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January 10th-12th Winter Storm Potential


Thundersnow12
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6 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

12z Canadian and UK are both southeast and faster/weaker.  Both models have removed anything significant for Iowa.  My area is still on the nw edge of the snow on the GFS.

For us, it's down to the Euro and NAM.

GEM is big on the ice for your area though.

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2 hours ago, RCNYILWX said:

January 12, 1960

The precip will bridge Friday and Saturday so it may be tough to do the daily record but maybe a decent chance to set an unofficial record for 2-day total for the month of January.

The calendar day precip record for meteorological winter is *probably* safe lol. 4.47" on December 2, 1982.

Here's the link to the attached Chicago's daily record listings for January and then you can access the other months from there:

https://www.weather.gov/lot/January_Daily_Records_Chicago

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

for the River level forecasts:

Do you happen to know if they used 48 hour rainfall (12z today thru 12z Sat) or used the full 3 days on the WPC forecast (another inch or so after 12z Sat)

it is obviously not just the  next 24 hours like it says in the wording

Have family members that get isolated when the river hits 25.8 at PIA

crest 23.4 just issued

 

right now it looks like the SE part of the IL river basin gets 4 inches(with that much also falling south of the basin.. the rest 1-3...

of course a shift in the heavy band will affect the levels

i think it will shift south 

 

 

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1 minute ago, Malacka11 said:

The euro is basically just drowning Chicagoland in freezing rain at this point. It makes my mind smolder to think that a couple degrees temperature change is all that separates us from a foot of snow. 

Low track is further south than the last run. 

 

Edit: disregard. Ends up pretty close to earlier run. 

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2 hours ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

Really tough situation for IWX about the MI counties, could get nuclear ice or all rain 

I bet they go Watch for their MI counties for ice concerns Saturday. I could see them including northern tier of IN counties and then deciding on upgrades later. I really think the state line is going to be the dividing line between cold rain and freezing rain/sleet.  

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I think the general rule of thumb is to underestimate the northward extent of the warm front, especially in situations with convection to the south. The Euro/Canadian seems to place the warm front too far north. I think the NAM 3km is the better solution.

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