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Tuesday 1/7/20 Disco snow event


MountainGeek
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4 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Yeah, no snow obs in grass.

 

Here's a reason to still be positive.  This is the mesoanalysis from SPC at 10am.  Closed low in SW VA and NW NC with pressure falls in VA/NC and a convergence line south of Richmond.

Here is the 14z HRRR at noon.  Is there any world in which you can look at the current analysis and think that the low is going to be on the central WV/VA border?

 

Even better, here are the 10am obs from W/SW VA.  Forget the p-type and look at the wind direction.  The HRRR thinks that all of these locations should have E to SE winds right now.  It just isn't handling the low correctly.  So, it looks like the NAM is too cool ahead of the storm, but the HRRR isn't going to have the right track.  It is better to have the track than the temps right now.

451030512_Annotation2020-01-07102946.png.0de0410b7a38845f05e95e481b3961a2.png

 

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9 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

LOL the GFS has a middle finger of rain right through the DC area at 12 hours on the 12z run.  

There's just no way thats rain... 36F surface with a -3C 925mb? Maybe white rain, but no way thats plain rain.  IF (and a big IF) these models have the temp profiles right, I think many of them are missing the mark with p-type.

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The warm layer is so thin those of us E of 95 might be able to look up and watch our snowflakes melt.  Might be snowing at the top of the Legg Mason building in the innner harbor and raining on the street lol.

Side note, I wonder if thats ever happened somewhere with really tall buildings like NYC where the warm layer was so thin it was raining on the street but snowing on the tops of the ~1000ft+ buildings.

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