nycwinter Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 53 minutes ago, bluewave said: NYC already in the top 10 warmest January 1st to 15th periods before the warmest temperatures arrive. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Jan 1 to Jan 15 Missing Count 1 2007-01-15 46.4 0 2 1932-01-15 44.0 0 3 1950-01-15 43.6 0 4 1907-01-15 43.5 0 5 1998-01-15 43.3 0 6 2005-01-15 42.2 0 7 1937-01-15 42.1 0 8 1930-01-15 41.7 0 9 1890-01-15 41.4 0 10 2020-01-15 41.2 8 hmm so in years 1932 1950 and 1907 when their was no global climate change january 1-15 were warmer.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 1 hour ago, jfklganyc said: 31F for our “cold” morning Just killed a mosquito in my kitchen If that doesnt sum up this winter...I dont know what does Saw an article that great lakes ice cover trails even last year...LOL. Stores have stocks of ice melt, snowblowers, sleds that are just sitting there. On the bright side Jan heating bills will be lower especially those with Nat Gas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 1 hour ago, jfklganyc said: 31F for our “cold” morning Just killed a mosquito in my kitchen If that doesnt sum up this winter...I dont know what does Just wait till the weekend, completely absurd departures possible. We may see a 70F reading under cloudy skies in mid January...that's insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 29 minutes ago, nycwinter said: hmm so in years 1932 1950 and 1907 when their was no global climate change january 1-15 were warmer.. That 1932 record warmest January still stands for NYC. It’s the only winter month that hasn’t set a new warmest record since 2015. https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/warmcoldmonths.pdf Top 3 warmest winter months in NYC Dec 50.8...2015 44.1...2001 43.8...1984 Jan 43.2....1932 41.4....1990/1950 40.9....1913/2006 Feb 42.0...2018 41.6...2017 40.9...2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 That's a big change on the GE FS rmm plots for the mjo. Takes it through 6 very Amplified almost to phase 7 at the end. Yesterday had the wave dying off in six and looping back towards five. Also if guidance is remotely correct starting next week Thursday we look to more seasonable to below-normal temperatures while the mjo is still in its warm phases 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 Also of note if long-range guidance is correct it doesn't look like we go below normal and dry but it looks very active love the lower Heights just north of Hawaii in the extended. Maybe we can salvage part of January after all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 13 minutes ago, binbisso said: That's a big change on the GE FS rmm plots for the mjo. Takes it through 6 very Amplified almost to phase 7 at the end. Yesterday had the wave dying off in six and looping back towards five. Also if guidance is remotely correct starting next week Thursday we look to more seasonable to below-normal temperatures while the mjo is still in its warm phases We can always get transient cool shots behind cold fronts in phase 6. But root for the GEFS to keep going to phase 8 by the start of February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 7 minutes ago, bluewave said: We can always get transient cool shots behind cold fronts in phase 6. But root for the GEFS to keep going to phase 8 by the start of February. Yeah it will be great to get phase 8 heading into our snowiest month should make February very interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 13 minutes ago, bluewave said: We can always get transient cool shots behind cold fronts in phase 6. But root for the GEFS to keep going to phase 8 by the start of February. Ahem. Now you believe me huh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 7 minutes ago, PB-99 said: Ahem. Now you believe me huh Believe you? I have been saying that the EPS was probably too weak going into phase 6. So we probably get a 6 looking composite around the 17-24th. That is a transition phase with lingering influences from 5 with the -PNA. If we go phase 7 last week of January, then we get improvements in the EPO and PNA. But the real prize people are hoping for would be getting to 8 first week of February. Would match our recent backloaded winters theme. Hopefully, this works out. That’s actually one of the EPS biases. It tends to be too weak with MJO 6 after phase 5. Probably another reason that we could see plenty of model volatility after phase 5. https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0862.