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January 10th-12th Winter Storm Potential


Thundersnow12
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1 minute ago, A-L-E-K said:

duh

 

tone serious: this looks like a rainer tho, antecedent airmass is trash and the western trough is gonna crank heights. madison special incoming.

The air mass is the cold air pressing in not the prefrontal airmass which is why there is a lot of ice being shown especially with the multiple piece setup it is showing.

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12 and 18z runs of the GFS have me thinking of Feb. and March for this weekend.  60 degrees initially here in central IN with heavy rain from here south to the Ohio river and ice and snow to the north and west.  I usually don't start thinking of ice storms till Feb..  Gonna be an interesting storm to watch develop this weekend.

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56 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I don't know, I think those water temps might be cold enough to get ice to the lake but this is assuming the ice band ends up somewhere in the metro.

Ice lakeside is so so hard to do, and the one time it did happen was a much different setup, I'd say toss

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I haven't committed to anything...yet.

Recent trends the past few weeks suggest weaker/strung out/not phased has been the rule, as Hoosier said above. However, we are about to transition into the new pattern though...so maybe that changes...or not?

At the same time, a deep/slow trough with no blocking (+AO/NAO) says well NW/stronger is in play too.

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1 minute ago, Snowstorms said:

It's been a couple years since we've had a proper storm. Therefore, trends would favour a weaker storm lol. 

https://www.weather.gov/lot/21Nov2015snowfall

This was the last time I was in a 6"+ storm. I was royally screwed in November 2018 when I left for Champaign one day before that storm since classes were starting. I've seen warning-level accums miss to the north, south, east, and west.

In general though winters at 40 degrees north in the Midwest just !@$%#ing suck. IMO, it's the worst climate in all of North America. 30s-40s and rain for four months of the year but you still get blasted with Arctic air and maybe a 1-3" clipper if you're lucky before it melts away a few days later.

I start work in a few weeks so I bet winter will blow its load as soon as I start commuting.

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