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January Banter 2020


George BM
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4 hours ago, MillvilleWx said:

 


The rides you mentioned are all great. The best ride in the whole resort is the new Pandora ride. Absolutely incredible. It’s a 4-D experience. We went on it twice thanks to Fast Pass +. If it wasn’t for that, the wait times are always over 2-3 hrs. Make sure to catch some shows as well PSU!!

And for food; Chef Mickey (Disney Contemporary Resport), Tony’s (Magic Kingdom. Get the pizza!!), Les Chef de France (Epcot), and Friar’s Nook (Magic Kingdom. Excellent park food).


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Try Boma in Animal Kingdom next time for a top notch buffet. Cape May Cafe is another top notch seafood buffet....one of the best I've had ever. I'll be there in May!

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Try Boma in Animal Kingdom next time for a top notch buffet. Cape May Cafe is another top notch seafood buffet....one of the best I've had ever. I'll be there in May!


I heard Boma was good. Will have to give that a go next time we’re there. Tony’s in MK was actually our favorite meal. Homemade Italian that tastes like something a Nona would make. Absolutely outstanding. Pizza was on point. Wife have the gnocchi. She gobbled the whole thing. Finished meal with gelato for me and cannoli’s for my wife. To die for. Great last meal for the trip.


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11 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Don't have the heart to post this in the disco thread... looks very familiar doesn't it?

 

8 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

GEPS is showing essentially the same feature....smh

 0z GEFS is suggesting full on winter cancel.

0z EPS showing some signs of moving that way too. :yikes:

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Just now, ers-wxman1 said:

Salary starts low but you’ll get where you need to be. I started as a GS5 step 1, I’m now going into a 13 step 8. That plus all the OT with storm activations and you do very well.

Trust me... I've thought it through countless times. I'm too far removed from College to get a science degree. I was a math whiz at one point but old memories fade and I would have to start at square one with all classes. I'm retiring in 8 years and no interest in restarting a career path. Hobby will have to do. 

I do use my wx skills to trade UGAZ and DGAZ every winter when setups line up. It almost feels like stealing. Lol. Not that I don't lose sometimes but I cut my losses quick and let my good trades run. Anyone can do of if they have the right mindset, confidence, guts, and of course some luck is required. I've tried to teach friends over the years but they can't control emotions. Emotional trading usually ends in disaster or big losses. Lol

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9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

If next year is anything like this year I'm retiring from this dumb hobby. I was semi retired in the fall but old habits die hard I suppose

This year has been the absolute worst imo.  Last year was frustrating because there was sky high expectations and potential but it wasn’t actually a bad year and had plenty to track. 2018 we did ok for a Nina. Had one decent Dec snow, a cold period with some minor snows in Jan, one fluke hit in Feb and the March significant event.  For a Nina there was a lot to track. It exceeding my expectations. 2017 sucked but it was a Nina with a bad north pac sst. We knew it was probably going to suck. Before that we had 3 great years for one reason or another. But this year...ugh. Expectations weren’t high but while we all said there were conflicting signals there were enough good things to think this year could be ok. Maybe even good with luck. Then this happened 

2AB9BDB1-AE3A-4694-AEFA-4D4FDE0D8AF9.gif.77bc4a64d765258643d5c231fab87deb.gif

you cannot draw up a worse look.  I actually consider myself lucky I’ve seen the snow I have even though I’m only pace for about 50% of normal. That look is just putrid.  I know it was depressing to say it but when I saw the combo of that pac look with a strongly +++AO setting in  heeding into prime climo I had an “Oh bleep” feeling.

We keep trying to create ghosts to chase because the truth is most of the time we know there isn’t anything legit in that look. So far it’s been the worst combo of a year with decent expectations producing the absolute worst outcome. It’s not like a Nina year when I expect this crap!!   

I try to take solace in 2 facts. Those same atrocious analogs I posted that unfortunately are coming true did contain some late fluke snowstorms. Nothing epic but some of them pulled out one decent snow later in winter. 

And we are near solar minimum and typically we get an increased period of -NAO following that. We certainly did in the late 70s and early 80s. Again between 96-2001 and again from late 2009 to 2014.  Not wall to wall -NAO and not every NAO period worked. Some years were wrecked by a godawful pac.  But given the current propensity for increased anomalous precip events...give me a 6 year window where the NAO is negative 50% of the time in winter...I’ll play the odds we get at least 1-2 epic years in there. And that’s how we roll.

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