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January 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
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21 this morning with tons of frost, colder than forecast. Yesterday’s low of 18 was the coldest temp so far this January, and 17 back in December is the lowest temp so far this winter. Only one sub-freezing high temp this winter.

Our area’s flora would look radically different if this was the norm, even if our average temps remained the same as they are now.

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1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Latest Roundy plots have the mjo getting stronger in p1 then moving into p2. This might be the jump start we need to kick the vortex out? @bluewave

 

It looks like the models are going for forcing in the MJO 6 and 1- 2 regions the next few weeks. So we’ll have to see what that combination looks like in the actual pattern. Plus the +AAM spike gets added to the mix. So a continuation of La Niña and El Niño influences which shows up in the split flow.

651D11F6-F33C-4D19-955D-636C8F8F1ABB.gif.d11b34534621a02f597fba441f62d6db.gif

E42FAC04-0453-4C96-824C-C0F0F1200BBF.png.9e4c7f4e3c3dcd3cd58fee1987bedc1b.png

1A563CB6-DA27-4F5C-9705-E212AB5FCF95.thumb.gif.e08e1705194198dde369dd2948aea84d.gif

 

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43 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It looks like the models are going for forcing in the MJO 6 and 1- 2 regions the next few weeks. So we’ll have to see what that combination looks like in the actual pattern. Plus the +AAM spike gets added to the mix. So a continuation of La Niña and El Niño influences which shows up in the split flow.

651D11F6-F33C-4D19-955D-636C8F8F1ABB.gif.d11b34534621a02f597fba441f62d6db.gif

E42FAC04-0453-4C96-824C-C0F0F1200BBF.png.9e4c7f4e3c3dcd3cd58fee1987bedc1b.png

1A563CB6-DA27-4F5C-9705-E212AB5FCF95.thumb.gif.e08e1705194198dde369dd2948aea84d.gif

 

By next week we should have something really interesting with decent airmass and +pna and a nice ridge out west should produce for us next week in my opinion

FC1C71DF-658A-4702-94A0-0DF810A517B9.png

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29 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It looks like the models are going for forcing in the MJO 6 and 1- 2 regions the next few weeks. So we’ll have to see what that combination looks like in the actual pattern. Plus the +AAM spike gets added to the mix. So a continuation of La Niña and El Niño influences which shows up in the split flow.

651D11F6-F33C-4D19-955D-636C8F8F1ABB.gif.d11b34534621a02f597fba441f62d6db.gif

E42FAC04-0453-4C96-824C-C0F0F1200BBF.png.9e4c7f4e3c3dcd3cd58fee1987bedc1b.png

1A563CB6-DA27-4F5C-9705-E212AB5FCF95.thumb.gif.e08e1705194198dde369dd2948aea84d.gif

 

Do you think with loosing the big time wpac forcing we will see a relaxation in the +AAM

 

 

 

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A huge pick-up in activity due to the split flow means we're probably not gonna follow the warm/dry winters. 

True blocking remains elusive but the Hudson ridge could trigger a -NAO response.

I wouldn't entirely dismiss the threats for next week. We do get a +PNA and though the airmass isn't very cold, it can still work out at peak cold climo. Of course we also want coastal tracks, not inland like this weekend. 

It's probable the MJO emerges at phase 1/2 after Feb 5-10 so pattern should gradually continue to improve after 1st week of Feb. The Alaskan vortex will likely weaken and we may see ridging extend from the Hudson to the typical NAO regions. 

This all should give us a decent Feb 15 to Mar 15 period. 

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6 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

A huge pick-up in activity due to the split flow means we're probably not gonna follow the warm/dry winters. 

True blocking remains elusive but the Hudson ridge could trigger a -NAO response.

I wouldn't entirely dismiss the threats for next week. We do get a +PNA and though the airmass isn't very cold, it can still work out at peak cold climo. Of course we also want coastal tracks, not inland like this weekend. 

It's probable the MJO emerges at phase 1/2 after Feb 5-10 so pattern should gradually continue to improve after 1st week of Feb. The Alaskan vortex will likely weaken and we may see ridging extend from the Hudson to the typical NAO regions. 

This all should give us a decent Feb 15 to Mar 15 period. 

I agree with all of this. Very nice post. 

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The big news here is TPV is moving away from Alaska and the deepest Negative is over the Eastern US.

 

The Kelvin in p6 dies off then the models may be taking the MJO back out near 1 and 2.

 

Can we get that Neg to swing into that trough off the WC, deepen and push those Heights back towards Alaska ? 

 

20200123_063626.png

 

The Canadian sees the ridge and that would finally force Arctic air into the pattern.

E41B293F-F925-4043-A111-F0421F648E85.png

 

As far as day 10 , it`s track dependent , we could snow with PAC air the pattern because of the Late Jan, Early Feb time frame. However we would need a just east of the BM track to achieve that.

Here are the last 7 days, we did correct to slightly  BN regime even though the air has been Polar Pacific. ( The 16th is warm +9  and skews that ) . 

