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Jan 8th, 2020 Coastal - little critter


Baroclinic Zone
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2 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Still wayyy out of range..unless you're referring to early developments that could translate downstream

Not sure if he is comparing it to 12z? But every six hours it goes out to hour 33. So 18z is the most recent extended range HRRR. It also keep DC in the 40s and rain so I would take it with a grain of salt.

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3 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Still wayyy out of range..unless you're referring to early developments that could translate downstream

Yes that is the answer.  Man, you guys are unbelievable.  Look if you think isn't going to impact you, why are you in this thread, there are other discussions for those of you not interested.  However, this greatly impacts my area and any adjustments either way can lead to a higher or lower impact.  This storm is in an explosive environment, the system could explode upon hitting the Gulf Stream boundary and as it feels the trailing energy from the GRT Lakes dive into the southern branch trough.  We have a few ideas that suggests a benchmark track of a sub 990mb low is indeed still on the table, and this would bring the foot plus band onto the Cape and Islands.  It is right now 50 miles east of me.  That correction can happen in less than 42 hours.

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3 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

Not sure if he is comparing it to 12z? But every six hours it goes out to hour 33. So 18z is the most recent extended range HRRR. It also keep DC in the 40s and rain so I would take it with a grain of salt.

I was looking at the 19z run and when it was ending, it had the low down to 1011mb over VA.

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14 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Congrats DC

It's a shame how the storm looks good coming up and then all of a sudden it shunts east.

Trust me.  They ain’t getting much either.  BL issues down there.  The NAM has been the only run that’s shown anything crazy and the snow maps are overdone 

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18z Reggie ticked NW too....but man, these are excruciating moves. For far SE places like PYM/Cape and S RI....a couple more of these small ticks would actually get it done for perhaps advisory snows. For the rest of us, we'll need something more substantial...and SE MA will need it too if they want something closer to warning snows.

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