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Tuesday 1/7/20 Disco snow event


MountainGeek
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8 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

Still 43F here lol. I’m still skeptical but I guess I’m a pessimist 

You're in a tough spot there with virtually no elevation and 43° Bay water all around.  But this one has a lot of cold throughout the column and QPF has been increasing for your area all day.  Hope you can join in the accumulations tomorrow.

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4 minutes ago, nj2va said:

18z Euro and 00z NAM both get DC about 0.45” QPF...heavy rates will easily overcome surface temps.  And just above the surface is cold so the rates will bring down those colder temperates to the surface too.  #weenie

NAM looks like it extends the snow way further north into PA than the 18z NAM or Euro did.  Probably because it's the NAM

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2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

NAM's ratio's are really solid from Leesburg and west right at the start. 11-12 to 1 for the entire event. Really looking forward to tomorrow. I will be in Harrisonburg, VA until around noon. Then driving up the Shenandoah Valley on 81 to Winchester. Should be fun.

31/19 NW of Winchester.

      I'll bite.    Where are you getting that the NAM ratios are 11-12:1???

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14 minutes ago, Amped said:

NAM looks like it extends the snow way further north into PA than the 18z NAM or Euro did.  Probably because it's the NAM

NAM is finally getting a clue imo. A s/w and slp track like the NAM has shown along with the forcing shouldn't have been drying out like it was showing prior to the 18z runs. Maybe overdone on totals(?) but the qpf depiction given what I mentioned finally make sense. It's not like it's running into a dry 1059mb hp wedge.

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The one thing with this storm is that when the precip moves into the area, it'll come in hot and heavy. First precip may start as rain for some (Mainly DC south and east), but as precip intensifies, we'll see sufficient wet bulbing with boundary layer temps falling quickly below freezing. Lift during the afternoon will be stout with H7 VV's very impressive for a short period across NoVa through Central MD between 18-00z. H7 wind field indicates a finger of 50-55 kts out of the southwest across north-central VA sliding east through MD and the Delmarva. This is some prolific moisture enhancement right near the DGZ in tandem with the strong lift focused overhead. This is why models, despite showing precip only 4-8 hrs max, showing 2-4" now across the region. There will be embedded banding structures within the main QPF shield, adding to the localized precip max we typically see with these types of setups. I don't see stickage to pavement being a problem almost anywhere (Maybe DC at the start). This should be a wintery scene over the area. Look forward to living vicariously ^_^

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5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

This is realistic and should be a better indicator especially in marginal situations. Still a nice little treat:

While I agree that positive snow depth change is useful to compare with 10:1 maps, I agree with WxUSAF’s comment earlier that it may be a little underdone.  It’s not like its 36 with light precip falling over 7 hours.  A middle ground between 10:1 & snow depth change is probably a little more realistic.  

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I don't even want to imagine what the commute tomorrow night is going to be like even if roads are just wet. A heavy burst of snow potentially centering on 3-6pm...I"m already in the car for 1.5-2 hours ONE WAY a day. 

Going to be a fun day of radar tracking tomorrow. 

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