So the air mass is not putrid , just not well BN and you could snow on the right track with this 

306839455_ncep_cfsr_noram_t2m_week_anomJAN23LAST7.thumb.png.1069d0941508b2d53bd8b2ea5e94d12a.png

 

 

I would really wait until I see those maps 10 days out, these day 15 maps look very good but can not be trusted yet. 

 

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1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Gefs in agreement with eps/geps at 12z with flushing out the vortex first week of February. Let’s see if we can hold this as we move closer. 

Until it’s under 10 days, and even then, I view these new model runs with extreme skepticism. The models have been making the pattern look great, very cold and snowy, blocking in the long range for several runs in a row, keep it there, never move it forward in time, then they lose it completely. This has been going on literally since the first week of December. It honestly reminds of 2011-2012 when the models showed a great pattern in the long range that never materialized from December right through March. AK vortexes normally are not in a hurry to just disappear without a fight. I’ll believe it when I see it. I still don’t think we see a true full scale change, if there is to be one, until the end of February....

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1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Gefs in agreement with eps/geps at 12z with flushing out the vortex first week of February. Let’s see if we can hold this as we move closer. 

Eps looks even better this run by kicking the vortex out by the 3rd. We even get some blocking at the end in the NAO region. 
 

All this is great but we need to view it through skeptical eyes. Just trying to give you guys a update daily. 

6230F656-0999-45C6-966F-96AEBA4FA224.png

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1 minute ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

Why are you looking at models past 5 days they suck and are most likely wrong. I expect nothing unless we get lucky here it’s a coin toss

Because it’s a weather forum and find weather interesting.

 

I hope this is okay with you.......

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Under partly sunny skies, temperatures rebounded into the middle and upper 40s across the northern Mid-Atlantic region.

Temperatures will likely run above normal through the remainder of January and into the start of February. Colder air could return late in the first week in February or just afterward.

As long as the Arctic Oscillation remains strongly positive, the risk of widespread significant snow (6" or greater) from Washington, DC to Boston remains low. Since 1950, there were 11 storms that brought 6" or more snow to 2 or more of the following cities: Boston, New York City, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC. Just 1 such storm occurred when the AO was +1.000 or above. Therefore, through most of the remainder of January, the greatest risk of moderate or significant snowfall will likely exist for central and upstate New York and central and northern New England. The pattern could begin to grow more favorable for snow on the coastal plain during the beginning of February should the Arctic Oscillation (AO) fall toward neutral levels.

Before then, a storm could bring 0.50" to 1.50" precipitation, mostly or all rain, to Washington, DC to Boston this weekend. A moderate snowfall with some locally significant amounts could occur across upstate New York, northern New England, and parts of southern Ontario (north and east of Toronto).

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.4°C for the week centered around January 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.22°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.52°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm to weak El Niño conditions.

For February 1981-2019, the following monthly temperature averages were recorded for cases when the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly averaged 0.00°C to +0.75°C:

ENSO R1+2 Anomaly < 0: AO+: NYC: 36.9°; Philadelphia: 37.6° (n=101 dates)
ENSO R1+2 Anomaly < 0: AO-: NYC: 34.7°; Philadelphia: 34.9° (n=97 dates)

ENSO R1+2 Anomaly > 0: AO+: NYC: 35.7°; Philadelphia: 36.6° (n=82 dates)
ENSO R1+2 Anomaly > 0: AO-: NYC: 30.9°; Philadelphia: 31.6° (n=58 dates)

February 1981-2019: NYC: 35.8°; Philadelphia: 36.0°

The SOI was +0.05 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.494.

Through January 23, the AO has averaged +1.467 for meteorological winter. That's the 5th highest average on record for the December 1-23 period.

No significant stratospheric warming event appears likely through January 31. Wave 2 activity could increase near the end of January. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS. 

On January 22, the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 2.108 (RMM). The January 21-adjusted amplitude was 2.045.

The MJO had recently spent 9 consecutive days at an amplitude of 3.000 or above. There have been only 8 cases where the MJO had an amplitude of 3.000 or above for 7 or more consecutive days. The shortest period from the start of that stretch that saw the MJO's amplitude fall below 1.000 was 20 days. The mean period was 36 days. The longest period was 55 days. Based on this historic experience, the MJO likely won't reach low amplitude until near or after the end of January.

Since 1974, there were 8 prior cases where the MJO reached Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above in the January 5-20 period. In 7 or 88% of those cases, the MJO progressed into Phases 7 and 8. The MJO moved into Phase 7 on January 20.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, New York City has an implied near 100% probability of a warmer than normal January. The monthly mean temperature could finish near 39.0° in New York City.

The probability that January 2020 will finish with among the 10 highest January average temperatures on record has increased to near 65%. The 10th warmest January occurred in 1906 with a monthly mean temperature of 38.4°. The 9th warmest January was January 1949 with an average temperature of 38.6°.

Boston, which set a January record high temperature of 74° on January 12, has had an even warmer January relative to climatology. Boston could have among the five warmest Januaries on record. The 5th warmest January there was January 2002 with a mean temperature of 36.7°. The 4th warmest January was 37.4° in 1937.

