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January 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
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1 minute ago, Mersky said:

Why does every storm or cold spell have to be memorable?? Thank God most of you were not around in the 70’s or 80’s. You all would be a sorry, miserable bunch if you were 

I was around for the 80's (and the 90's which were mostly horrid but not as horrid as the 80's) lol.  not everything needs to be memorable, but some were tossing around "78 and '15 for analogs...
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I’m going to go on a limb here and say we’re going to start getting a lot of snow soon. Yo me this is the type of pattern that’s just cold enough but not too cold to suppress our storms. That’s just my gut to be honest... but cmc and gfs both have the storm for next week and it’s not cutting or out to sea. It’s kinda shredded but it does eventually redevelop off the coast of Cape Hatteras. Let’s see what the euro says for next weeks storm, Saturday's event looks like a minimal snow event changing to rain on all models now!

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5 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Do you think will then get more of a classic Nino February? The stj is definitely going to become more active and with are at the coldest climo part of the year. We don’t need -25 over are heads to snow in late January 

It certainly looks like we are moving into more of an El Niño pattern. The big AAM rise and strong WWB pattern are classic El Niño features. February is typically our best month of winter with an El Niño. The ridge over SE Canada that the models are indicating around the 25th is the January +AAM composite. That ridge usually pulls back in February allowing a colder pattern. But we can always use some help from the -AO and -NAO to make any El Niño February better.

 

 

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5D45EEB3-EAA9-479B-8C49-8F08129F2A33.gif

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14 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It certainly looks like we are moving into more of an El Niño pattern. The big AAM rise and strong WWB pattern are classic El Niño features. February is typically our best month of winter with an El Niño. The ridge over SE Canada that the models are indicating around the 25th is the January +AAM composite. That ridge usually pulls back in February allowing a colder pattern. But we can always use some help from the -AO and -NAO to make any El Niño February better.

 

 

04C86C18-9C2C-4759-9579-68C3A667D64D.gif

5D45EEB3-EAA9-479B-8C49-8F08129F2A33.gif

Nice post! Yeah, you’re 100% correct about the +AAM. We just need that to relax a bit to pull the ridge back west. Great stuff @bluewave. I don’t have access to the AAM charts. 

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2 hours ago, psv88 said:

Wow. Has to be one of the warmest first 2 weeks of January. @donsutherland1 any stats on this? This seems historic

January 1-15, 2020 will very likely finish with a mean temperature of 42.8°. That would rank as the 6th warmest start to January in New York City (Central Park).

The five warmer years were:

2007: 46.4°
1932: 44.0°
1950: 43.6°
1907: 43.5°
1998: 43.3°

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51 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

January 1-15, 2020 will very likely finish with a mean temperature of 42.8°. That would rank as the 6th warmest start to January in New York City (Central Park).

The five warmer years were:

2007: 46.4°
1932: 44.0°
1950: 43.6°
1907: 43.5°
1998: 43.3°

I guess no pond skating back in 1932? Snoski and weatherpruf would have been jumping off their horses.

 

just reading this thread you would think the warmest first half of This month has happen in the last decade.

 

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19 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

January 1-15, 2020 will very likely finish with a mean temperature of 42.8°. That would rank as the 6th warmest start to January in New York City (Central Park).

The five warmer years were:

2007: 46.4°
1932: 44.0°
1950: 43.6°
1907: 43.5°
1998: 43.3°

It really puts things into perspective just how spectacularly warm 2007 was. 

Would be nice to follow that into Feb/March. 

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The official 8-14 day outlook is already AN as of today.         AN heights invading Canada  and  'crushing' the SE Trough.     Cafe Wha?   LOL.

The best analog now is Jan. 1995, which saw no action till Feb. 04.           I reached 54* today.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814analog.off.gif

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17 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

My comment was tongue in cheek. But some have posted as if this first half of January is the new normal and winters of yore are over. When you look at the stats most of those warm starts to January were in the early 1900s

Yes, in 170 years of record keeping there have been 5 warmer years, and two of them were from before 1950. Three of the 6 (including this year), were in the past 22 years (1998, 2007, 2019). The prior years were 1907, 1932 and 1950.

Essentially, in the 148 years before 1998, there were 3 warmer years, and in the 22 years since, there were 3 years in the top 6. 

This is all dumb anyway, as the earth has warmed only 1 degree C since 1850, so you will still have great extremes, cold and warm. -5, becomes -3, which is still pretty ****ing cold. Nothing dumber than "it snowed last week, global warming is a hoax"

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4 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Yes, in 170 years of record keeping there have been 5 warmer years, and two of them were from before 1950. Three of the 6 (including this year), were in the past 22 years (1998, 2007, 2019). The prior years were 1907, 1932 and 1950.

Essentially, in the 148 years before 1998, there were 3 warmer years, and in the 22 years since, there were 3 years in the top 6. 

This is all dumb anyway, as the earth has warmed only 1 degree C since 1850, so you will still have great extremes, cold and warm. -5, becomes -3, which is still pretty ****ing cold. Nothing dumber than "it snowed last week, global warming is a hoax"

100% agree. Perhaps in 50 years our winters will be more like North Carolina.  imo are extremes have gotten more extreme as their seems to me no middle of the road anymore. 

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