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January 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
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1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

I actually turned off the heat here Saturday to Sunday-set it back on last night before we went to bed.    Amazing

I didn't have to turn mine off, it didn't run on its own from Saturday morning until this morning on the downstairs zone, second floor zone didn't even call for heat this morning.  Folks talking about how cold it feels this morning, which is still 10-12 above average, and already freaking out about this weekend.  So yeah, what a good winter is is certainly relative.  

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3 hours ago, weatherpruf said:

Never did I say that Adirondack Park climate was like NYC or even Dutchess County. Just reporting an observation. In fact the post is implicit that it isn't. NYC is not the worst place for snow in the region either; parts of it aren't, parts of it are ok. The coastal regions aren't, but the Bronx and even parts of SI sometimes do better than the rest of the city.

Yea it depends where in the city but overall the city seems to generally do worse than all the regions around it. Yes parts of SI and parts of the Bronx are the ideal places in the city to get snow but overall the urban heating influence seems to limit accumulations in any kind of marginal events.

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1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

I think the colder air delay now matches the MJO plot and delayed effects.

I think we'll see stronger cold surges right as February begins. 

However you definitely don't need arctic air in Jan through mid Feb for it to snow. Early signs of the MJO curling into phase 8 as January ends. 

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As I have pointed out over the last week plus in here the CFS is leading the way and is now strongly into 8 as the hovmoller plots and vp200`s have been saying for 10 days now. 

 

CFSO_phase_full.gif

 

The GEFS take it one step further and goes into p1 

Which is where this is going.

 

That`s why the Jan 20 - Feb 20 call is alive and well

 

 

Phase diagram of the MJO index from the operational GFS

 

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2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

I think the colder air delay now matches the MJO plot and delayed effects.

 

There is ZERO delay in what is coming.

 

Jan 20 was always the return date. 

 

If anything most are going to snow on the 19th , so the flip is on time. 

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4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I think we'll see stronger cold surges right as February begins. 

However you definitely don't need arctic air in Jan through mid Feb for it to snow. Early signs of the MJO curling into phase 8 as January ends. 

 

What do you think is happening between Jan 20 and Jan 31.

Have you looked at any 500 mb maps and temp anomalies ? 

 

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Gone is the garbage turn back into 4/5/6.

 

You will typically see the RIMM plots want to fade back to the base state in the 11-15 , so you use the hovmollers and vp 200 to see if it matches. 

 

This is wrong once again and will head into 8 and then 1.

 

diagram_40days_forecast_GEFSBC_member.gif

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Three quick thoughts this afternoon:

1. The base case has been that the MJO would progress into Phases 7 and 8. With the MJO now in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 3.430, things remain well on track for such an outcome. Historically, cases where the MJO reaches a peak amplitude of 3.000 or above during meteorological winter do not fall below an amplitude of 1.000 for two weeks or longer from their date of peak amplitude in a large majority of cases (>80%). This would imply that the MJO will likely remain at an amplitude of 1.000 or above for much or all of the rest of January.

At this point, guidance suggesting a fairly rapid collapse in the MJO's amplitude should be discounted.

2. When the MJO reaches Phase 7 at a very high amplitude (2.000 or above), measurable snowfall in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions is similar to climatology. That would imply 2 measurable snow events for such cities as Philadelphia, Newark, and New York City and 2-3 such events for Boston.

3. The first such candidate for a measurable snow event is a storm that will impact the region this coming weekend. Although it's too early to pin down possible accumulations, this seems to be the kind of storm that has brought 1"-3"/2"-4" to Philadelphia to New York City (more north and west of this area and in New England, less south and east of that area) in the past.

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4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Let’s hope that the 21-23rd potential can make it far enough north. Eric Webb did a great job with the stats. MJO phase 7 is the best phase for winter storm potential in North Carolina during January. 

 

 

The mean trough might be too Far East for us. FWIW the euro was a close miss. 

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On 1/3/2020 at 10:26 AM, PB-99 said:

 

And probably progresses thru 7 and 8 as well.

 

Those RIMM plots were adamant about looping in p6 12 days ago and instead came out into 7 and 8.

 

I have no gripe with the MJO going into 5 and 6. I do have an issue with those who think it just stays there, I believe it progresses well  by day 20 

 

 I am happy Eric saw p7 too he has done a great job. 

 

However it was seen here 10 days ago when many thought the MJO would be stuck in p6. 

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10 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

The mean trough might be too Far East for us. FWIW the euro was a close miss. 

Hopefully, we can move past the the southern stream suppression mode of recent times. The trough axis was also too Far East on 1-13-19. That one was right after the MJO phase 7-8 passage.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/index_20190113.html

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24 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Hopefully, we can move past the the southern stream suppression mode of recent times. The trough axis was also too Far East on 1-13-19. That one was right after the MJO phase 7-8 passage.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/index_20190113.html

Some Mid Atlantic crush jobs on the idv eps with that closed low look. 
 

It’s definitely going to get active along the east coast. Eps has a potential costal the middle of next week and the following weekend. I like the the axis of the trough around the 25th. 

FB2C6865-E6DD-42AB-911E-362ED717D5F3.png

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