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January 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
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6 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Never in my lifetime, and not something I hoped I'd ever see. Kind of scary when you think about what could follow in years to come.

Sooner or later have to figure we get a stretch like this in summer when the consequences will be worse than just wrecking a winter month.  

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41 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

IGNORE THEM!  and do yourself a favor, BLOCK THEM like I have. It will save you the headache. For all we know these people could be the moderators/administrators just trying to stir a debate lol.

Totally agree. Some people are here just to share facts as they are, like those facts or not! Other people are here just to celebrate that it’s going to be warm, or specifically that there is no chance of snow simply to disappoint other people. Pathetic. At this point I have so many people on ignore that some days I’m missing entire pages! Well worth it.

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As much as I am not a snow lover... Ive seen this many times over the years. Winter isn't over here until the end of March. At ANY time we can get a major snowfall here in the next 2 months and it's more likely than not.

Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk

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Through 7 am, new daily record high temperatures were set in cities including Albany, Allentown, Boston, Bridgeport, Harrisburg, Hartford, Poughkeepsie, Providence, and Worcester. The sun will return over the next hour or two in the New York Metro area.

However, the warmest readings of January are now ending. The January 20-31 period looks to be colder than normal overall with a mean temperature around 28° +/- 2° for the period as a whole for New York City.

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35 minutes ago, TriPol said:

Ha! Look at that! A line of thunderstorms broke up before reaching the NYC Metro area. Can't even get a good thunderstorm in January!

lol I was wondering where the hell did it go. Vanished at the Hudson river. Does look like just north of the city may of got a little something. At the GWB though it just fell apart.

Temp is 66 but dewpoint falling into the 50s, with a few breaks in the clouds.

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27 minutes ago, tek1972 said:

As much as I am not a snow lover... Ive seen this many times over the years. Winter isn't over here until the end of March. At ANY time we can get a major snowfall here in the next 2 months and it's more likely than not.

Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk
 

We have never seen a prolonged stretch of warm weather like this. We have never seen temperatures close to 70° at night in the middle of January.

walk outside right now in shorts and a T-shirt sun is coming out to our west… You have never seen anything like this before on January 11 

 

I don’t know what the rest of the winter holds, but this stretch of January weather has been simply unprecedented. It is time to stop comparing this to previous warm winters and acknowledge we are in a new league now.

The cooler week ahead features temperatures at least 10° above normal with two days in the mid 50s. That is the big cool down coming tonight. Unprecedented

 

 

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28 minutes ago, dWave said:

lol I was wondering where the hell did it go. Vanished at the Hudson river. Does look like just north of the city may of got a little something. At the GWB though it just fell apart.

Temp is 66 but dewpoint falling into the 50s, with a few breaks in the clouds.

May have been here.  I got .25”.

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29 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

We have never seen a prolonged stretch of warm weather like this. We have never seen temperatures close to 70° at night in the middle of January.

walk outside right now in shorts and a T-shirt sun is coming out to our west… You have never seen anything like this before on January 11 

 

I don’t know what the rest of the winter holds, but this stretch of January weather has been simply unprecedented. It is time to stop comparing this to previous warm winters and acknowledge we are in a new league now.

The cooler week ahead features temperatures at least 10° above normal with two days in the mid 50s. That is the big cool down coming tonight. Unprecedented

 

 

I've seen winters like this before. 

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11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The GFS still has a cold bias at that time range. You can see the Euro had less. Looks like a front end thump potential than change to rain scenario at the coast. The storm still ends up going to our west. 
 

 

 

 

The euro has had an amped bias all winter. Can it be right? Sure but look what happened with the last 2 storms.

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Just now, bluewave said:

Those GFS snowfall maps have been terrible beyond a few days all season.

they will not show exact totals BUT still gives you an idea that there is a threat for accumulating snow - since you are critical of their output - what exactly do you predict for next weekend ??

 

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2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We will be transitioning from phase 5 to phase 6 over the next week. So the SE ridge will still be a player. This means that the storm will probably front end thump to rain. The GFS and CMC will have too much of a cold bias at those ranges. So the snowfall forecasts will probably be to heavy. 

Transitioning from 6 -7 this weekend on the 18th -19th

71C363BE-2406-41A7-B193-813C8070F452.gif.19c1df3a1e9309ba5b1785f740e07091.gif

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25 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

they will not show exact totals BUT still gives you an idea that there is a threat for accumulating snow - since you are critical of their output - what exactly do you predict for next weekend ??

 

Ill take nothing on the ground in NYC post storm if I was putting $$ down

 

 

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46 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said:

I don't get what all the panic is this sub is about...I just looked at the almanac and y'all have been like +1 until yesterday...normal NYC fluctuations, and yes they are quite warm at times but that's what the new climate looks like. 

In December that was true, but so far January is about a +9, not even factoring in today.

Personally I'd just like temperatures to get back close to seasonal. It's plenty cold enough this time of year, especially in the HV where I reside, for snow if we could just get back to seasonal norms for a nice stretch.

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12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

There is still a lag with the MJO. So there are often some lingering elements from the previous phase near transitions.

71C363BE-2406-41A7-B193-813C8070F452.gif

so now you are saying the short range MJO analyses is incorrect along with the long range beyond day 10 ??????

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