Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

January 10th-12th Winter Storm Potential


Thundersnow12
 Share

Recommended Posts

21 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Something I never do but I guarantee this frontal position is too far north around the southern tip of Lake Michigan.  Don't see it happening with the chilly lake and precip and main surface low so far away.

 sfct.us_mw.thumb.png.fa4afc7cd550ea8d270690e719e6ea15.png

I would have bumped this even if I was wrong.

chi_sfc.gif.a41df52cd1f8e9ccb3a4351519dae6c7.gif

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, LansingWeather said:

based on the obs it looks even warmer than advertised. Is that what you were saying?

Talking about the boundary location in extreme nw IN.  It was progged to basically be on top of KGYY, KIGQ but it is a bit south.  South of KIKK too.

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Since UKMET has seemingly performed very well with this event based off 00z consensus of the surface low track and deformation axis orientation being close to what it's consistently shown the past few days of runs, I'm inclined to buy it. We do have to account for the risk that the moisture transport gets robbed into the defo zone as cyclone alluded to. Hopefully the high res models that explicitly forecast convection have a clue on that.

It appears the higher resolution guidance is also trying to resolve mesoscale banding due to strengthening low and mid level frontogenesis over the area later in the afternoon into the evening, especially at the 850 mb level. So some of the irregularity to the QPF field may be related to trying to resolve areas of subsidence outside the banding.

Assuming things don't fall apart, which is possible, there could be a 3-5/4-6 hour period of legit winter conditions with mod-heavy snow and blowing snow centered on the evening. Wouldn't be surprised to have near blizzard conditions in open areas.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Excellent post, Ricky.  TYVM.

Playing out up here along the lake pretty much worst case scenario but that was a plausible outcome to.    Playing out like rd 1 did also did us no favors for round 2.

Still cool to see chicago back in play for a nice snowy finish.  The ones you real in last minute are always super gratifying.   

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, H2Otown_WX said:

Yep, I'm here at the airport now. Looks like it will be predominantly rain tonight.

It was definitely a possibility parts of racine and kenosha cty could get shut out. I didn't think all of mke county would basically get shut out though. Never expected much from my place north in to mke but  an inch of slop or so didn't seem like it would be hard to come by north of me.

 

6pm zone forecast still rode with.  After midnight 1-2" of snow and sleet.. some  zr rain and some blowing snow possible to boot.  That was clearly not  going to materialize. 9:30 update corrected and  will make for a nice morning commute now for some that we're expecting a small mess to deal with.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Current hrrr is way off on temps. Currently in 30s here and hrrr showing 45. But looks like 1st wave of precip will be gone regardless before I drop enough. Have to wait on deformation band 

as of  2am "only" 1.47 inches at PIA. and 2.39 at BMI...and 1.99 at SPI 

impressive for JAN but not the widespread 3-5 in the models a couple of days ago

 

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, LansingWeather said:

what do you mean? Still looks like a serious ice storm from what I have seen...?


*** Freezing Rain is forecast - but a major ice storm is unlikely
    for our area ***

Pcpn type a little further south along the I-96 corridor will
begin to transition from rain to freezing rain and sleet during
the mid to late morning hours (around 14Z to 16Z) as increasingly
brisk nne winds advect low level colder air in. Significant
impacts from freezing rain (and sleet) are forecast with
potential for freezing rain accumulations of around a quarter to
perhaps a third of an inch near KGRR and a third of an inch to a
half an inch east of KGRR.

The relatively highest amounts of freezing rain (of up to around
a half an inch) are forecast where fzra is most persistent from
near KLAN (as suggested by 00Z HREF FRAM ensemble mean for
accretion) northward to Alma. Expected impacts include significant
power outages and tree damage where fzra is most persistent with
amounts closer to a half an inch.

Bottom line... it is noted that a consensus of virtually all
latest hi res model guidance and global models are overall less
bullish with potential fzra accums as compared to what the guidance
was showing 24 to 48 hours ago. So a major ice storm is not
forecast. Even so... a quarter to half inch of freezing rain
accumulation in conjunction with falling temps later today through
tonight will have significant impacts. Potential for a longer
period of sleet will also limit freezing rain accumulations
somewhat.

For our southern fcst area near the I-94 corridor pcpn will fall
as plain rain for much of the day before finally transtioning to
sleet/fzra for a period late this aftn/eve.

 

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

It’s not saying much... personally a half to third of an inch of ice would be considered major but who am I? 
 

the biggest thing I’m noticing is temps are over-performing around here (55° on my thermometer). Latest guidance shows us at 33° here with rain for most of the day tomorrow. (Unfortunately this goes against ALL local Mets if it becomes true). Lansing ends up around 31-32° with heavy rain by about 18z.. problem is - latent heat, sun angle, time of day and warm temperatures tonight - all put a damper on what was expected to be a major event. 
 

GRR’s latest thinking is taking the ice all the way to GRR (where temps will be ~30° by 12z tomorrow.) That is roughly a 40-60 mile jump west than previously forecast, but I feel due to the lack of forecast models showing current temps aoa 50° at the current hour, we know what the outcome is shaping up to be for the area.   

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Very balmy January morning at 53 at my location in E-Central Jackson county. The wind just switched to the NE in the last few minutes and the temperature is dropping after 1.37" of rain overnight. The overnight rainfall slightly over performed guidance which is a little ominous as a record crest is currently forecast for the Grand River in the city of Jackson. https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo=grr&gage=jacm4  Flooding there is extremely unusual. Lots of heavy rain on the radar remains upstream.  Guidance differs on how much precipitation remains to fall and exactly when the freezing rain will reach this fall South. Winds gusting to 30 mph out of Northern Michigan just to the North of my location certainly suggests temps will have no problem falling the rest of the day.  Guessing about 1/2" of ice followed by 2" of snow which will make for some good photo opportunities tomorrow morning for sure. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, janetjanet998 said:

as of  2am "only" 1.47 inches at PIA. and 2.39 at BMI...and 1.99 at SPI 

impressive for JAN but not the widespread 3-5 in the models a couple of days ago

 

 

Yea seems like instead of the rain training along the same areas all night, it ended up pushing east quicker than new bands of rain could pull northeast. Curious to see if this deformation band will materialize over us or not

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...