Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

January 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
 Share

Recommended Posts

Day 9 / 10 threats come and go but this has been a period that really bares watching.

The ridge over H/B argues for anything that tries to cut should die and a secondary should come up off OBX.

It is the 1st period inside the pattern change that should be " watched " but do not be surprised if there`s more than one threat rolling out of the S Branch with those high heights over

Hudson Bay. 

 

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-conus-mslp_with_low_locs-0018400 JAN 16 MILLER A.png

 

 

 

1125736092_gfs-ensemble-all-avg-conus-mslp_with_low_locs-0083200JAN16GEFS.png.e59b040beef41751666a61b42b861249.png

 

 

 

 

 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

So 06-07 was warmer. 13 years ago

 

We shall see.

Dec 2006 was 43.6 but December 2019 was 38.8

January 2007 was 37.5, so far this January is 42.7.

I'd call it a draw right now.

December 2015 was an unprecedented 50.8 which was close to the average temperature for April.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

We shall see.

Dec 2006 was 43.6 but December 2015 was an unprecedented 50.8 which was close to the average temperature for April.

January 2007 was 37.5, so far this January is 42.7.

I'd call it a draw right now.

what's impressive is that Dec '19 had a cold first 3 weeks, so most of the warmth was in 4 weeks....

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

what's impressive is that Dec '19 had a cold first 3 weeks, so most of the warmth was in 4 weeks....

Good point

8 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

We shall see.

Dec 2006 was 43.6 but December 2019 was 38.8

January 2007 was 37.5, so far this January is 42.7.

I'd call it a draw right now.

December 2015 was an unprecedented 50.8 which was close to the average temperature for April.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

p7 and p8 will argue for the trough to be forced into the SE as we roll into Feb. 

If you can get the ridge to stick around in Canada, you are really going to be in business.

The 12z GEFS has roughly 3 to 4 SWs coming under the block over the next 15. 

Huge oppo. 

 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

We're at the halfway mark for January and NYC is currently 10.2° above normal for the month, Poughkeepsie is 11.9° above normal, Trenton is 11.4° above and Albany is a ridiculous 14.6° above normal.

Nightmare flashbacks to December 2015, not quite as bad but getting close.

Dec 2015 is safely the most absurd month imo. It never went below freezing in the city. Its insane to get though Dec without getting down to 32 for even a few mins. If it was Nov it still would be considered a warm month. Despite lacking the drama or destructiveness of a major storm, taken as a whole, Dec 2015 to me is one the most remarkable weather events in our history.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, frankdp23 said:

the next day looks even...redder, lol.   We will see what happens.  Seems like a large change

Ouch.  If we can't hold onto the cold beyond a few days, we're in trouble (and even the cold next few days into early next week is not anything that's crazy for Jan) Last Jan had some short lived but much more impressive cold.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 minutes ago, dWave said:

Dec 2015 is safely the most absurd month imo. It never went below freezing in the city. Its insane to get though Dec without getting down to 32 for even a few mins. If it was Nov it still would be considered a warm month. Despite lacking the drama or destructiveness of a major storm, taken as a whole, Dec 2015 to me is one the most remarkable weather events in our history.

December 2015 would have tied 1999 as the 9th warmest November on record.

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

29 minutes ago, frankdp23 said:

 

Capture.PNG

Too much Niño influence on the pattern since the 2015-16 super Niño. We haven't had a sustained cold winter since 2014-15. 

Need a Niña with some AO/NAO blocking like 2010-11, 2008-09, 2000-01 or 1995-96 to set the balance right for a cold winter. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

33 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

pattern change

ecmwf_T850a_namer_9.png

 

850 anomalies hooked up out of HB for 3 days. While your surface temps on the 20/21/22 are in the 20`s.

We do flip on the 20th.

 

 

252324785_ecmwf-deterministic-namer-t2m_f_anom_5day-9867200JAN162METER5DAY.thumb.png.e3d97cc9481adaac3b57b9f1c4b9362a.png

 

I guess that transient H/B ridge will give you a week of plus 5 , but using 850 anomalies in late Jan man ? Esch

 

The response to the AAM spike looks real. 

 

 2054242231_ecmwf-deterministic-conus-t2m_f_anom_5day-0040000JAN14BOOM.thumb.png.bd657811b3a16bdfa5dbe5f41e706929.png

But that`s plus 5 for 3 days. 

 

 

Then once that rolls back , SW after SW should develop. That ridging is your friend, it what will develop into the block Hudson Bay.

 

When was the last time we saw a 5 day mean like that ? 

 

compday_c3TSoUkzxo.gif.dd0c071bb26f138910fe47d49fa7db24.gif

 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...