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January Banter 2020


George BM
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1 minute ago, H2O said:

mappy is like 25.  There is no way she will get that reference.  I do.  thats because I'm :oldman:

hey old man -- not even close to being 25, though thank you for the compliment.

my dad actually watched that movie often, underrated sports movie IMO. 

so. eat it. :bike:

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Yeah, but that's when I thought I was the crewman that stays on the ship and something is up there and it kills me. But now I'm thinking I'm the guy that gets killed by some monster five minutes after we land on the planet.
 
You're not going to die on the planet, Guy.
 
 I'm not? Then what's my last name?
 
 It's, uh, uh-- I don't know.
 
Nobody knows. You know why? Because my character isn't important enough for a last name, because I'm gonna die five minutes in.
 
Guy, you have a last name.
 
DO I??!! DO I??!! FOR ALL YOU KNOW, I'M "CREWMAN #6"!
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3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

you should go read the "would these storms even work today" thread.  Some good discussion about how our climo is changing.  Especially the discussion yesterday between myself, Isotherm, and Frd.  

Basically... our winter's are becoming more extreme in both directions.  We are tending to "hit it big" more often when we do get a conducive pattern...but spending more time in bad patterns.  To get cold we almost need an extremely anomalous EPO or NAO pattern anymore.  Anything else and we end up warm.  It's a lot harder for us to luck our way into decent snowfall in a "meh" pattern anymore.  We spend long periods in awful no hope patterns...then hit it really big in years where we get either a dominant EPO or NAO ridge.  

The result is that while our "avg" isnt changing much...how we get that avg is.  We end up with more really bad years... but also more really good years.  For some places far enough north to end up on the right side of the thermal boundary the tendency for more juiced up systems due to the increased baroclinicity from warming in winter is actually increasing their snowfall avg.  But we are right along the edge of where it typically can get cold enough to snow...so for us its not as helpful as we are getting more big snowstorms...but spending more years in total crap patterns and getting almost no snow.  

Since there is likely a limit to how big storms can really get...if the warming continues and we spend more and more time in bad patterns and are able to luck our way to less and less snow in "not ideal" patterns...out avg will likely continue to drop.  

But I guess my point is...that is the normal now.  It's been happening for long enough now and makes sense given the changing climate regime that its not likely a fluke that is going to just turn around.  

So any short period that doesn't include one of our "big years" is likely to be "the worst stretch ever" because 30/50/100 years ago DC had a colder climate and was able to luck its way to a few small to medium snowfalls in a not perfect pattern.  That is becoming harder and harder to do...so we either with a ton of snow in a perfect pattern...or very very little in everything else.  That is the new normal.  

Thanks. I believe it. Its been feast or famine. Although I don't understand why the last few years have had patterns totally messed up in Jan and Feb and then turning around in March when time has run out. Bad luck? It seems like all we want to do is shutout our prime climo days. We can't get a decent pattern to save our lives.

 

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3 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said:

Thanks. I believe it. Its been feast or famine. Although I don't understand why the last few years have had patterns totally messed up in Jan and Feb and then turning around in March when time has run out. Bad luck? It seems like all we want to do is shutout our prime climo days. We can't get a decent pattern to save our lives.

 

2017 and 2018 the pattern flipped late because both years featured a cold enso aided pattern with a strong PV. During mid winter when the PV at its strongest and wavelengths in the mid latitude jet are broad and shallow disrupting that PV was a lost cause. Then both years when wavelengths shorten aiding more ridging to transport heat to the high latitudes and create blocking and the PV weakens then we saw some better patterns set it. 2018 also was aided by a strat warm in Feb. It wasn’t bad luck it was logical pattern progression. It’s why some Nina years have snow late. 

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8 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said:

Thanks. I believe it. Its been feast or famine. Although I don't understand why the last few years have had patterns totally messed up in Jan and Feb and then turning around in March when time has run out. Bad luck? It seems like all we want to do is shutout our prime climo days. We can't get a decent pattern to save our lives.

 

Read isotherms post an hour ago. Solar minimum is happening. We could get several -NAO years coming up. We just had a string of +++AO/NAO Years.  That makes getting a good pattern in January when the wavelengths are least helpful in disrupting that very unlikely. 

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4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

2017 and 2018 the pattern flipped late because both years featured a cold enso aided pattern with a strong PV. During mid winter when the PV at its strongest and wavelengths in the mid latitude jet are broad and shallow disrupting that PV was a lost cause. Then both years when wavelengths shorten aiding more ridging to transport heat to the high latitudes and create blocking and the PV weakens then we saw some better patterns set it. 2018 also was aided by a strat warm in Feb. It wasn’t bad luck it was logical pattern progression. It’s why some Nina years have snow late. 

Thanks for the explanation.

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4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It’s ok, you can use my name. 

Yeah, i'd be super excited if I was you. This is possibly looking like one of those setups where the cities get white rain and you score a solid 6" of paste. I really hope someone can score in the next couple weeks. 

I run a landscaping business and rely on snow removal in Jan/Feb. I never count on it but it is really nice for my wallet. It's more than just a hobby for me. 

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3 minutes ago, MD Snow said:

Yeah, i'd be super excited if I was you. This is possibly looking like one of those setups where the cities get white rain and you score a solid 6" of paste. I really hope someone can score in the next couple weeks. 

I run a landscaping business and rely on snow removal in Jan/Feb. I never count on it but it is really nice for my wallet. It's more than just a hobby for me. 

I wish you luck. I do think we will have a few more opportunities to snow. I’m not yet resigned that DC ends up with a total skunked season. But odds of a “good” year are increasingly dwindling. 

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