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Upstate/Eastern New York


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10 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Boy the European is close here..

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_ne (45).png

I had pretty much written this pig off looking at GFS and other NWP Skew T's last few runs. But there's just enough credible model support for a snowier outcome to keep some hope of avoiding a front end washout alive.

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24 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

Looks like a mix between Nino and Nina. 

Not the greatest look actually. Lack of blocking means any cold will be transient. This pattern is downright brutal. 

Well if you get the cold air in Upstate you get lake effect. Not the best synoptic look. Way too far out to see if it has any staying power or not. 

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2 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

I remember there were a few pretty good snowstorms that followed 50 degree days down around NYC / NNJ snowbelts as a kid.  

Fair enough. I would be more hopeful about that happening this weekend if the Canadian had stayed the course. Now that it has backed off, the Euro steps up to the plate. Can they ever just agree?!? lol

I am back and forth on what I am hoping for. Part of me doesn't want heavy rain, but then the other part of me says we may have to endure heavy rain to possibly bring enough cooling down for a change to snow. Otherwise, it's steady rain with the hope that the lakes can provide SOMETHING afterwards. But, as we know, the synoptic systems AND Lakes have not been kind.

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I had pretty much written this pig off looking at GFS and other NWP Skew T's last few runs. But there's just enough credible model support for a snowier outcome to keep some hope of avoiding a front end washout alive.
Indeed there is as that's all I was looking at yesterday as I said, we're toast, lol, but today I'm a bit more optimistic!

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

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The best chance for accumulating snow is Sunday and Sunday night.
However, surface temperatures will marginal for snow and so snow
will struggle to accumulate. Model QPF has also been a challenge,
with some models and runs significantly higher than others. In
general, upsloping will play a significant role, along with deep
moisture associated with the upper low, and a secondary trough which
is forecast to move through Sunday night. Southwesterly winds
typically do not upslope effectively, and suspect some model
guidance has overdone lake enhancement which should be minimal. Base
don this, have hedged toward model runs with lower QPF amounts. A
more WSW surface flow will support better upsloping Sunday night,
and this may be when the most snow accumulates.

Snowfall amounts will vary by location, with generally the greatest
amounts across higher terrain east of the lakes where there will be
some orographic enhancement and where it will be the coldest. Snow
amounts are likely to fall in the advisory range with 24-hour storm
totals in the 4 to 8 inch range at these locations. The Tug Hill
bears some watching, with slightly higher amounts possible, but held
off on watch headlines considering that snow will likely be wet and
have poor liquid equivalent ratios. Elsewhere there will be minimal
accumulation. This includes the Buffalo and Rochester metro areas, I-
90 along Lake Erie, the Genesee River Valley, and western Finger
Lakes. Expect only a slushy inch or two at these locations
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18 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

I think this one will surprise. Delta, my trip to Whiteface is February 5-8. 

Dang, we can high five as I check out and you check in.  I'm going from the 2-5th, driving home on the 6th.  You appear to be there during a slightly more favorable time period, but we've been chasing fantasy winter weather 10 days out for months now so we shall see what actually comes to fruition. 

The fact that there is a strong miller A lurking around next weekend for many runs now is at least something we can track.  

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15 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

Dang, we can high five as I check out and you check in.  I'm going from the 2-5th, driving home on the 6th.  You appear to be there during a slightly more favorable time period, but we've been chasing fantasy winter weather 10 days out for months now so we shall see what actually comes to fruition. 

The fact that there is a strong miller A lurking around next weekend for many runs now is at least something we can track.  

Just finished skiing Jackson Hole. It was fabulous. Driving through W Yellowstone in the back of a huge GMC Yukon on my way to Big Sky. Snowing with big snow banks either side of the road. Life is tough. 

E402BD40-F069-481F-8B96-B0B23A88412A.jpeg

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