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January 10th-12th Winter Storm Potential


Thundersnow12
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Lake Michigan shore is going to take a beating even if this backs down a little. 

floop-ecmwf_full-2020010900.925wh.us_mw.gif.e2f0bbabd23f629447265459bdf9401f.gif

Most of this will probably get down to the surface with it only being at 925 mb.  A bad combination with the ice.  I think excessive wind during freezing rain actually hurts accretion rates a bit, but perhaps somebody can chime in.  I think the most "ideal" scenario is to accrete and then bring in the big winds.  

 

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1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

The 6z NAM actually looks like it increased ice amounts in N IL.  Very concerning because a lot could be lost to runoff but it would still end up being a big deal in tandem with the wind.

IWX pointing out that the NAM is bad for ice throughout their northern CWA, the just above ground temps are below freezing

Have favored the cooler models for the shallow cold air Saturday
that originally included just the GFS, but now the NAM is showing
a very shallow layer of cold air just above the surface that will
likely be below freezing for several hours. Believe the greatest
winter weather impact if the surface temperatures are cold enough
will be from freezing rain. NAM BUFKIT 00Z and 06Z runs showed
several hours of freezing rain Saturday into Saturday night. After
coordination with Chicago and Grand Rapids NWS offices have
greatly increased ice amounts. Given the strong upper level system
just reaching the Calif coast, concern that upper level sampling
of this system may still be lacking, so confidence was not high
enough to post a winter storm watch for ice. Otherwise, Sunday
will be dry with highs in the 30s. Travel late Saturday and Saturday
night may become hazardous depending on weather types and pavement
temperatures.
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6 hours ago, RCNYILWX said:

Starting to wonder if this event will have similarities to the 12/28/15 major sleet event. The cold press from the north will be similar and in that event we were coming off an incredibly torchy month. We were more concerned about icing threat and sleet became the much bigger deal except near and south of I-80.

 

 

 

 

Funny I always thought that was the day after Christmas. Type of event you get in a poor winter. 2" of sleet that hangs on until March. Days of looking at dirty sleet with temps in the '20's...I can feel it too. Ugh.

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1 minute ago, A-L-E-K said:

I think your back end thump might be more of a dry hump with the defo north into wisc

This is the type of storm that very well  look like you missed the back end show. Than you get caught by a tail end squall and get your quick 2". Desperate times call for desperate calls.

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3 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

I hate to break it to you all, but WTC is giving me 6-10 inches of snow as of now so... You're wrong.

I saw that. That's how you drive viewership in the weather game these days. Make sure that 6-10" line cuts through a huge media market. I'm sure mets submitted their forecast, and then told to massage it.

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5 minutes ago, Baum said:

I saw that. That's how you drive viewership in the weather game these days. Make sure that 6-10" line cuts through a huge media market. I'm sure mets submitted their forecast, and then told to massage it.

It's a blended/ensemble product that takes all the guidance into account.

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1 minute ago, purduewx80 said:

It's a blended/ensemble product that takes all the guidance into account.

Ha. That's another way to make it work!:rolleyes: In truth, I was kidding a touch. I trust what Cantore posts from TWC is their legit take. If only..it panned out

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1 minute ago, Baum said:

Ha. That's another way to make it work!:rolleyes: In truth, I was kidding a touch. I trust what Cantore posts from TWC is their legit take. If only..it panned out

haha yeah I figured you were.

06Z ECMWF held serve with mostly a mix for Chicago and +SN in WI. I tend to think it will perform better with the -PNA and trough digging S just off the West Coast, but a model blend is still reasonable this far out. 

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4 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

WAA is always under done, especially with massive troughs like this and i think the low is gonna end up over the southern tip of the lake, Madison still the spot to be IMO

MSN will definitely do well. MTW to SBM is probably the sweet spot with lake enhancement.

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We're thinking sleet will be a much bigger issue in our area. The surface pattern and progged 925 mb cold drain are eerily similar to 12/28/15. Check out the reanalysis page on weather.us to compare to the model consensus for this event. Due to the warm start to the season, the lake is fairly mild for this time of year, so maybe the lakeshore struggles more with p-type. But west of the city, selling the huge ice totals on the verbatim web based outputs.

With the surface low strengthening to sub 1000 mb well south of us and nearly 1040 mb high to the north that's an ideal setup to drive the low level cold wedge southward on strong northeasterly flow aloft. Depending on the exact track of the surface low, there could be a potent WAA surge toward Saturday evening that may flip areas back to ZR or even plain rain.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

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