Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

January Banter 2020


George BM
 Share

Recommended Posts

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It’s provably going to at least be close.  The look is close enough to a lot of our wet snow in a warm pattern “look” but the antecedent airmass might be just a bit too atrocious for low elevations. This might end up like some of those 1998 storms that clobbered higher elevations. 

My first thought was 1998 when this thing started looking like a close call.  I don't think the temps will as bad as the storms in 1998 with this one. I know the antecedent airmass were dealing is not good but in 1998 they were really bad. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

My first thought was 1998 when this thing started looking like a close call.  I don't think the temps will as bad as the storms in 1998 with this one. I know the antecedent airmass were dealing is not good but in 1998 they were really bad. 

maybe a touch better...but not quite as good as some of the snowy outcome "Hudson Bay Ridge" analogs either...those are also generally warm pattern storms also...but looking through most of those examples that worked the airmass ahead wasn't quite as torched as this one...of course the guidance is trending cooler so if that continues by the time the storm comes maybe it will look more like the better examples.  A compromise might work for our area...we had a little bit of snow with some of those 1998 storms but we didn't quite have the elevation to get really thumped.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

maybe a touch better...but not quite as good as some of the snowy outcome "Hudson Bay Ridge" analogs either...those are also generally warm pattern storms also...but looking through most of those examples that worked the airmass ahead wasn't quite as torched as this one...of course the guidance is trending cooler so if that continues by the time the storm comes maybe it will look more like the better examples.  A compromise might work for our area...we had a little bit of snow with some of those 1998 storms but we didn't quite have the elevation to get really thumped.  

It also helped to be located more west with those 98 storms which could be the case this weekend also. If we lived in the Catoctins or higher elevations in Washington county I would feel pretty good. As it stands now we're definitely in the game and the cities have a puncher's chance.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

@Maestrobjwa you made a post the other day saying maybe we will get one huge fluke snowstorm like 2016, and I know you have mentioned 2006 the same way...only neither of those was a "fluke".  

2016 had an excellent h5 pattern for 6 weeks in the core of that winter...

2016.gif.ccb449f62916dd03b3ac09b24338df94.gif

and IMO it was bad luck that we didn't score more than one significant snowfall.  I am NOT saying we should have had 2 storms like that HECS but if you showed me this look and said that would be the pattern for the 6 snowiest weeks of winter I probably would have guessed we would have got more than 1 significant snowfall.  But we got very unlucky...we wasted a perfect track coastal storm before the HECS because temps were slightly too warm.  Then another threat got suppressed and squashed...then one WAA wave went just south of DC and another storm went just north and there was a perfect upper low early Feb where the boundary layer was just too warm, my area got 8" and DC was cold rain.  But if anything the fluke was that DC only got one snowstorm...NOT that they did get one snowstorm.  

2006 was similar...the period from Mid December to Mid January was awful...but one of the best winter blocking periods of the last 20 years set in around Jan 25 and continued the rest of winter.  

2006.gif.b602eabe57781bf367a8aed8962a1e8d.gif

THe nina pattern in the pac is evident with that ridge and the lack of an STJ...those features limited the potential here and is part of the reason why we only got one big snowstorm...but the fact that from Jan 25 to the rest of winter looked like that, with that blocking...and we only managed one snowfall of any significance is incredibly bad luck.  Given the lack of STJ I don't think expecting multiple MECS level snows was likely but we probably should have had another minor to medium level event or two given that look for so long.  

My point is not that we wont get a big snowstorm...just that we don't usually "luck" our way to a 12" plus snowstorm in a crap pattern.  Those level storms in the cities almost always go along with a favorable pattern (almost always blocking).  We can "luck" our way to a 3-6" event in a crap pattern SOMETIMES... but once you get to 8" plus events in DC its almost always with a pretty favorable pattern.  Sometimes there is a year where we only got one big storm...but usually that is because either bad luck and it should have been more...or a year like 2000 where we spent most of the year in a crap look but we got a short but excellent pattern for a week or two.  

I guess my point is don't expect us to somehow fluke our way to a 12" snowstorm in some god awful looking pattern.  That almost never happens.  

For the record a Hudson Bay ridge (current pattern) is not the worst look for snow...its not the best either and temps will always be a struggle in this look...but we have managed some wet snow paste jobs in such a pattern, but they aren't typically HECS level storms...most were moderate snowstorms in the city...some were big in the NW elevated parts of our forum though.   

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Had a great time in Gettysburg. Ate at Dobbin House, excellent food!   Wife got to show of her new coat.

256DCF60-0272-42AE-906B-F62D520D9C3F.thumb.jpeg.8c4ee10f78f96f342187eb40184d8ac6.jpeg

I got a little excited for the drinks...

1F2C04B2-39B0-4B82-8EC4-E589D1D2B3C5.thumb.jpeg.1b70a89e1264381c61511e64bb6f3af7.jpeg

Found some live music at Ploughmans tap house. Nice to get away and relax for a couple days. 

5B4CAD14-7442-4BBA-867A-A002AD8D452D.thumb.jpeg.1d21cb9dc74ad08ba31119cee047b189.jpeg3692A19C-6F4A-4967-AD52-EE8C83F7D6C4.thumb.jpeg.925917ca9b135e8d27e294674cf21d08.jpeg

walking around wasn’t easy though with the ice. But we had a fun time. 

Apparently CashtownCoop saw us on the street but didn’t give a shout out. Would have been cool if he had. 

Anyways I’m recharged and ready to track the rest of our epic fails. 

  • Like 14
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, snowfan said:

He's sitting at about 20" below normal for the season and snow out there is a big deal for winter $$$$.

you have to remember, mdecoy is super special. so special he blows through red lights to make turns, and passes cars on shoulders during highway backups (and then posts about it!)

  • Like 1
  • Haha 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, mappy said:

you have to remember, mdecoy is super special. so special he blows through red lights to make turns, and passes cars on shoulders during highway backups (and then posts about it!)

And gives drivers the bird and road rages over red lights or tailgating or whatever it was that he got out of his car for

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • WxUSAF unpinned this topic

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...