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January 10th-12th Winter Storm Potential


Thundersnow12
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11 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

what a disaster of a system forecast wise...will the public even take seriously the next event thanks to media and social media hype from this one

1) Snow totals busted..(deform band may save the day in a few places)

2) No widespread Massive ice 

3) no 3-5 inches of rain up north

4)  No overnight Tornado outbreak over the south from discrete cells ahead of the line (just spin ups within the line)

 

right on track in mby. If I get 3" in the back end. Went as planned. Actually, surprised went to frozen so quickly..albiet light.

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2 hours ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

The backside better be rocking or everyone is going to embarrassingly bust.
 

(Poor WI crew, from a 20” big dog to advisory levels in a couple models runs hours before onset) 

WSW downgraded to WWA for Dane. This system has confirmed for me that models are pointless. I quit.

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well we have now switched from sleet to freezing rain - finally. I didnt actually think we would get FZRA because it went right to sleet and the low is going well south of here.

Not a lot of icing going on though, temp is 31.6. Hopefully we can keep the FZRA while temp lowers a bit more. I am still hoping for .5" if ice...but not expecting it.

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On 1/8/2020 at 6:28 PM, Hoosier said:

Ok, I searched January for 2" precip, 1.0" snow storm combos in Chicago history.  I know, low bar on the snow amount lol.  But even setting a measly threshold of 1" snow, it's rare... like really rare.  

We'll throw this one on the list even though it started on New Years Eve...

12/31/1890 to 1/2/1891:  2.03" precip, 3.0" snow

and...

1/26/1967 to 1/27/1967:  2.40" precip, 23.0" snow

So I'm not sure what to think.  Either something pretty unusual is on the verge of happening or the 2" precip amount or 1" snow amount will get derailed.  Guess we'll find out in a few days.

Looks like it will be the 2" precip that fails.  Only 1.15" at ORD so far for the 10th-11th and not going to get enough precip later to get to 2"

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30 minutes ago, ChiTownStorm11 said:

It's undeniable that the GFS won this storm. It has been showing the southern solution for days.

It sure seems like the early GFS ideas of a more SE/weaker track is going to win out. It would appear that my "Euro is king" call, along with the NW trend, was premature. Overall, models were pretty disappointing for this storm.

Feel bad for the NWS offices that will take the brunt of the criticism from the less meteorologically educated public.

 

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All indications are for a period of mod-hvy snow later, but questions about how long mixing hangs on and temps hanging around 32 for part of the snow (thanks to marine influence) make me hesitant to go above 2-3".  If both of the above factors break favorably, then could get a bit more.

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6 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

This really isn’t that shocking. Huge severe outbreak in the South robbed this thing of a lot of its moisture. I posted a few days ago about how it may rob the cold side of the storm and sure enough that’s what’s happening

That's not whats happening so far. The arc of rain has been more progressive, instead of training.

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