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January 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
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for my friends in the NYC forum from the Lehigh Valley: wondering how crappy a winter can be, especially this one? This link should be bring back memories for all and there is some hope  that you may get some heavy snowfalls around Valentines day..  https://thestarryeye.typepad.com/weather/2014/11/each-winters-snowstorms-1970-2014.html

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7 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

The snow man and snow cover live to fight another day

 

Despite the crappy winter, we have had several days with snow cover in early December and now.

That is something my peeps just south have not had, and it makes the winter that much worse.

27F

F19E0384-89F7-4D1F-AE9B-F1B324DB4DED.jpeg

But can you build a saltman?? We can build saltmen down here! And when we are done with the saltmen we can salt rim our glasses. It is great having salt delivery from the town. (Yes this is sarcasm as I am pretty sure my salt accumulation and snow accumulation are similar this year).

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3 hours ago, CIK62 said:

If the GEFS is correct about the next 16 days, there will not be any BN day after today in its purview.         This would mean just 5 BN days out of a 48 day period had just occured---which happened to commence with the first day of calendar winter.  

DT seems to be saying, "Print out the rest of the winter and WYA  with it.        When you are done doing that,  you can wipe your nose with it.       You might want to reverse that.

Another day older and deeper in do-doo.        Really amazing how the best analog starts after one of best extended periods in modern winter history around here.    Bookend snowstorms,  a -2 morning and 16 straight sub 32* Highs.     Jan. 19---Feb. 04 1961.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814analog.off.gif

   

Just curious, do you ever follow day to day weather or do you wake up dreaming of the GEFS temperature projections relative to normal?

Doesn't it get old?

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1 minute ago, TriPol said:

You're right. 2010-2011 was an AMAZING year for snowstorms. We had two KU events that winter which followed a KU event in February 2010. We haven't had one since January 2016.

Some folks nearby have though. It's been those of us in NE/ECNJ that haven't seen much, which was the case in many years in the past. What didn't happen was regular appearances of 60-70 degrees....

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3 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Some folks nearby have though. It's been those of us in NE/ECNJ that haven't seen much, which was the case in many years in the past. What didn't happen was regular appearances of 60-70 degrees....

I think we had one of those in January 2006 right before our major Feb 2006 snowstorm. I would be alright with one 60-70 day if it meant that's what follows, but so far, it doesn't look good. 

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37 minutes ago, TriPol said:

You're right. 2010-2011 was an AMAZING year for snowstorms. We had two KU events that winter which followed a KU event in February 2010. We haven't had one since January 2016.

If needing a ku type storm is what makes a “good” winter for you...i dont really know what to say except maybe this isnt the hobby for you? Lol

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Warmer conditions will likely develop starting tomorrow. No exceptional warmth appears imminent, but readings will likely run above normal through the remainder of January.

A mild finish to a very warm January does not mean that February will likely be warmer than normal. The coefficient of determination for New York City between the January and February temperatures is just 0.07. Records go back to 1869.

Colder air could return during or just after the first week in February.

As long as the Arctic Oscillation remains strongly positive, the risk of widespread significant snow (6" or greater) from Washington, DC to Boston remains low. Since 1950, there were 11 storms that brought 6" or more snow to 2 or more of the following cities: Boston, New York City, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC. Just 1 such storm occurred when the AO was +1.000 or above. Therefore, through most of the remainder of January, the greatest risk of moderate or significant snowfall will likely exist for central and upstate New York and central and northern New England.  

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.4°C for the week centered around January 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.22°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.52°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm to weak El Niño conditions.

For February 1981-2019, the following monthly temperature averages were recorded for cases when the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly averaged 0.00°C to +0.75°C:

ENSO R1+2 Anomaly < 0: AO+: NYC: 36.9°; Philadelphia: 37.6° (n=101 dates)
ENSO R1+2 Anomaly < 0: AO-: NYC: 34.7°; Philadelphia: 34.9° (n=97 dates)

ENSO R1+2 Anomaly > 0: AO+: NYC: 35.7°; Philadelphia: 36.6° (n=82 dates)
ENSO R1+2 Anomaly > 0: AO-: NYC: 30.9°; Philadelphia: 31.6° (n=58 dates)

February 1981-2019: NYC: 35.8°; Philadelphia: 36.0°

The SOI was -3.62 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.483.

