

37 minutes ago, UMB WX said:

Its been pixie here here up until a few mins ago when a few dendi's started mixing in.  round 2 should start up in a hr or so if reading the euro right and start to tail off between 9-10pm.

We’ve had on and off flakes since I woke up (aka the kids woke me up) this morning. At times it has actually looked pretty legit. It’s still only accumulated about an inch on the grass. Whatever happens this evening, I’m just glad we didn’t get the ice.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
305 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2020


.SHORT TERM...
305 PM CST

Through tonight...

...Winter Weather...

Our period of heavy snow this evening continues to be main focus
of the forecast this afternoon.

A band of moderate to heavy snow has been ongoing over parts of
western MO the last couple hours. This is the the area in which
the strongest large scale and mesoscale forcing for ascent are
coinciding as the main mid/large scale impulse shifts eastward.
This heavy snow has produced up to 1" inch per hour rates for the
past few hours at KMCI (Kansas City), with a total of 3 inches of
snow within only as mainly hours. Visibilities were also reported
to drop briefly to 1/8 of a mile in heavy snow. Given these
upstream trends, I see no reason why our area will not experience
similar conditions this evening as the main upper level impulse
moves over our area. In fact, the dynamics over our area this
evening could even end up being a bit stronger than those observed
over western MO. This is because the main mid-level trough is
expected to begin to take on a bit of a negative tilt as it
approaches the area this evening. This in turn should help sharpen
the lower level circulation pattern, and result in an enhanced
band of low-mid level frontogenesis. The strong dynamics will
also coincide with a corridor of steeper mid-level lapse rates,
which will also aid in heavier banding.

Overall, while light precipitation has been ongoing across the
area for much of the day, expect more substantial precipitation
to rapidly blossom over the area over the next few hours, as the
better dynamics begins shifting over the area. The precipitation
will likely begin as a wintry mix of sleet, snow and possibly
some rain, especially along and east of the I-55 corridor. The
snow will be moderate to heavy at times, especially between 6 and
9 pm this evening, when 1" per hour rates are likely. North-
northeasterly winds are expected to ease a bit during the period
of heavy snow, though they will likely remain gusty up around 30
to 35 mph, especially near the lake. For this reason, some blowing
and drifting snow could aid in significantly reducing
visibilities for a period this evening. Total snowfall amounts of
3 to 5 inches are likely, with the highest amounts expected right
across northeastern IL. Lighter amounts are likely farther to the
south and east into northwestern IN. The snow is still expected to
tapper off from southwest to northeast shortly after midnight.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...