Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

January 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
 Share

Recommended Posts

The next 8 days are averaging 35.6degs., or 3degs. AN.

Month to date is   +8.2[.40.7].      Should be +6.7[39.1] by the 28th.      This +3 it maintains for the remainder of the month, so January ends at +6.1[38.5].       First 4 days of February are +9.

All models have no more than a Trace near the 26th.       CMC looks like its the coldest for next 10 days. 

  NB:   The 06Z GFS looks like its older brother run of exactly four days ago, which was 24" of wet snow here.    Start of Feb. looks better too at +7.5 for the first 5 days.

PAGE1REPLATE: Unfortunately SD just called an end to the winter within 3 weeks.    He must have gotten this from Judah Cohen with whom he consulted with 10 days ago.       JC stated an inexplicable heating of the ionosphere had destroyed the strat. warming.    I noted this then, but saw no follow up here from the members.

21* here at 6am.       27* by Noon.        30* by 2pm.       32* by 3:30pm.

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Of course this shows an interior storm but it wouldn't take much to shift this east. The coast has been getting screwed alot this winter. Let's hope this storm trends in our favor. 

I do not think a change in track is what we need, temps are just too warm. What we need is a stronger low with stronger dynamics. At this lead time that’s still on the table. But the airmass isn’t going to cut it at the coast without a bomb.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Outside winters like 95-96/13-14 not many. 

Yeah, we need extreme -EPO or -NAO blocking to get a colder than average winter here. Otherwise, the default pattern has been warmer than normal winters. We got the record -NAO blocking in 09-10 and 10-11. This was followed by the record -EPO blocking in 13-14 and 14-15. 

NYC DJF temperature departures 

19-20.....+3.9....through 1-19

18-19.....+1.2

17-18....+1.1

16-17....+4.2....6th warmest

15-16....+5.9....2nd warmest

14-15....-3.7

13-14....-2.2

12-13...+1.2

11-12...+5.4....3rd warmest

10-11....-2.3

09-10....-1.3


 

 

  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

This morning, the temperature sank to 20° in Central Park. January has yet to see a temperature in the teens. Tonight could be another opportunity for the temperature to push toward the teens in Central Park.

Meanwhile, if one looked at the latest teleconnections forecast, the AO is forecast to remain positive to strongly positive through the next two weeks. Nothing has changed there. To date, the AO has averaged +1.464 during meteorological winter. Just to average 0.000, it would have to average -1.867 every day starting tomorrow through February 29.

At the same time, the PNA is forecast to "flatline" (perhaps a fitting symbol of Social Media's thinking that Winter 2019-2020 has flatlined, the boredom that has swept online weather communities waiting for winter to reassert itself, or depression from Europe's non-winter to date).

PNAforecast01202020.jpg

Such highly stable PNA regimes have occurred before. One such regime occurred during January 8 through January 24, 1985. During that 17-day period, the PNA averaged +0.930. The standard deviation was 0.057. The lowest PNA figure was +0.852 on January 14. The highest was +1.011 on January 16.

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

I just wanted to touch on the MJO here and what I opined on about for close 2 weeks ago in this thread.

I am only showing this to make the point of how bad the GEFS/BC rimm plot behaved from 2 weeks out. So yes there are many who are worried about the MJO coming back out in p6 and I am not here to debate that yet because the Vp 200`s do not look very good for early Feb. 

However when you are buying what the guidance is telling you today in the very L/R, it's important to see what I was saying before. 

Here was the CFS 2 weeks ago,

20200108_221910.jpg.cbbe5e0f6bde1f153fcfff70b6951fca.jpg

 

I inked that correction which were based on the VP 200 anomalies, and here is the CFS yesterday,

 

CFSO_phase_full-8.gif.2df21be41759b85a1000741b38d6c7b4.gif

 

You can see the CFS never gave up on p7.

 

Here is latest CFS , it looks to touch 8 and die just like the GEFSBC

 

CFS20.gif

 

Now here is today`s GEFS / BC, it came around to the CFS now sees p7 and touches p8.

 

diagram_40days_forecast_GEFSBC_member-1.gif.00bbd607d6f6df4d0d9683f81c7f01a7.gif

 

 

 

 

2 weeks ago the GEFS RIMM Plots  had many believing this had no chance at p7 let along p8.

Again , these did not match the vp200 or Roundy plots.

 

 

 

20200108_221830.jpg.9b5dd507164bbdb4e5d41559256bd5f8.jpg

ensplume_small.gif.bce818a0493ca5f686cc72b7730c2fcc.gif

There is nothing to discuss this was a really poor job seeing the wave moving through. 

 

So I am just saying before you run out and buy a pair of shorts , wait to see if this new wave the models see does in fact emerge.

Again I am not saying a p6 forecast is wrong ( p6 in Feb is a torch )  I am saying don't go rushing in head 1st and buy it.

 

Based on it`s miss from 2 weeks out I can say with any confidence where this goes after the initial wave collapses.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

17 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

This morning, the temperature sank to 20° in Central Park. January has yet to see a temperature in the teens. Tonight could be another opportunity for the temperature to push toward the teens in Central Park.

