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January 10th-12th Winter Storm Potential


Thundersnow12
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This is a difficult forecast for my area as well.  Models are trending nw a bit with the snow/sleet line this evening and overnight.  Frankly, it's looking like Cedar Rapids may end up with a bunch of sleet, which sucks.

Regarding wave #2, while the globals have trended southeast, the CAMs continue to insist on a farther nw track of the deformation zone, right through Iowa.

My guess is I will get very little snow tonight and maybe 2-3" tomorrow.

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I guess with all the recent variability, I prefer my spot of low expectations with the arrow pointing up, as opposed to expecting a heavy snow scenario, albeit with high bust potential.  Those are the worst when it busts. I'll just watch the trends, and hope that the cold air finds its way into far NWI while moisture is aplenty.  

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Just now, SchaumburgStormer said:

GFS drier/East 

 

Big time disappointment for our WI guys lined up for a big dog. 

Yeah this is pretty dissapointing, I mean 6-8" isnt a minor storm, but it's not the foot that was looking to happen at one point. Ahh well I'll try to enjoy this one and he who knows maybe that GFS run will come to fruititon.^_^

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1 minute ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

GFS drier/East 

 

Big time disappointment for our WI guys lined up for a big dog. 

Yeah not sure what to think of it.  May be leaning more toward the CAMs because they can resolve all the convection occurring to the south but there is still more uncertainty at this point than I'd like.

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7 minutes ago, ILSNOW said:

Thinking Chicago NWS should replace Winter storm warning with an advisory and drop the areas under a watch and probably will when/if the euro follows thru like the rest of the 12Z guidance 

looks to me like they simply converted watches to advisories. Which was alluded to in this morning's discussion.

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Feeling pretty good about getting some snow.  Fairly low confidence on amounts though.  I think about 1" is worst case but if things go better, maybe more like 2-4"

Ground will be very wet of course but many hours will be spent around 33-35 degrees before that, with temps dropping pretty quickly after.  

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