January 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[Rjay]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

New Research: AMO, PDO Appear not to Exist...

The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) do not appear to exist, according to a team of meteorologists who believe this has implications for both the validity of previous studies attributing past trends to these hypothetical natural oscillations and for the prospects of decade-scale climate predictability.

Using both observational data and climate model simulations, the researchers showed that there was no consistent evidence for decadal or longer-term internal oscillatory signals that could be differentiated from climatic noise—random year to year variation. The only verifiable oscillation is the well-known El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

"A distinct—40 to 50 year timescale—spectral peak that appears in global surface temperature observations appears to reflect the response of the climate system to a combination of anthropogenic and natural forcing rather than any intrinsic internal oscillation," the researchers report today (Jan. 3) in Nature Communications.

https://phys.org/news/2020-01-atlantic-pacific-oscillations-lost-noise.html

The paper can be found at:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-13823-w

 

This is actually hilarious if true.  

[snowman19]

8 minutes ago, Rjay said:

 

This is actually hilarious if true.  

Rendering the PDO and AMO meaningless, so only ENSO counts? Lol Wow, that is earth shattering if true and also proves a completely changed climate

[FPizz]

53 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

 

Thanks, Chris. In addition to that warm pool to which you describe, another issue, IMO, was the transport of momentum generally south of the equator w/ that intraseasonal MJO passage last February. Note the z850 zonal wind anomalies; most of which were directed south of the equator [circa 5-S latitude], so we didn't benefit as much in the northern hemisphere.

 

 

Indeed - My total snowfall after February 15th last winter was 6.9", while the entire Dec 1-Feb 14th period featured 2.8". Certainly an improvement - though not to a very favorable regime - but better than nothing. It will be interesting to see how the rest of this season evolves.

Being inland a bit helped, as that late season surge got me to just 2" below average.  

[jm1220]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

We got lucky in March when the strong -EPO disrupted the unfavorable pattern. But there was enough of a lingering influence so the best snows were NYC-LI North Shore, and CT. I only got about 4” here on the South Shore last March.
 

 

March was a good month up here, about 10-12” between three events. At times there was 4-5” on the ground here and almost zilch in Long Beach. 

[Juliancolton]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Rendering the PDO and AMO meaningless, so only ENSO counts? Lol Wow, that is earth shattering if true and also proves a completely changed climate

But they've served us so well with seasonal outlooks

/s

[SnoSki14]

Looks more probable that we see a cutter driven muddied torch post 1/9.

This means generally rainy, cloudy weather with temps in the 50s to low 60s and very warm mins. Not great if you were hoping for dry/mild weather like 01/02 or 11/12.

For the coldest period climo wise these are easily +10 to +20 AN numbers but not quite record breaking. 

[blizzard24]

every one thinks it will be that warm and last that long well think again . dont count on that . i wouldnt be surprise if got snow during the warm up that model show .

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 41degs., or 8 degs. AN.[used 43/56 for today].    At this rate the last 20 days of January will need to be -4.5 to get us back to Normal.    Some 60's are more likely than seeing any snow for the next 15 days. 

CFS shows no Snow on the ground here till Jan. 25.      The CFS is a Notorious Malcreant that loves to show a White Christmas but never says which year it is referring to.

 

49* at 6am.  48*(all night)    Back to 48* and 1/4mi. Fog by 7am.     50* since Noon *(2pm now)-same Fog.     Down to 44* by 10pm.

 

[Rtd208]

Picked up 0.10" of rain for the day yesterday and 0.14" of rain so far today. 

Storm total so far 0.24"

Current temp 46

[gravitylover]

.04" yesterday and nothing today,  44°. Not much of a storm... It is super thick fog with a few random raindrops falling now though so everything is soggy. 

[the_other_guy]

43F Dense Fog

Less than 1/4 to 1/2 mile  depending on where you are on the ridge lines 

[bluewave]

Unusually warm minimums across the whole area since December 23rd. White Plains just experienced the 3 warmest minimum on record12-23 to 01-03. NYC was the 2nd warmest over the same period. While these wet and cloudy warm ups limit the high temperature potential, the minimum temperatures have trouble falling with the clouds and higher dewpoints.
 

Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER COUNTY AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Lowest Min Temperature Dec 23 to Jan 3	Missing Count
1	2016-01-03	28	0
2	2007-01-03	27	0
-	2004-01-03	27	0
-	1983-01-03	27	0
3	2019-01-03	26	0
-	2006-01-03	26	0

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Lowest Min Temperature Dec 23 to Jan 3	Missing Count
1	2007-01-03	33	0
2	2020-01-03	32	0
-	2019-01-03	32	0
-	2016-01-03	32	0
-	2006-01-03	32	0
-	1983-01-03	32	0

[Brian5671]

6 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Looks more probable that we see a cutter driven muddied torch post 1/9.

This means generally rainy, cloudy weather with temps in the 50s to low 60s and very warm mins. Not great if you were hoping for dry/mild weather like 01/02 or 11/12.

For the coldest period climo wise these are easily +10 to +20 AN numbers but not quite record breaking. 

sounds like a cooler version of December 2015....

[MJO812]

Maybe a bit of snow during the week?