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 Just now, bluewave said: Believe you? I have been saying that the EPS was probably too weak going into phase 6. So we probably get a 6 looking composite around the 17-24th. That is a transition phase with lingering influences from 5 with the -PNA. If we go phase 7 last week of January, then we get improvements in the EPO and PNA. But the real prize people are hoping for would be getting to 8 first week of February. Would match our recent backloaded winters theme. Hopefully, this works out. A trip through 7/8/1/2 would be the holy grail-still in lala land though but better trend last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: A trip through 7/8/1/2 would be the holy grail-still in lala land though but better trend last night. The key is getting the successful transition from 7-8. But we have plenty of time to see how things play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 11 minutes ago, bluewave said: Believe you? I have been saying that the EPS was probably too weak going into phase 6. So we probably get a 6 looking composite around the 17-24th. That is a transition phase with lingering influences from 5 with the -PNA. If we go phase 7 last week of January, then we get improvements in the EPO and PNA. But the real prize people are hoping for would be getting to 8 first week of February. Would match our recent backloaded winters theme. Hopefully, this works out. That’s actually one of the EPS biases. It tends to be too weak with MJO 6 after phase 5. Probably another reason that we could see plenty of model volatility after phase 5. https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0862.1 On 1/6/2020 at 11:13 AM, bluewave said: The risk for late January is that the the forcing gets stuck near phase 6 like the EPS shows. While these post day 10 forecasts can be low skill, the record SST’s west of the date line may support such an outcome. But a later MJO pulse in February could make it closer to phase 8. We’ll just have to wait and see. Yes you had a strong p 6 but the above stalled it there. While I was arguing that we were heading into p7 and away from p6 , I thought this to be your position. My apologies , has this since changed ? Do you know see us easily getting in p7 and heading on into p8 like I did/ do ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 Once again we keyed on the fake loop on the GEFS We will strongly go into p7 and head into p8 One only has to look at the Jan 1 - 15 period when the MJO in p4 reaches an amplitude of 1.5 SD 9x out of 10 the MJO will circle into p8. And as I pointed out over the last few days in here that is where we are going. The EPS punts the trough off the WC by day 9 now. We are now inside 10 days, the GEFS is just slower but has finally come around. So to the " winters dead crowd " and those who were on wait until Feb 15, I think you can see that this gets back and gets back here before then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 1 minute ago, PB-99 said: On 1/6/2020 at 11:13 AM, bluewave said: The risk for late January is that the the forcing gets stuck near phase 6 like the EPS shows. While these post day 10 forecasts can be low skill, the record SST’s west of the date line may support such an outcome. But a later MJO pulse in February could make it closer to phase 8. We’ll just have to wait and see. Yes you had a strong p 6 but the above stalled it there. While I was arguing that we were heading into p6 and away from p6 , I thought this to be your position. My apologies , has this since changed ? Do you know see us easily getting in p7 and heading on into p8 like I did/ do ? I was talking about the 17-24th period. So it looks like the models are correcting stronger with phase 6 now. We need to get it over to phase 7 January 25-31 so we can work on improving the EPO and PNA. That’s why I mentioned a possible 8 for February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 25 minutes ago, bluewave said: The key is getting the successful transition from 7-8. But we have plenty of time to see how things play out. If the MJO doesn't help us out, can we look to the EPO hopefully going negative at some point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 Flurries here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 17 minutes ago, bluewave said: I was talking about the 17-24th period. So it looks like the models are correcting stronger with phase 6 now. We need to get it over to phase 7 January 25-31 so we can work on improving the EPO and PNA. That’s why I mentioned a possible 8 for February. You also have to consider the lagged response, which is why I favor mid Feb for colder weather. This assumes the wave keeps progressing and doesn't slow down in 6/7. If it does slow down then the cold would arrive late Feb and into March, which lines up with our late winter/early spring cold/snow of the past decade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 10 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: If the MJO doesn't help us out, can we look to the EPO hopefully going negative at some point? We can get help from the -EPO as soon as we get closer to phase 7 in late January. Here is what the MJO did the last 2 times we had such an amplified phase 4-5 passage in January. Both times we eventually got over closer to phase 8 in February. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 37 minutes ago, bluewave said: I was talking about the 17-24th period. So it looks like the models are correcting stronger with phase 6 now. We need to get it over to phase 7 January 25-31 so we can work on improving the EPO and PNA. That’s why I mentioned a possible 8 for February. Ahh ok I read " late Jan ". Kool , we seem to agree now. Here is my position once again, we will be heading into 7 and then into p8 as I have been posting in here since last Thursday. At that time the MJO Rimm plots were trying to fade the MJO back around into the COD and the concerns at that time ( not you ) was that were going to circle back to into p4/5/6 because of the warm water N of Australia. That was easily pegged as garbage and tossed aside. Now p7 doesn`t bring the trough into the east out body and soul in fact it`s Ttrough is probably just east of the Rockies but I think what people kept missing was that the Neg the EPS was ejecting wasn`t some pig pac poorly sourced negative that once east of the Rockies would just end up down sloping warm PAC air in the east. Typically they are, that`s why p7 isn`t BN and one would have to wait for the typical p8 response. However and another silly argument by some ( again not you ) was what that there had to be " a lag ", again that was also pointed out as garbage because that piece of the TPV the EPS ejects is real LLC air and that undercuts the ridge starting on d9, you can see that as the 0 line is down in N/C , by day 15 it`s in S/C. It is why the EPS was faster weakening the ridge in the means. So what does this all mean ? You will start to see the a more favorable 500 by day 9 now. That doesn`t always mean " snow " but surely the suppression of the SE RIDGE, the end to the plus 10 to plus 20 we have experienced during this 30 day period and a N regime at 2 meter. ( late Jan N is all you need ) . But the upper air pattern gets better and the point being driven home here for a week by me was, winter was not over , the SE ridge would get muted and we should return to a more N late Jan pattern by Jan 20. Which will lead into the core of winter Feb idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 13 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: You also have to consider the lagged response, which is why I favor mid Feb for colder weather. This assumes the wave keeps progressing and doesn't slow down in 6/7. If it does slow down then the cold would arrive late Feb and into March, which lines up with our late winter/early spring cold/snow of the past decade. Zero lag. And the MJO doesn`t slow. Non of this has any support, it`s complete nonsense. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 The CFS has continued to lead the way. This should be no surprise as the Roundy plots have been showing this for a week now. Here is the GFS / GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 It's great the GEFS doesnt stall in 6 anymore and now moving into 7. Things should get better by months end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 20 minutes ago, Snow88 said: It's great the GEFS doesnt stall in 6 anymore and now moving into 7. Things should get better by months end. As of the forecast today. Who knows what the models will say tomorrow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 11 minutes ago, Snow88 said: It's great the GEFS doesnt stall in 6 anymore and now moving into 7. Things should get better by months end. It's only the freaking 8th, months end is over three weeks away. I'm hoping things get better way before months end. I'm hoping by the 18th or so. Call me a wild eyed optimist. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 saw a few flurries this morning probably only snow i will see for the rest of the month... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 12 minutes ago, nycwinter said: saw a few flurries this morning probably only snow i will see for the rest of the month... We are only at the 8th. A lot can happen, change between now and the end of the month. I will say you will see snow before Jan 31. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 Not a single post about the upcoming pattern in over 3 hours. EPS looks good starting around day 8 and only getting better. Negative EPO positive PNA showing up later in the Run. I guess if a South East Ridge was going to pop in the long range or the mjo was going into the warm phases they'll be post after post here.every other sub-forum is buzzing with optimism except here. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 33 minutes ago, binbisso said: Not a single post about the upcoming pattern in over 3 hours. EPS looks good starting around day 8 and only getting better. Negative EPO positive PNA showing up later in the Run. I guess if a South East Ridge was going to pop in the long range or the mjo was going into the warm phases they'll be post after post here.every other sub-forum is buzzing with optimism except here. Gee maybe people have to work 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 Just now, Brian5671 said: Gee maybe people have to work Was yesterday a holiday then? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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