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January 10th-12th Winter Storm Potential


Thundersnow12
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3 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

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What a tough forecast. So many intricacies to it that we won't have a really good handle on probably til Thursday. I'm not doing the grids and AFD for the storm tonight but we're in good hands with my colleague who is taking it on.

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Pretty wild run for parts of the area.  As far as ORD, that much rain and that much snow is not easy to pull off in the same storm. 

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24 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

It’ll be interesting to watch how guidance trends, with how the main wave is being handled now.


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At this point LOT doesnt seem to give NAM solution much weight. Low probability of heavy ice accretion due to several factors. Heavier precip rates, possible convective element producing sleet, wet bulb temps 28-30F and latent heat making it less likely. Looked for lighter ice accums far NW. Low confidence in deformation band swinging through Sat with snow but kept it as possible. Only thing that seems locked in is a lot of cold rain

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1 minute ago, mimillman said:

Notice how the high ice shield is continuously moving East on guidance as models slowly trend towards more reasonable amounts given the extremely marginal thermals. I anticipate that high ice shield keeps moving East until it’s gone 

You getting hyped to watch woodstock get buried while we watch pingers try to accumulate over 1" of standing water? I know I am!

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While a primarily rain event is very much in the cards with a painful miss just north/northwest, it's still well within the envelope of possibility for the deformation snows to nail much of the Chicago metro at this range, particularly I-55 and northwest. As has already been mentioned, there have been important changes in the handling of the southern wave. Also, convection has been known to mess with mass fields of systems, along with the possibility of robbing some of the moisture transport. And there will be a ton of convection south of here with this system.

 

There very well could be an area of warning criteria ice somewhere in interior northern Illinois. However, as laid out in Carlaw's AFD, there are so many points of uncertainty with that aspect of forecast 3 days out. There's reason to doubt huge ice accums with very heavy precip rates forecast, and possibility convection causes more sleet. That said, with the strengthening northerly winds Friday night into Saturday, it won't take huge ice accums to cause significant issues with falling tree limbs and power outages.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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33 minutes ago, Moosey2323 said:

I still think the icing needs to be taken with a grain of salt. The precip rates are going to be quite high. The NAM is definitely overdoing it.

True....We were on the freezing rain side of GHD Chicago Blizzard.   They issued an icestorm warning and Kasich, (who was our gov at the time), held an emergency new conference to warn of the impending ice disaster.    As the rain moved in we started getting some accretion the first hour or two...after that the rain got heavy and in spite of the below freezing temps the heavy rain killed the icestorm.   The best icestorms happen with prolonged light rain.   

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14 minutes ago, buckeye said:

True....We were on the freezing rain side of GHD Chicago Blizzard.   They issued an icestorm warning and Kasich, (who was our gov at the time), held an emergency new conference to warn of the impending ice disaster.    As the rain moved in we started getting some accretion the first hour or two...after that the rain got heavy and in spite of the below freezing temps the heavy rain killed the icestorm.   The best icestorms happen with prolonged light rain.   

mostly agree, i think you can overcome heavy rates, even convection, if you are dealing with extremely cold surfaces on the heels of an arctic outbreak (which isn't the case here obv)

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