ILSNOW Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 1 minute ago, Cary67 said: Light sleet here Light snow here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Down to 34 and getting some sleet mixed in here after 1.38" of rain overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlauderdal Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 16 hours ago, Hoosier said: That would be a pleasant surprise. we have transitioned to mostly snow in naperville, flake size very anemic bit still its snow and not liquid, saw plenty of that last night, was sleet last few hours...my prediction for later tonight, someone gets a flurry fest while 30 miles away they get 4+, there is a screw job on the way somewhere..does seem that this snow has started earlier than forecasted a mere 12 hours ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 The backside better be rocking or everyone is going to embarrassingly bust. (Poor WI crew, from a 20” big dog to advisory levels in a couple models runs hours before onset) 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 See attached wind and temperature profiles this morning for my location. Couple of things of note. The actual wind change generally to the NE occurred at a wind lull. The wind change well proceeded the actual temperature drop although a sharp gust occurred at the exact moment of the sudden temperature drop. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 was spot on with my wave 1 call of 3.3" but I'm going to bust hard with wave 2. Looking more like an inch, maybe 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlauderdal Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 downtown chicago could be the big winner but why start believing the models now, they have all overcooked this system for days but they have a chance to redeem themselves the next 16 hours 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LansingWeather Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Wow. Ice Storm may be DOA... Switched from rain to sleet right as the temp was 32.4, now 100% sleet with slight accumulation at 32.0. Not a good sign. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 The summary so far is guidance sucked, and an under-performance just about everywhere in every aspect...almost.Only things that seem to be panning out are the high winds and a corridor in MO/IL/IN that did as expected with rainfall.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveNay Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 5 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: The summary so far is guidance sucked, and an under-performance just about everywhere in every aspect...almost. Only things that seem to be panning out are the high winds and a corridor in MO/IL/IN that did as expected with rainfall. . Weather Channel has Cantore in Milwaukee and Paul Goodlow in St Charles, IL Will be interesting to see if they are still doing live shots in 12 hours or if they pack up and go home. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Snowing in Beecher IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter Man Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 4.4" call looking money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoboy645 Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 So I went from a bonafide winter storm warning and like 10" of snow, to not even being in the ADVISORY. This sucks. A lot. 3 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 It's all about the defo band now..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 14 minutes ago, Geoboy645 said: So I went from a bonafide winter storm warning and like 10" of snow, to not even being in the ADVISORY. This sucks. A lot. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 43 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: The summary so far is guidance sucked, and an under-performance just about everywhere in every aspect...almost. Only things that seem to be panning out are the high winds and a corridor in MO/IL/IN that did as expected with rainfall. . I see no one rushing to post new run cycles of various models 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Just now, Cary67 said: I see no one rushing to post new run cycles of various models No real point now given how terrible guidance is, just a guessing game. Still a spread for later today/tonight. Metro could get 1-3" or 4-7". Who knows anymore... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Lol, 1.3 rainer still on table Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Just now, A-L-E-K said: Lol, 1.3 rainer still on table Not even close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michaelmantis Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 5 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: No real point now given how terrible guidance is, just a guessing game. Still a spread for later today/tonight. Metro could get 1-3" or 4-7". Who knows anymore... This thread will either turn into pictures of 20 foot waves on Lake Michigan or people’s brown backyards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 MKE office just going to ride their forecast to the ground in the warning. Hard to make drastic changes but the trends haven't been conducive to hitting their early AM update. Their ketchup bottle is going to be empty after this event. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveNay Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 5 minutes ago, michaelmantis said: This thread will either turn into pictures of 20 foot waves on Lake Michigan or people’s brown backyards. I can follow the dog out next time and take pictures.... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Just now, michaelmantis said: This thread will either turn into pictures of 20 foot waves on Lake Michigan or people’s brown backyards. 13 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: No real point now given how terrible guidance is, just a guessing game. Still a spread for later today/tonight. Metro could get 1-3" or 4-7". Who knows anymore... You've followed winter weather quite awhile. What percentage of these WSWs or WWAs do you think end up meeting the criteria? Ball park estimate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Bold graphic here from LOT. Talking about the **potential** of 6 inches falling in a 4 hour timespan at ORD (and still snowing after that). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 what a disaster of a system forecast wise...will the public even take seriously the next event thanks to media and social media hype from this one 1) Snow totals busted..(deform band may save the day in a few places) 2) No widespread Massive ice 3) no 3-5 inches of rain up north 4) No overnight Tornado outbreak over the south from discrete cells ahead of the line (just spin ups within the line) 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Just walked to the market to get lasagna supplies, winds are quality for sure. Will jeb walk to get wave shots later if this wintery sandblast mix turns to all snow 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 LE ongoing in SE. WI and NE. IL. That should bode well for enhancement of snows later. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Yeah, there is plenty of evidence for a 2-3 hour period of heavy snow this evening. The latest RAP shows strong lift (best just above the DGZ) and banding potential. The lake should also continue to contribute with 0-1km lapse rates near 10C/km (when modified for lake temps). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 12 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: LE ongoing in SE. WI and NE. IL. That should bode well for enhancement of snows later. This is really interesting. I think there is some seeding from above going on. Aircraft soundings from ORD, MDW and MKE show temps around 1KM up -4 to -5C but there is about 5000' of temps above freezing above that. I'd have thought the light precip from the higher cloud layers would entirely melt before being able to seed the lake-effect precip, but maybe not given the snow reports? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter Man Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Have had flurries consistently the past two hours, along with a brief shot of heavier snow when the axis of a LE band passed through. About a tenth of an inch down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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