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Tuesday 1/7/20 Disco snow event


MountainGeek
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Just now, Steve25 said:

I'm an amateur so forgive me, but am I really to expect accumulation in Baltimore with temps in the 40s, warm pavement already, and the system only lasting a few hours?

I'm skeptical as well...we will ultimately see how high the temp gets. If mid 40s is a reality, I say no way. But a burst of snow is still probably in order around 5PM or so

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2 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

Woodbridge sitting at 32, liking the looks of the radar. I find it hard to believe we hit 41 with snow moving in from the SW

Even if you hit 41 I wouldn't sweat it.  might eat some precip with a mix but should turn over quickly.  dews are good along with 850s.  wont be cold smoke but wasn't expecting that anyway.  should be fun

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8 minutes ago, nj2va said:

I'm staying put in my office in Rosslyn vs working from home this afternoon in S. Arlington (south of the fall line)....could make a difference of 0.25" :lol:

Might help.  I pretty much live at the highest point in Arlington (Minor’s Hill in NW Arlington) and we often have winter conditions when other parts of Arlington have rain and slop.  My elevation is a whopping 425 feet.  

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Might help.  I pretty much live at the highest point in Arlington (Minor’s Hill in NW Arlington) and we often have winter conditions when other parts of Arlington have rain and slop.  My elevation is a whopping 425 feet.  

We’ve been through this before, but howdy neighbor. I’m a block or two from the foot of Minor Hill. 370ft or so.
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DC isn't as bad as I thought going from the comments here, but I mean, I know where I live.  I don't have any expectations that this is going to be anything but snow TV or some kind of mixed mess while the usual areas are getting ripped.  It is what it is, no point in whining about it.  I'm just happy to be tracking something and seeing snow, so I'm stoked. 

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I know this is in elevation, but still nice to see

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
945 AM EST TUE JAN 07 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0939 AM     SNOW             2 SSW MOUNT STORM       39.25N  79.26W
01/07/2020  M1.0 INCH        GRANT              WV   PUBLIC
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2 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

Ive said good luck to you western folk, but Im going off of my area, so whatever. Blast me if you want. Its 39F in the Dalk, probably because of the steaming poop plant. Still some sun too

Yeah, I think our best shot around here is a brief period of steady snow, but with very little accumulation. MAYBE up to an inch on grass and cold surfaces, but I'm thinking more like half an inch and wet roads. That's been my call for a few days now. Feel pretty confident now. North and west areas will certainly do much better, so I understand why those folks are really into it!

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SPC Discussion calls it “four star snow”

I move we refer to heavy snow as such going forward. 
 

Recent observations show 4-star snow along the WV/VA
   border, and additional heavy snow rates are likely to develop
   northeastward through midday, eventually reaching the western MD
   Panhandle. In addition, cooling aloft may result in small elevated
   MUCAPE values, adding to heavy snow burst potential.

 

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43 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Pretty cool pivoting feature of enhanced precip on the NAMs. Looks like a mini IVT with a hint of comma head. Could be a shelter in place couple hours for many in CMD

I’ve been noticing that for a couple days. There seems to be a perfectly aligned weak IVT which is enhancing the FGEN and moisture convergence over our area for a time. Could add a little extra pop to the event for some that end up under those bands. 

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