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11 hours ago, bluewave said:

You know it’s a warm January when NYC doesn’t drop below 20 and HPN and ISP stay above 15.

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Jan
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Lowest Min Temperature 
Missing Count
1 1937 25 0
2 1990 24 0
- 1932 24 0
3 2002 21 0
- 1993 21 0
- 1953 21 0
4 2020 20 9
- 1949 20 0

 

Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY - Month of Jan
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Lowest Min Temperature 
Missing Count
1 1990 21 1
2 1953 18 0
3 1993 17 2
4 2020 16 12
- 2002 16 0
5 1960 15 0
Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Jan
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Lowest Min Temperature 
Missing Count
1 1990 21 0
2 1993 18 0
3 2020 16 9
4 2002 15 0
- 1998 15 0

my two top analogs are on Westchester's list...1960 and 1993...

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Some evening thoughts...

Based on the latest teleconnections forecasts, it continues to appear that the pattern will remain largely unfavorable for moderate or significant snowfalls in the Philadelphia to New York City area through the end of January.

There is little uncertainty about Saturday's storm. That system will bring rain to the big cities of the Middle Atlantic region. The probability of widespread moderate or significant snowfall across central New York State and central New England has fallen. Moderate to locally significant amounts remain possible in parts of upstate New York and northern New England. The guidance is in good agreement about this outcome.

Another storm could impact the region near the start of February. As the prospect of a more neutral AO has fallen over the past day, so has the probability of a moderate or significant snowfall on the Mid-Atlantic region's coastal plain. Given the latest ensemble forecast (+1.000 or above), a significant snowfall for such cities as Philadelphia and New York appears unlikely.

During the January 15-February 15, 1950-2019 period New York City saw 56 storms bring 4" or more snow to New York City. Just 13% of such storms occurred when the AO was +1.000 or above and 9% occurred when the AO was +1.500 or above.

For Philadelphia, there were 45 such storms. The respective percentage for an AO of +1.500 or above was 13%, and for an AO of +1.500 or above, it was 11%.

The 12z ECMWF's outlook showing little or no snow for New York City and Philadelphia through the remainder of January is consistent with historic outcomes associated with the current strongly positive AO.

All said, it still appears that seasonal snowfall through January will likely be less than 6" in New York City and less than 1" in Philadelphia. Current totals to date are 4.8" and 0.3" respectively. Today is also Atlanta's record 675th day without even a trace of snow.

Colder air could arrive late in the first week of February or during the second week of the month as a trough develops in the East.

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The remainder of January is averaging 41degs., or 9degs AN.

Month to date is  +6.6[39.0].       January should end near +7.2[39.6], or tied for 8th Place.     It deserves it----don't you think!?

The first 8 days of Feb. are averaging 39 or about +6. (0Z, GFS)

41* here at 6am.    40* at 6:30am.    45* by 9am.    Made 50* here by 11:15am.       51* finally by  2:15pm.         53* at 3pm.

GFS is snowless till Feb.08, CMC is coldest but with no snow for the next 10 days and the EURO is a Trace near Feb.02.

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40 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Never seen this board so bereft of conversation....shows how bad things are

The North North and South North East forum folks are never at a loss for words or conversation. Of course their mediocre weather times often would be considered great for NYC metro south and East. As always .....

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NYC is currently the 9th warmest January with a week to go.

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Jan
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 1932 43.2 0
2 1990 41.4 0
- 1950 41.4 0
3 2006 40.9 0
4 1913 40.8 0
5 1937 40.2 0
- 1933 40.2 0
6 1998 40.0 0
7 2002 39.9 0
8 1880 39.2 0
9 2020 39.0 8
10 1949 38.6 0

 

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12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

NYC is currently the 9th warmest January with a week to go.

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Jan
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 1932 43.2 0
2 1990 41.4 0
- 1950 41.4 0
3 2006 40.9 0
4 1913 40.8 0
5 1937 40.2 0
- 1933 40.2 0
6 1998 40.0 0
7 2002 39.9 0
8 1880 39.2 0
9 2020 39.0 8
10 1949 38.6 0

 

As long as it won’t be the warmest my life is complete!

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READY    SET     GO     Put on your swimsuits or man the snow shovels?

JB is stressing the fact that the EURO Weeklies have 40" of Snow for us over the next 46 days, but the OP has none for the first 10 days of this period.     This would then be an inch per day affair.

Anyone remember what the weeklies were for the last 46 days to date?

Currently we have 4.8", say half of the normal.

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44 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

READY    SET     GO     Put on your swimsuits or man the snow shovels?

JB is stressing the fact that the EURO Weeklies have 40" of Snow for us over the next 46 days, but the OP has none for the first 10 days of this period.     This would then be an inch per day affair.

Anyone remember what the weeklies were for the last 46 days to date?

Currently we have 4.8", say half of the normal.

Also it was the control run of the weeklies not the standard euro weeklies 

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