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Tuesday 1/7/20 Disco snow event


MountainGeek
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Still good to go :)

 

DCZ001-MDZ004>006-011-503>508-VAZ053-054-506-072315-
/O.CON.KLWX.WW.Y.0002.200107T1700Z-200108T0000Z/
District of Columbia-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-
Southern Baltimore-Northwest Montgomery-
Central and Southeast Montgomery-Northwest Howard-
Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford-Southeast Harford-
Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Eastern Loudoun-
1004 AM EST Tue Jan 7 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3
  inches, with locally higher amounts over northern Maryland.

* WHERE...The Baltimore and Washington metro area.

* WHEN...From noon to 7 PM EST Tuesday. The heaviest snow is
  expected between 2 PM and 6 PM.

* IMPACTS...Snow covered and slippery roads are expected. This
  will impact the evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow rates could exceed one inch per hour
  with visibility around one-quarter mile at times.
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32 minutes ago, batmanbrad said:

Only 10% chance, says NWS (recently updated snow maps), but we can dream of 5" up here in Laytonsville area...

image.thumb.png.8925007db2ee33b47edb32255e3d74eb.png

 

 

Laytonsville is in a good spot for this storm. 2-4" is a pretty solid bet for the area. Gburg and northern MoCo will be 2-4" in general. Potential max of 3-5" up near Damascus/Mount Airy line along 27

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40/33 here in Annapolis. If i get an inch out of this I'll be ecstatic but I suspect I'll be on the wrong side of the gradient. I think my only hope down here is to get in on the IVT action. 

I see widespread 1-4 inches along and north and west of 95 with an isolated 5 inch total possible somewhere from, say, Germantown to Westminster. 

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3 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Not for snow.  I'm on a hill, so my low temps are lame in inversion situations but otherwise I'm in line with others.  Hell, I pulled off 4" from March 2013 while it was raining in DC.  :)

You are also probably simply more accurate and don’t slant stick your obs like some others do. 

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1019 AM EST Tue Jan 7 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will pass south of the area this afternoon.
High pressure will build over the region Wednesday and hold
through the end of the week. Another area of low pressure
will pass northeast of the area late in the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Made a few minor tweaks to tighten the snowfall gradient along
the I-95 corridor, speed up the onset timing by an hour or two, as
well as nudge totals upward over higher terrain and northern
Maryland per upstream obs/latest guidance. Knocked a couple
degrees off the hourly temps as well. Otherwise, forecast
remains on track. Impressive burst of snow upstream over West
Virginia with visibility to 1/4 mile or less, and already
reports of accumulations of an inch in under 30 minutes. It`s
not the duration or total amounts expected, but the intensity
and timing (with the evening commute for the I-95 corridor) that
are expected to have a high impact.
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Just now, PhineasC said:

You are also probably simply more accurate and don’t slant stick your obs like some others do. 

Yeah, no snow obs in grass.

 

Here's a reason to still be positive.  This is the mesoanalysis from SPC at 10am.  Closed low in SW VA and NW NC with pressure falls in VA/NC and a convergence line south of Richmond.

pchg.gif.f75a97213fea2ebda1d532f2fddbd3a0.gif

 

Here is the 14z HRRR at noon.  Is there any world in which you can look at the current analysis and think that the low is going to be on the central WV/VA border?

 

HRRRMA_sfc_temp_003.png.f626ac0bdf729c1e7cfd3c5c900c573d.png

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