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January 10th-12th Winter Storm Potential


Thundersnow12
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18 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Epic ice/snowstorm.

Axis of 12”+ snow, and 1-2”+ ice.

And it’s still going at 84hr, end of run.


.

What is interesting is the CAA really starts to strengthen from 66-84hr turning a lot of the rain to freezing rain. It would be interesting if A. this is a start of a trend and B. what would happen beyond that. With all the convection that will be south, it wouldn't surprise me to see the low further south as well especially if the system doesn't take a negative tilt which the NAM didn't do.

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35 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Epic ice/snowstorm.

Axis of 12”+ snow, and 1-2”+ ice.

And it’s still going at 84hr, end of run.


.

but most of the ice falls in a rather  short time...heavy rates..a lot won't freeze and just run off

The huge Oklahoma to MO/AR ice storms are usually consistent light to moderate overrunning events that sometime last 2 days..but on the flip side usually with light winds

 

 

 

 

 

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GFS & Euro not on the same page, particularly for Iowa/Wisconsin.  The GFS is faster with the southern energy and remains more connected to the northern energy racing across Canada, so the system gets tilted positive and is yanked more eastward.  The 12z Euro was slower with the southern energy and the two streams remain more detached, allowing the southern wave to cut to the lakes as the northern energy gets out of the way.

GFS-Euro.gif.d7279116427104ab3996c9b0c6d31597.gif

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Tonight's model runs that followed the NAM had a tough act to follow to be sure.  
Wintry side of the storm seems very thread-the-needle like, so it's going to be a few more days before I'd feel comfortable about how things will lay out on the wintry side of the system.


What a tough forecast. So many intricacies to it that we won't have a really good handle on probably til Thursday. I'm not doing the grids and AFD for the storm tonight but we're in good hands with my colleague who is taking it on.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

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