Meanwhile, if one looked at the latest teleconnections forecast, the AO is forecast to remain positive to strongly positive through the next two weeks. Nothing has changed there. To date, the AO has averaged +1.464 during meteorological winter. Just to average 0.000, it would have to average -1.867 every day starting tomorrow through February 29.

At the same time, the PNA is forecast to "flatline" (perhaps a fitting symbol of Social Media's thinking that Winter 2019-2020 has flatlined, the boredom that has swept online weather communities waiting for winter to reassert itself, or depression from Europe's non-winter to date).

PNAforecast01202020.jpg

Such highly stable PNA regimes have occurred before. One such regime occurred during January 8 through January 24, 1985. During that 17-day period, the PNA averaged +0.930. The standard deviation was 0.057. The lowest PNA figure was +0.852 on January 14. The highest was +1.011 on January 16.

This looks like the first time since 2010 that the NYC January minimum temperature finishes warmer than December.

Monthly Lowest Min Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Dec
Jan
Season
2019-2020 16 20 16
2018-2019 24 2 2
2017-2018 9 5 5
2016-2017 17 14 14
2015-2016 34 11 11
2014-2015 24 8 8
2013-2014 19 4 4
2012-2013 28 11 11
2011-2012 22 13 13
2010-2011 19 6 6
2009-2010 16 13 13
  • Like 1
  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, doncat said:

Even here in suburbia have only managed a 19° this month.

 

Same: only 18.8F, which is fairly incredible when one considers my average lows are in the lower 20s. We've made it through 20 days of January and have not see an overnight low more than a couple degrees sub-normal.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

Pna finally looks great

4indices.png

 

 

Unfortunately, the continental USA will be devoid of polar air during the time-frame of greatest PNA amplitude. So, even conducive storm tracks could imply rain rather than snow for the I-95 corridor. Due to the fact that we are at the climatological height of winter, marginal airmasses can potentially work for interior areas.

  • Like 2
  • Sad 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Hope it verifies, would be nice to at least see parts of the northeast get a winter

 

If this 10 day mean verifies that has a very good shot.

The GEFS is not warm in the L/R. 

 

That`s a snowy pattern for the interior.

 

 

 

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-z500_anom_10day-0904000 JAN 20 10 DAYS.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

 

 

Unfortunately, the continental USA will be devoid of polar air during the time-frame of greatest PNA amplitude. So, even conducive storm tracks could imply rain rather than snow for the I-95 corridor. Due to the fact that we are at the climatological height of winter, marginal airmasses can potentially work for interior areas.

Yep. The pac is the only reason we are not getting a full on torch. Shades of 97-98 with a ideal storm track but a putrid airmass. 
 

 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Allsnow said:

Which have been documented well that it’s been too cold in that 11-15 day range. Perhaps some hints of change by Feb 5th but that could be rushing it.

 

I agree with the 5th, the trough digs into the OHV on the GEFS.

 

I just think that 500 is very snowy for the ski resorts New England and some here in the interior. 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Which have been documented well that it’s been too cold in that 11-15 day range. Perhaps some hints of change by Feb 5th but that could be rushing it.

 

I see the HP you see working into Alaska on D 15.

 

Let`s hope that`s right. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Yep. The pac is the only reason we are not getting a full on torch. Shades of 97-98 with a ideal storm track but a putrid airmass. 
 

 

This is a continuation of the misalignment discussion. Niño-like ridge near Hudson Bay and Niña-like ridge NE of Hawaii. Almost a combination of the 97-98 and 11-12  patterns at 500 mb to close out January.

E3CD6C17-9FE4-4299-91B8-BD71FB2332C7.thumb.png.f04b8c07ce2dd7acf99308402058ee0b.png
62449212-B09C-48E5-B757-DFCD12F67AC5.png.d4a00085da7707d02c1100c9835c5965.png

AC57E3E7-F723-48C1-850A-83130827FF18.png.a77b4ac6a33b9aaee4dc6b565f26740c.png


 

 

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

33 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This is a continuation of the misalignment discussion. Niño-like ridge near Hudson Bay and Niña-like ridge NE of Hawaii. Almost a combination of the 97-98 and 11-12  patterns at 500 mb to close out January.

E3CD6C17-9FE4-4299-91B8-BD71FB2332C7.thumb.png.f04b8c07ce2dd7acf99308402058ee0b.png
62449212-B09C-48E5-B757-DFCD12F67AC5.png.d4a00085da7707d02c1100c9835c5965.png

AC57E3E7-F723-48C1-850A-83130827FF18.png.a77b4ac6a33b9aaee4dc6b565f26740c.png


 

 

 

Just not in sink. I see improvements on the 11-15 day eps but that’s la la land. It wants to kick the ridge to Greenland and higher hgts move into Ak. Something to monitor as we get closer. It will take time to flush this pac air out. By day 15 on the eps we are still above avg with those changes. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Once again we have a stellar analog leading the pack of '02/05/1961' which picks up right after that winter concluded so spectacularly.        16 straight High T's under 32, a  -2 morning and an 18" Blizzard.      Nothing happened after that day to take the bank.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814analog.off.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...