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January 10th-12th Winter Storm Potential


Thundersnow12
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Our eventual southern stream wave is still well out across the western PAC apart of a strong upper level low and as Hoosier mentioned in the other thread, might be several days until models get a good grasp on things with it not coming ashore till 12z Thursday and will be a fairly fast moving/low amplitude wave as it moves through the GOA on Wednesday. 

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Ahh looks like a classic Panhandle Hook on the horizon. I'd be pretty happy if I were in Chicago or Milwaukee, other points east are going to be in a much stickier ball game. 

 

Also the PWAT's on this look absolutely insane, the moisture rush out of the gulf could lead to an epic ice storm in the battleground. Definitely has the look of a big dog storm

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Seasonal trends would take this thing south and east, as every other pan handle hooker has done since early November.  While it's current track is favorable for the heart of the sub, seems too good to be true with how this season has gone.  

But I guess it's gotta change, and go against the grain at some point.....

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9 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

Ahh looks like a classic Panhandle Hook on the horizon. I'd be pretty happy if I were in Chicago or Milwaukee, other points east are going to be in a much stickier ball game. 

 

Also the PWAT's on this look absolutely insane, the moisture rush out of the gulf could lead to an epic ice storm in the battleground. Definitely has the look of a big dog storm

Pretty nice subtropical jet stream influence. If this storm pans out, it'll be a decent storm for some. Been a while since we've seen a storm like this. 

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Agreed, especially since these tend to come in a little deeper than just about any other low pressure type that affects the region. The icing potential could be staggering however, especially for Indy, Detroit, Toledo, Cleveland and the GTA. Someone is going to get a ton in the freezing rain/sleet department if this pans out

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23 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

The top analog based on 12z runs.

NARR 4-Panel2008020618_FZRA48.png

The Super Tuesday storm.

I think you can make arguments either way -- north trend or south -- for this one.  As has been pointed out, the seasonal tendency has been to end up weaker/less phased than the med/long range progs suggest.  But since we aren't really looking for a phase in this case, perhaps we won't see the same magnitude of petering out that we've become used to. 

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