Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

January 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
 Share

Recommended Posts

Quick morning thoughts...

1. New York City remains solidly on course for January 2020 to become the 9th warmest January on record with a monthly mean temperature near 39.0°.

2. A weekend storm will likely bring little or no snow to the immediate New York City Metro Area. Eastern New England has the greatest chance of seeing a light or perhaps moderate snowfall as the storm rapidly deepens over the New England waters.

3. Since 1981, there have been 11 snowstorms that brought 6" or more snow to New York City in the February 1-15 timeframe. None had 250 mb winds over the Pacific Northwest rivaling those forecast by the latest guidance.

GEFS012820200z.jpg

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

A top 10 warmest January for many. The winter temperature departures since December 1st are +3 to +8 across the East. Big reduction in home heating costs for a large amount of customers.

 

27E92682-D5D7-484E-8B11-283D46C4E634.thumb.jpeg.e560eeeade79f13d1befc996012f9f83.jpeg

 

At this point I just want full-on spring weather. I'm over this pathetic winter but do appreciate the lack of arctic cold.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Quick morning thoughts...

1. New York City remains solidly on course for January 2020 to become the 9th warmest January on record with a monthly mean temperature near 39.0°.

2. A weekend storm will likely bring little or no snow to the immediate New York City Metro Area. Eastern New England has the greatest chance of seeing a light or perhaps moderate snowfall as the storm rapidly deepens over the New England waters.

3. Since 1981, there have been 11 snowstorms that brought 6" or more snow to New York City in the February 1-15 timeframe. None had 250 mb winds over the Pacific Northwest rivaling those forecast by the latest guidance.

GEFS012820200z.jpg

It's really fascinating how every pattern we have seen have been non conducive for snowfall in our region. We cannot catch a break. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Not sure if we have a weak trough moving through, but we have had extremely light snow grains and flurries for the last 2 hours. The important word being extremely, with a temp of 35. I'm about 5 miles west of Allentown, Pa. Hope this is the right Obs section to post in.  Maybe we luck out this weekend. We'll see!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The warmth in Europe has been even more impressive than here.

 

6905A2AD-DF72-4DA8-B0BC-153A0B0AC984.thumb.png.0b0d127900def3f0822883e2dfdd1a7c.png

 

 

 

Thank you for the sobering update. A portion of my ancestral Sicily was below normal for the period. I wonder if the mountains experienced snow during that time frame. As always ...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, rclab said:

Thank you for the sobering update. A portion of my ancestral Sicily was below normal for the period. I wonder if the mountains experienced snow during that time frame. As always ...

Record storms around the Mediterranean. 

https://www.surfertoday.com/environment/storm-gloria-generates-the-biggest-wave-ever-recorded-in-the-mediterranean

https://www.timesofisrael.com/torrential-rains-in-northern-israel-break-51-year-record/

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

No winter anywhere this year-even parts of Russia have been warm

I wouldnt say no winter lol, its just been mild after a cold November. We are actually around avg snowfall to date in Detroit (21.9" so far), just cant sustain the snowpack. These mild winters are a boon for the Lake superior snowbelts of the UP, absolute mountains of snow. I would suggest a trip if you can, you will definitely get a fix.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

It's really fascinating how every pattern we have seen have been non conducive for snowfall in our region. We cannot catch a break. 

Also really fascinating how the Pacific Jet has essentially raged like an insane wind tunnel constantly which helps destroy any chances we have due to warm air, progressive patterns, no blocking and horrible storm tracks through the Midwest. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, doncat said:

Dry also this month... The 1.86" of precip. here will be the 3rd lowest past 40 years.

I wonder if this is a portent for a very dry very hot summer with a strong SE Ridge.  I thought that was going to wait until 2021 when we reach the peak of the 11 year cycle, but it may start a year early and we could have two back to back very hot and very dry summers.

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Slightly cooler air has now moved into the region. Nevertheless, temperatures will generally run somewhat above normal through the remainder of January and into the start of February. Little or no snow is likely in New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC into the start of February.

Colder air could return late in the first week in February or just afterward. Arctic air is unlikely. Moreover, the cold could be transient.

As long as the Arctic Oscillation remains strongly positive, the risk of widespread significant snow (6" or greater) from Washington, DC to Boston remains low. Since 1950, there were 11 storms that brought 6" or more snow to 2 or more of the following cities: Boston, New York City, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC. Just 1 such storm occurred when the AO was +1.000 or above. Therefore, through most of the remainder of January, the greatest risk of moderate or significant snowfall will likely exist for central and upstate New York and central and northern New England. Boston would have a higher probability of receiving a moderate or significant snowfall than Baltimore, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC.

During the weekend, a storm moving offshore will likely intensify rapidly as it moves into the waters off New England. The area with the highest chance of receiving at least a light snowfall will be eastern New England. There remains some uncertainty about the storm's track.

Based on the latest guidance, the likely seasonal snowfall distribution through January 31, will be < 20" at Boston; < 6" at New York City; < 3" at Philadelphia; and, < 2" at Washington, DC. There were 5 prior cases that met the above criteria for seasonal snowfall through January 31: 1895-96, 1918-19, 1931-32, 1949-50, and 1972-73. The single case with a colder than normal January (1895-96) saw 43.0" snow in the February-April period in New York City. All of the remaining four cases, all of which had a warmer than normal January, had less than 12.0" (mean: 4.6"; median 2.8"). Should blocking largely fail to develop in February, the risk of the very low snowfall for the remainder of winter 2019-20 would increase.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.3°C for the week centered around January 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.10°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.48°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm to weak El Niño conditions.

For February 1981-2019, the following monthly temperature averages were recorded for cases when the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly averaged 0.00°C to +0.75°C:

ENSO R1+2 Anomaly < 0: AO+: NYC: 36.9°; Philadelphia: 37.6° (n=101 dates); EPO+ subset: NYC: 40.5°; Philadelphia: 40.8° (n=57 dates)
ENSO R1+2 Anomaly < 0: AO-: NYC: 34.7°; Philadelphia: 34.9° (n=97 dates)

ENSO R1+2 Anomaly > 0: AO+: NYC: 35.7°; Philadelphia: 36.6° (n=82 dates); EPO+ subset: NYC: 41.2°; Philadelphia: 42.0° (n=18 dates)
ENSO R1+2 Anomaly > 0: AO-: NYC: 30.9°; Philadelphia: 31.6° (n=58 dates)

February 1981-2019: NYC: 35.8°; Philadelphia: 36.0°

The SOI was +8.72 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.127.

Upper stratospheric warming will commence near the beginning of February and continue through February 5. Strong Wave 2 activity will occur during the first week of February driving the warming of the upper stratosphere. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS into the first days of February, but the strong Wave 2 activity has increased the risk of warming that could propagate downward. 

On January 27, the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 0.568 (RMM). The January 26-adjusted amplitude was 0.448.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, New York City has an implied near 100% probability of a warmer than normal January. The monthly mean temperature could finish near 39.0° in New York City. That would surpass the 38.6° monthly temperature from 1949 to make 2020 the 9th warmest January on record.

The combination of ENSO in combination with an AO+/EPO+ base state suggests that February will wind up warmer than normal in the northern Mid-Atlantic region.

  • Thanks 2
  • Weenie 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...