ORH_wxman Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 RAP starting to tickle NW the last couple runs....22z now gets Jimmy with the edge of that CCB band. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Just now, ORH_wxman said: RAP starting to tickle NW the last couple runs....22z now gets Jimmy with the edge of that CCB band. It does seem like there's a touch more precipitation further northwest than modeled with that 700mb frontogenesis band (it's snowing at KISP), model products seem to have the lift there but they have it very dry, maybe it's a bit more moist than progged? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Just now, OSUmetstud said: It does seem like there's a touch more precipitation further northwest than modeled with that 700mb frontogenesis band (it's snowing at KISP), model products seem to have the lift there but they have it very dry, maybe it's a bit more moist than progged? Yeah I think they maybe overplayed the dry air....this isn't a classic dry air scenario either....not like we have ripping N or NW winds in the midlevels. And the sfc def ins't a dry north drain....winds are off the water, albeit light. Soundings do show some midlevel dry air, but it doesn't appear that it is that hard to overcome with this precip shield. Just about every model had zero measurable on LI until after 00z...GFS had a couple hundreths. We'll see how heavy that stuff actually is. Aren't a lot of stations out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Yeah I think they maybe overplayed the dry air....this isn't a classic dry air scenario either....not like we have ripping N or NW winds in the midlevels. And the sfc def ins't a dry north drain....winds are off the water, albeit light. Soundings do show some midlevel dry air, but it doesn't appear that it is that hard to overcome with this precip shield. Just about every model had zero measurable on LI until after 00z...GFS had a couple hundreths. We'll see how heavy that stuff actually is. Aren't a lot of stations out there. Will I know lightning has a significant role in these storms. With the explosion over the last two hours, and especially in the last hour, with 200 plus additional strikes every 20 minutes off the East Coast in the warm sector where the instability support has really gotten going today as the secondary low developed and starts to intensify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Parts of Maryland has several inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah I think they maybe overplayed the dry air....this isn't a classic dry air scenario either....not like we have ripping N or NW winds in the midlevels. And the sfc def ins't a dry north drain....winds are off the water, albeit light. Soundings do show some midlevel dry air, but it doesn't appear that it is that hard to overcome with this precip shield. Just about every model had zero measurable on LI until after 00z...GFS had a couple hundreths. We'll see how heavy that stuff actually is. Aren't a lot of stations out there. My driveway camera shows flurries but I could be hallucinating and I’m not overly excited enough to go outside to do the ole ‘finger to light’ check. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 I’m expecting 1-2” here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Just now, Snow88 said: Parts of Maryland has several inches Philadelphia higher elevations have over 7" of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 I guess Jimmy has gotten over the tornado scare...he’s back to exploding lows and Rapid Intensification of everything In sight. The real Jimmy is back from his subdued hiatus. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 4 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Will I know lightning has a significant role in these storms. With the explosion over the last two hours, and especially in the last hour, with 200 plus additional strikes every 20 minutes off the East Coast in the warm sector where the instability support has really gotten going today as the secondary low developed and starts to intensify. We have a strict no masturbating while posting policy, here. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianW Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Looks like the CT shoreline east of HVN might get in on this first band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Expecting no more than mood flakes here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Just now, OSUmetstud said: We have a strict no masturbating while posting policy, here. I’ve been wondering why my ‘warning level’ is practically maxed out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 7 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: I guess Jimmy has gotten over the tornado scare...he’s back to exploding lows and Rapid Intensification of everything In sight. The real Jimmy is back from his subdued hiatus. Pats are done, so power outages aren't a concern anymore. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 2 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: Expecting no more than mood flakes here Yup. A Dusting would be a win for the inland peeps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 I am starting to believe that Kevin might be right with his area seeing at least 1-2" tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Man that LI stuff is so close to me. Cmon little storm you can do it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Look at the Islip, NY radar imagery, its showing a huge plume of moisture heading northward, even a little NNW motion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 Ramp it up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 Snow moon out there tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 Man I remember the CCB slamming CC on 12/26/04 when even myself in GHG had like 8”. Absolutely grid and tree destroying paste job. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 Just now, CoastalWx said: Man I remember the CCB slamming CC on 12/26/04 when even myself in GHG had like 8”. Absolutely grid and tree destroying paste job. That was an awesome storm. I was tracking it the week before Christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Ramp it up Decent move northwest compared to 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 Our surface low is likely a few mbs below 1004.5mb reported as of 00z over the east shore of DE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 Fwiw Harvey is talking dusting in the city . Channel 7 said basically mood flakes to a Dusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 80/20 rain snow mix here. Forgot to check the ole thermometer .. it’s a balmy 38 out bleh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 Euro nice bump...... radar looks good.... I’m having a beer and hoping for the best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Euro nice bump...... radar looks good.... I’m having a beer and hoping for the best Man you are an interesting spot. Even here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spaizzo Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 Snowing here in Ansonia...light snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 Just drove through Blandford and there's actually a few flurries in the air...extremely few. Wasn't expecting anything around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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