No significant stratospheric warming event appears likely through January 29. Wave 2 activity will remain relatively suppressed. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS. 

On January 20, the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 2.152 (RMM). The January 19-adjusted amplitude was 2.644.

The MJO had recently spent 9 consecutive days at an amplitude of 3.000 or above. There have been only 8 cases where the MJO had an amplitude of 3.000 or above for 7 or more consecutive days. The shortest period from the start of that stretch that saw the MJO's amplitude fall below 1.000 was 20 days. The mean period was 36 days. The longest period was 55 days. Based on this historic experience, the MJO likely won't reach low amplitude until near or after the end of January.

Since 1974, there were 8 prior cases where the MJO reached Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above in the January 5-20 period. In 7 or 88% of those cases, the MJO progressed into Phases 7 and 8. The MJO moved into Phase 7 on January 20.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, New York City has an implied near 100% probability of a warmer than normal January. The monthly mean temperature could finish near 38.5° in New York City.

The probability that January 2020 will finish with among the 10 highest January average temperatures on record has increased to just over 50%. The 10th warmest January occurred in 1906 with a monthly mean temperature of 38.4°. The 9th warmest January was January 1949 with an average temperature of 38.6°.

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1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Warmer conditions will likely develop starting tomorrow. No exceptional warmth appears imminent, but readings will likely run above normal through the remainder of January.

A mild finish to a very warm January does not mean that February will likely be warmer than normal. The coefficient of determination for New York City between the January and February temperatures is just 0.07. Records go back to 1869.

Colder air could return during or just after the first week in February.

As long as the Arctic Oscillation remains strongly positive, the risk of widespread significant snow (6" or greater) from Washington, DC to Boston remains low. Since 1950, there were 11 storms that brought 6" or more snow to 2 or more of the following cities: Boston, New York City, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC. Just 1 such storm occurred when the AO was +1.000 or above. Therefore, through most of the remainder of January, the greatest risk of moderate or significant snowfall will likely exist for central and upstate New York and central and northern New England.  

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.4°C for the week centered around January 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.22°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.52°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm to weak El Niño conditions.

For February 1981-2019, the following monthly temperature averages were recorded for cases when the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly averaged 0.00°C to +0.75°C:

ENSO R1+2 Anomaly < 0: AO+: NYC: 36.9°; Philadelphia: 37.6° (n=101 dates)
ENSO R1+2 Anomaly < 0: AO-: NYC: 34.7°; Philadelphia: 34.9° (n=97 dates)

ENSO R1+2 Anomaly > 0: AO+: NYC: 35.7°; Philadelphia: 36.6° (n=82 dates)
ENSO R1+2 Anomaly > 0: AO-: NYC: 30.9°; Philadelphia: 31.6° (n=58 dates)

February 1981-2019: NYC: 35.8°; Philadelphia: 36.0°

The SOI was -3.62 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.483.

No significant stratospheric warming event appears likely through January 29. Wave 2 activity will remain relatively suppressed. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS. 

On January 20, the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 2.152 (RMM). The January 19-adjusted amplitude was 2.644.

The MJO had recently spent 9 consecutive days at an amplitude of 3.000 or above. There have been only 8 cases where the MJO had an amplitude of 3.000 or above for 7 or more consecutive days. The shortest period from the start of that stretch that saw the MJO's amplitude fall below 1.000 was 20 days. The mean period was 36 days. The longest period was 55 days. Based on this historic experience, the MJO likely won't reach low amplitude until near or after the end of January.

Since 1974, there were 8 prior cases where the MJO reached Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above in the January 5-20 period. In 7 or 88% of those cases, the MJO progressed into Phases 7 and 8. The MJO moved into Phase 7 on January 20.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, New York City has an implied near 100% probability of a warmer than normal January. The monthly mean temperature could finish near 38.5° in New York City.

