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January Banter 2020


George BM
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Every time a threat fails or a pattern degrades some variation of the “I told you so” posts start. Except almost no one thinks snow is likely here. Even when the pattern looks “better” often that just means we have a 25% vs a 5% chance.  Most here know our climo. We’re just tracking for fun and knowing every once in a while we get lucky.  Telling us told you so is like saying “haha” every time you don’t win the lottery. Oh you told us so?  Really. Thanks Nostradamus, really went out on a limb there. Those people look smart 80% of the time until it finally does snow then they look stupid.  Of course they disappear when that happens. 

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12 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Just like anywhere else elevation matters. I’ve been in Killington/Rutland for snowstorms several times. Last year I was there and Rutland got about 10” and Killington had 18”. Few years back Killington got 24” and there was about 12 in the valley. Just how it is. But it’s only a short drive up from Rutland so you can spend all day up at Killington to catch the “show”. They have some nice restaurants and bars up there. Don’t know what you’re looking to do. 

I would definitely take the trip up Sunday to Montpelier and Stowe. Nice drive. And they will get more snow. It’s climo. They almost always do in a storm tracking this far north.  Plus Stowe will get upslope snow behind the storm. You can take the Ben and Jerry’s factory tour right outside Stowe. 

Another option is to check out Stowe during the day and stay at Burlington. Short drive. It’s in the valley and won’t get as much snow but it’s an awesome college town with a lot to do at night. Would be a cool place to spend the last night before heading home. Montpelier is a smaller quieter town but I’m sure you can find a bar anywhere. Just depends what you’re looking for. 

One last thing...if you do go to Stowe make sure you drive up the access road to the ski resort. Sometimes there is a significant difference in snow. Worth the 5 miles. 

I hope you have a great time. I’m taking a mini trip myself. My sister is watching the kids so I can take my wife to a little B&B in Gettysburg for the night.  

Thanks!

No real plans, but that all sounds great. Thanks for the sugestions! I am seeing now that those areas you mentioned will probably do better so I will definitely have to take a trip.

Gettysburg BB sounds awesome, that would have been my choice if they were getting snow.

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8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Every time a threat fails or a pattern degrades some variation of the “I told you so” posts start. Except almost no one thinks snow is likely here. Even when the pattern looks “better” often that just means we have a 25% vs a 5% chance.  Most here know our climo. We’re just tracking for fun and knowing every once in a while we get lucky.  Telling us told you so is like saying “haha” every time you don’t win the lottery. Oh you told us so?  Really. Thanks Nostradamus, really went out on a limb there. Those people look smart 80% of the time until it finally does snow then they look stupid.  Of course they disappear when that happens. 

Ever since I moved north I have seen how much snow really impacts peoples personalities, and its really mind boggling. It's just snow. Why be a dick to the people receiving some because they live in a more favorable location for snow and you don't? Ill never get it. 

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13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Every time a threat fails or a pattern degrades some variation of the “I told you so” posts start. Except almost no one thinks snow is likely here. Even when the pattern looks “better” often that just means we have a 25% vs a 5% chance.  Most here know our climo. We’re just tracking for fun and knowing every once in a while we get lucky.  Telling us told you so is like saying “haha” every time you don’t win the lottery. Oh you told us so?  Really. Thanks Nostradamus, really went out on a limb there. Those people look smart 80% of the time until it finally does snow then they look stupid.  Of course they disappear when that happens. 

But this isn't actually how its portrayed. That's the core issue I think.

When people here see "a snowy look" or " a lot of potential hits on the 15 day outlook" etc......they tend to think its more than this. Especially in a heavily moderated thread which says to people "this is important".

While the knowledge and science behind it are amazing. Its end output is basically complete junk most of the time.

Maybe there need to be a disclaimer "Hey guys, this stuff we are talking about is actually garbage and probably won't happen. DC usually gets about 10 inches of snow a year if they are really lucky".

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9 hours ago, yoda said:

1.  That is all.

OVI has actually become a better all around player over the years. Earlier in his career he didnt like playing any D at all but he's realized what it takes to win in the spring. Youll see him back check and do things on D that he didnt do 10 years ago.

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Gosh. I remember the days when all you had was the weather channel, local news, and the NWS forecast phone number. And local channels would go off the air at night. So, all you could do was go to sleep and hope for the best.

Now there is so much data at our fingertips, there is no rest for the mind or emotions. Too much data can be a bad thing for our weary data driven souls in the 21st century.


.

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One thing so far in this rather yet again disappointing winter, I seem to recall the seasonal outlooks from the various long range modeling showing it at last average in terms of precip if not above average, and more than a little hinting at southern stream moisture being available. To this point, that is not how this has played out at all, I don't believe. And we certainly have not seen a lot of juiced up storms miss us up the coast or very many juiced up monsters cutting to our west and threatening to become 50/50 lows for follow-up systems. Mostly it has been pretty quiet in terms of organized storm activity from my perception.

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58 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

One thing so far in this rather yet again disappointing winter, I seem to recall the seasonal outlooks from the various long range modeling showing it at last average in terms of precip if not above average, and more than a little hinting at southern stream moisture being available. To this point, that is not how this has played out at all, I don't believe. And we certainly have not seen a lot of juiced up storms miss us up the coast or very many juiced up monsters cutting to our west and threatening to become 50/50 lows for follow-up systems. Mostly it has been pretty quiet in terms of organized storm activity from my perception.

I feel that is a common theme of many below avg winters. At least here it seems to be.

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For once l’ll be rooting against the snow since I have a flight back from Boston tomorrow afternoon. Would be pretty fitting for my flight to get canceled or delayed coming back from a weather conference. Only supposed to get a few inches up here though so not worth being a weenie and rooting for a cancellation.

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2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Hope we can get a surprise tomorrow...because it looks like it's gonna be awhile after this, smh

Which is both hilarious and sad given that a week ago, this thing was supposed to be an appetizer.  We're just in a Chris Davis style slump right now... every once in a while we're able to put the bat on it and it dribbles through the infield, but we just can't seem to put any good wood on anything.

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37 minutes ago, caviman2201 said:

Which is both hilarious and sad given that a week ago, this thing was supposed to be an appetizer.  We're just in a Chris Davis style slump right now... every once in a while we're able to put the bat on it and it dribbles through the infield, but we just can't seem to put any good wood on anything.

Accurate, lol I mean that's pretty much where we've been since the blizzard of 2016! (which, ironically, came about a week after he signed that dang contract!)

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Just now, RevWarReenactor said:

Are they even METS? A lot of the NYC ones were always just hired because they were good on camera, Sam Champion.

I think the top two on every station are usually Mets. Some go deeper. Larger markets employ degreed meteorologists. For the most part, unless you are a Fox affiliate.

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4 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said:

Are they even METS? A lot of the NYC ones were always just hired because they were good on camera, Sam Champion.

Some of them are, but most of them are pretty hypey with run-of-the-mills storms (alert day, etc.)  The worst has to be the CBS affiliate out of Baltimore, Channel 13...if it's not sunny and 70 it's the end of the world.

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