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January 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
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The next 8 days are averaging 29.5degs., or about 2.5degs. BN.

Month to date is   +10.2[42.7].     Should be about +6.1[38.1] by the 24th.

Just a T to 2" of Snow for Saturday does it.

47* here at 6am.    46* at 7am.     48* at 8am.     50* and windy, drizzle at 9am.     48* windy, at Noon.     45* windy, by 2pm.

06Z GFS IS SUPER COLD!!!!!     It wants to try to equal feat of Jan. 19-Feb. 05 1961, with NO 32 HIGHS starting Jan 20.    Leaving out today and Feb. 01, it averages 20.1 for 15 days!       A Reverse Full Nelson for sure.

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The warmth for the 1st half of February was more impressive to the north of NYC. It was the 2nd warmest on record at Albany and 6th warmest in NYC. That’s +14.6 in Albany and +10.2 in NYC.

Time Series Summary for Albany Area, NY (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Mean Avg Temperature Jan 1 to Jan 15
Missing Count
1 2007-01-15 37.6 0
2 2020-01-15 37.2 0
3 1932-01-15 36.8 0
4 1937-01-15 35.1 0
5 1889-01-15 35.0 0
6 1930-01-15 34.8 0
7 1874-01-15 34.0 0
8 1907-01-15 33.6 0
9 1928-01-15 33.3 0
10 1936-01-15 33.2 0

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Mean Avg Temperature Jan 1 to Jan 15
Missing Count
1 2007-01-15 46.4 0
2 1932-01-15 44.0 0
3 1950-01-15 43.6 0
4 1907-01-15 43.5 0
5 1998-01-15 43.3 0
6 2020-01-15 42.7 0
7 2005-01-15 42.2 0
8 1937-01-15 42.1 0
9 1930-01-15 41.7 0
10 1890-01-15 41.4 0
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18 hours ago, bluewave said:

It certainly looks like we are moving into more of an El Niño pattern. The big AAM rise and strong WWB pattern are classic El Niño features. February is typically our best month of winter with an El Niño. The ridge over SE Canada that the models are indicating around the 25th is the January +AAM composite. That ridge usually pulls back in February allowing a colder pattern. But we can always use some help from the -AO and -NAO to make any El Niño February better.

 

Interesting post ,but what are your thoughts here in regards to using Februaries  with AAM > 2.0 per as BAMWX just did as means to forecast warmth in the East for this coming Feb. Would you say unreliable because they are focusing on just one thing? 

 

 

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meanwhile JB says ice age:

Been banging the drum since the holidays about the big reversal coming , the transition Jan 16-20 then rest of winter cold and stormy . Here are the last 30 days, and the JMA starting the 19th for the next 28 days, cfsv2 for the next 30. Analogs said it, models agreeing
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Just now, Brian5671 said:

meanwhile JB says ice age:

Been banging the drum since the holidays about the big reversal coming , the transition Jan 16-20 then rest of winter cold and stormy . Here are the last 30 days, and the JMA starting the 19th for the next 28 days, cfsv2 for the next 30. Analogs said it, models agreeing

They both suck for different reasons. 

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17 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Judah Cohen says it's about over:

To further elaborate completion of this troposphere-stratosphere coupling favors multiple weeks of positive #Arctic Oscillaton and overall mild weather and relatively light #snowfall. At this point hard for #winter to recover.

He has been saying this all winter. He is a fraud.

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10 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

He has been saying this all winter. He is a fraud.

and you were saying to ignore the +AO charts for early January - looks like there is a chance of the AO going negative soon - or should we ignore that ?

ao.sprd2.gif

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3 minutes ago, PB-99 said:

So much has happened in the guidance in regards to the 20th, the MJO progression and the overall idea over the last week since I told you what was going to happen this that is stunningly stupid , even for you.

The MJO is now unlikely to enter phase 8-1 like you said. The pattern is still changing but in a different way than forecast. 

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Just now, Brian5671 said:

again, the pattern has not happened yet.   You arrogantly yell at people here, but let the pattern verify before you do that. And I'l l remind you that you did this last year only for nothing to verify.

 

Yes I am arrogantly telling posters who said the SE ridge would be there on the 20th that they were wrong.

I am telling posters who said the MJO would fade after p6 that they are wrong.

I am telling people that denied the pattern would change on Jan 20th posted in here 15 day away , they were wrong.

 

Do you not see where the guidance has come too, do you think continuing to play the def dumb and blind card in here is a good look.

Because making believe the guidance isn`t a complete flip after Jan 20th is just silly. 

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1 minute ago, PB-99 said:

 

Yes I am arrogantly telling posters who said the SE ridge would be there on the 20th that they were wrong.

I am telling posters who said the MJO would fade after p6 that they are wrong.

I am telling people that denied the pattern would change on Jan 20th posted in here 15 day away , they were wrong.

 

Do you not see where the guidance has come too, do you think continuing to play the def dumb and blind card in here is a good look.

Because making believe the guidance isn`t a complete flip after Jan 20th is just silly. 

sometimes persistence forecasting is the way to go-maybe we do change, but many times, breaking a bad pattern is tough to do.

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15 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Nothing's happened yet....you always spike the football but you're only at the 40 yard line lol

To be fair, everyone busted last winter, @PB-99 included. Hell @earthlightand others called for this December and January to rock this year. In the end of the day it is weather, we cannot control it, we can just try to predict it. Arrogance has no place in it, as everyone on here has busted big time. 

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8 minutes ago, PB-99 said:

 

This is sheer stupidity.

 

This is phase 8.

 

You don`t know how this works so you continue to make an idiot out of yourself in here 

 

 

twc_globe_mjo_vp200.png

If you were so confident you wouldn't be throwing a fit and every plot I've seen takes the MJO into phase 7 and then into the COD. 

There's a reason the AO/NAO aren't tanking. 

ECMF_phase_51m_full.gif

ensplume_small.gif

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