The probability that January 2020 will finish with among the 10 highest January average temperatures on record has increased to just over 50%. The 10th warmest January occurred in 1906 with a monthly mean temperature of 38.4°. The 9th warmest January was January 1949 with an average temperature of 38.6°.

1905-06 was a very slow starting winter...there was a 6" snowfall that changed to rain on 2/9...March had two storms...there was 6.5" of snow and sleet on 3/14-15...5" of wet snow that ended as rain on 3/19...1905-06 is kind of similar to this year...it ended with 20" for the season...

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https://longrangesnowcenter.net/2020/01/22/north-america-on-the-long-term-22nd-jan-2/


The latest blog update for long term snowfall prospects for North America from my perspective.

  1. PNW/BC/Northern Rockies to remain good for the next fortnight, reducing in the second week of Feb.
  2. California/the SW/Southern Rockies to improve for the latter half of February (maybe a bit earlier)
  3. Eastern US expected to improve for the last 15-20 days of February (2nd-3rd weeks of Feb, possibly into the 4th week) IMO.
  4. These impacts may be reduced/weakened by Arctic influence, etc.
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since 1956 these are the winters that had its biggest snowfall in March after a well below snowfall winter...

1955-56...

1958-59...

1959-60...

1967-68...

1975-76...

1979-80...

1980-81...

1981-82...April storm...

1983-84...

1991-92...

1992-93...

1997-98...

1998-99...

2006-07...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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3 hours ago, TriPol said:

You're right. 2010-2011 was an AMAZING year for snowstorms. We had two KU events that winter which followed a KU event in February 2010. We haven't had one since January 2016.

I started delivering mail summer of 2013 (orientation was during that July heat wave).  My first 2 winters (13-14, 14-15) working outside were snowy and brutally cold.  I took notice.  Then my third winter featured the massive blizzard which I drove to work in and then drove home after being at work for 2 hours.  This decade hasn't been that bad

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51 minutes ago, uncle W said:

since 1956 these are the winters that had its biggest snowfall in March after a well below snowfall winter...

1955-56...

1958-59...

1959-60...

1967-68...

1975-76...

1979-80...

1980-81...

1981-82...April storm...

1983-84...

1991-92...

1992-93...

1997-98...

1998-99...

2006-07...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2006 was NYC's second largest snowfall. Didn't that happen in Feb and not March?

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13 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Sorry but this year and last aren't even close to normal. Certainly not for temperatures and not for snowfall either. Forget the last 20 years the 150 year average is 28.8 inches per season.  I posted the 10 year averages per decade somewhere this morning.

NYC had 2/3 their average last year and will be lucky to get anywhere near that this year. But as you say one big storm could bring them near average. Let's hope.

We have this debate in the mid Atlantic sub too. First of all normal and avg aren’t the same. If you look at what a standard deviation for snowfall is it will likely give you a wide range. But the issue is to get that avg you need above and below avg years. If all you ever got was above avg then avg years your avg would perpetually rise.  So if you recently had a string of mostly above avg winters it is normal to have a string of below avg ones to balance it out. 

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14 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Sorry but this year and last aren't even close to normal. Certainly not for temperatures and not for snowfall either. Forget the last 20 years the 150 year average is 28.8 inches per season.  I posted the 10 year averages per decade somewhere this morning.

NYC had 2/3 their average last year and will be lucky to get anywhere near that this year. But as you say one big storm could bring them near average. Let's hope.

I'm talking about a regression to the mean. We've had an incredible amount of 30+ inch winters in the last 20 years. We had 5 straight 30+ inch winters before last year. Under 20 inches once in the last 11 years, under 25 inches twice and these are the low end Central Park measurements, all of this in above normal temperature winters outside of a few exceptions. This isn't normal. It was inevitable that we'd string together consecutive stinkers and not luck out with perfect storm tracks several times a winter.

BTW, last year ended up fairly close to normal with a late season charge. This year seems to be following a similar script continuing the 2010s theme of stuck weather patterns. We might get a few more winters like this coming up in the next few years if the pattern holds, could be entering an overdue snow drought period.

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