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January Banter 2020


George BM
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Just now, Mersky said:

i would not have even responded to his post if it wasnt for his out right lie that i attacked isotherm. I did no such thing. I will not respond to his posts again. 

perhaps he confused isotherm with allsnow, since you were going back and forth with him.

by the way -- where do you reside? in the mid-atlantic subforum somewhere? 

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7 minutes ago, Mersky said:

yes i have a home in northern maryland just below the mason dixon line in hartford county and our son has an apartment in NYC which we travel to most weekends

sounds good. 

word of advice: when you venture into other subforums, make sure you play nice with the locals. 

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I feel..... young-ish? 

I guess because I'm still fairly young-ish (early 20's) I get this preconceived notion that everyone who I haven't seen in person yet or who's general age I don't know is fairly close to my age. 

I think there are just two posters that I know of on here (from what they've said) who are actually younger than me. *shrugs* I know there are probably more people on here who are aob my age who just don't post much.

Happy Martin Luther King Jr. Day.

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3 hours ago, snowfan said:

He's sitting at about 20" below normal for the season and snow out there is a big deal for winter $$$$.

I am well aware of what they get there. I've been to Davis. Unfortunately it was during the summer though. But it would be one of my go to spots for chasing snow. Although I didn't really care for the lack of cell phone service.

That aside, don't really care if he lives on Mt Mostsnowintheworld. Its petty to complain about "only" getting 45 inches. I've had a trace of snow here in Delaware. A trace.

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Hey @psuhoffman, sounds like a really fun weekend trip in Gettysburg!!  Glad to hear you all had a great time!

Oh, I particularly liked the photo of you with the maniacal look on your face, staring at the drinks, as if deciding which one to attack first (and the knife in front of you adds a bit of, uhh, atmosphere?)!

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22 hours ago, Isotherm said:

 

 

Yes, I agree with your post here and the others recently. Regarding the putative canonical Nino-look and seasonable temps in the South, that doesn't necessarily imply favorable pattern for snow in the Northeast I-95 corridor. Classical Ninos are typically seasonable temperature wise across the southern tier of the CONUS due to frequent clouds and precipitation.

For example, see 97-98, which wasn't a torch for the southern half of the country, but it certainly wasn't snowy for our region.

 

cd69.119.175.109.18.15.10.19.prcp.png

 

 

Similar look with 1982-83.

 

cd69.119.175.109.18.15.41.27.prcp.png

 

22 hours ago, Mersky said:

97-98 was a strong nino. Of course the country torched. You can’t compare that nino to this one. And 82-83 had a Two foot snowstorm from dc to NYC. Thanks for proving my point 

 

Context matters  Tom wasn’t comparing the nino in 1998 to enso now.  He was comparing the pattern.  And you twisted his words as you often do.  

Feb 1998

FB17D51E-1A98-4A59-9A23-038E6EF39E2C.gif.9c0f4dbd4bb5cd931020c41bb262b967.gif

EPS Next week 

F4E54996-385D-48D1-B0D9-98F7E30F80A1.thumb.png.c93d3c03c31a6ce54c5fa0f09c9dde28.png

The nino strength isn’t relevant, if the pattern is similar the results will likely be similar.  

When he brought up 1983, again, he was referencing the pattern much of that winter.  

2DE0AE29-9B7C-4EAC-AE01-6A0055178063.gif.3499139842d7437bdf83321021039ad9.gif

And yes we had one anomalous snowstorm that winter but it was during this...

2A900B0A-EA36-4BF1-9D24-3F9B6B735D6D.gif.8e9f3bbda54b20ac3017d902e1ffab32.gif

so if an Uber NAO block like that shows up then you have a case, but Tom was pretty clear he finds the prospect of strong NAO blocking very unlikely and if we get any it won’t be until very late in the season. 

Absent that block we get what we got the rest of that winter in such a pattern.  

All he proved was that the “look” coming up has tended to be too warm for snow historically.  

 

 

 

 

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3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

@RevWarReenactor how was Vermont???

it was awesome! Thanks!

We missed some of the heavier stuff just to the south and only ended up light snowing our way to about 5 inches. But I was only slightly disappointed. I went out walking that night and it was so nice. Next morning as I was leaving it was actually snowing harder than it had during the entire storm. I really really didn't want to leave. Heading south, the snow stopped, the temperature rose into the 40's and the snowpack disappeared. Going back to reality was tough. I did go into Rutland, but I didn't make it to Stowe, I had to end my trip early. But I am already thinking of going back next weekend depending on how the storm trends. Appreciate all the suggestions!

 

 

IMG_4597.jpg

IMG_4598.jpg

IMG_4599.jpg

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