Models are trending more progressive 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

January 2017 blizzard showed up in my Facebook memories today. Ugh

Yep 2 years ago today

[donsutherland1]

There remains broad agreement among the ECMWF, GEFS, and bias-corrected GEFS that the MJO will be progressing to Phase 4 at an amplitude in excess of +1.500. Afterward, it should progress into Phase 5. The result will be a pattern that favors ridging in the means from January 10-17 and perhaps somewhat longer.

Afterward, if past cases of such high amplitude MJO passages through Phase 4 during the January 5-20 period are representative, it should move toward and likely into Phases 7 and 8, if only for a short time.

In a majority of cases, the 500 mb pattern changes dramatically to one that favors a ridge in the West and trough in the East. However, in a not insignificant cluster of cases, the pattern adjusts somewhat, but ridging continues to predominate in the East.

15-day Mean 500 mb Anomalies for the period beginning 10 days after the MJO Peaks in Phase 4 at an amplitude of +1.500 or above during the January 5-20 period:

One teleconnection appears to offer insight into how the pattern will evolve. All of the cases that went into the cluster that saw ridging persist in the East had a PNA that remained persistently and predominantly negative.

[weatherpruf]

8 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

January 2017 blizzard showed up in my Facebook memories today. Ugh

Don't even remember it....where was it ? ( I t certainly wasn't IMBY )

[weatherpruf]

5 hours ago, blizzard24 said:

every one thinks it will be that warm and last that long well think again . dont count on that . i wouldnt be surprise if got snow during the warm up that model show .

It's never really a surprise to see snow in Jan, even in an unfavorable season. Saw it in '12. 

[qg_omega]

5 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Don't even remember it....where was it ? ( I t certainly wasn't IMBY )

It was the bomb cyclone big winds and over a foot of snow

[bluewave]

9 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Don't even remember it....where was it ? ( I t certainly wasn't IMBY )

1-4-18 was the lowest MSLP blizzard on record to move over the 40/70 benchmark at 950 mb. The follow up record snows in March and early April when ISP went 30”+ marked the end of the benchmark storm track through today. Almost like a grand finale of a fireworks show. Everyone wants to know when the cutter and hugger storms tracks will shift back to the benchmark.

https://www.weather.gov/okx/Blizzard_Jan42018

[Brasiluvsnow]

45 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Maybe a bit of snow during the week?

Models are trending more progressive 

88 sorry to say that I dont believe much of anything that the models show especially when it is more the 24 or 48 hours out. I hope they are correct THIS TIME but I am not buying in until i see it happen 

[MJO812]

47 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

88 sorry to say that I dont believe much of anything that the models show especially when it is more the 24 or 48 hours out. I hope they are correct THIS TIME but I am not buying in until i see it happen 

Agree especially what's happening this winter. 

[bluewave]

Models continuing with one of the strongest MJO phase 4-5 events on record for January. This could keep a warm SE ridge pattern in place through the 20th . More models getting over to phase 6 near the end of the runs which is still a warm phase for us. We are still experiencing the lagged warmth from the late December phase 6 passage.

 

[MJO812]

Nam past 84 hour would be a nice event even down to the coast 

[donsutherland1]

19 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Models continuing with one of the strongest MJO phase 4-5 events on record for January. This could keep a warm SE ridge pattern in place through the 20th or 24th. More models getting over to phase 6 near the end of the runs which is still a warm phase for us. We are still experiencing the lagged warmth from the late December phase 6 passage.

 

The GEFS has continued to shift toward a higher amplitude passage through the Maritime Continent. I suspect that's part of the reason the 6z GEFS showed a fleeting flattening of the ridge and then its rebound in the extended range.

[SnoSki14]

Ensembles are quite wet, the active Pacific jet will keep feeding us moisture.

It's like a tropical pattern in January.

[weatherpruf]

6 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Ensembles are quite wet, the active Pacific jet will keep feeding us moisture.

It's like a tropical pattern in January.

Ugh. Backyard is a swamp as it is.

[snowman19]

35 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Models continuing with one of the strongest MJO phase 4-5 events on record for January. This could keep a warm SE ridge pattern in place through the 20th or 24th. More models getting over to phase 6 near the end of the runs which is still a warm phase for us. We are still experiencing the lagged warmth from the late December phase 6 passage.

 

It’s becoming clear that any large scale long wave pattern change is going to have to wait until early-mid February

[bluewave]

18 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The GEFS has continued to shift toward a higher amplitude passage through the Maritime Continent. I suspect that's part of the reason the 6z GEFS showed a fleeting flattening of the ridge and then its rebound in the extended range.

Yeah, I saw that. This could be one of our warmest January 10th to 20th periods on record.

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Jan 10 to Jan 20	Missing Count
1	1932-01-20	46.6	0
2	1995-01-20	44.3	0
3	1937-01-20	41.7	0
4	2006-01-20	41.6	0
5	1933-01-20	41.4	0

[EastonSN+]

Looking at the CFS weeklies and extrapolating, the last 2 weeks look good but the trough in the east already looks to be migrating to the west again. I would hate to think that we are only looking at a 2 week window of opportunity before it goes warm again. May be one of those winters.