January 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[snowman19]

5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Holy crap is the EPS torchy after Jan 10. Just keeps cycling the eastern ridge.

That'll guarantee some 60+ temps popping up around what should be the coldest time of the year. If there's a large cutter to our west it could easily cause temps to spike even higher. 

Mind you we may already be at +5/6 before the real torch even begins.

Can you say top 3 warmest January's. 

The EPS is a ridiculously warm pattern starting after 1/10. Overdone? Maybe, but even if overdone wow

[SnoSki14]

6 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

It was bound to happen eventually. We need major improvements in the PAC and or a strat warming event to salvage the rest of the winter. 

The bigger the + departure I think the more likely the band will snap the other way to balance things out. 

That and the -SOI December should lead to much colder February unless it's just a full torch like 01/02 & 11/12. 

And I don't think it will be, this is gonna be a much wetter winter plus both those winters featured CONUS wide torches whereas this one will have a clear west cold/east warmth split for Jan plus a cold source region in Canada so an 06/07 could be a possibility.

[LibertyBell]

8 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The EPS is a ridiculously warm pattern starting after 1/10. Overdone? Maybe, but even if overdone wow

we've lately seen stagnant patterns develop across both oceans, the ridiculously resilient pacific ridge has become the ridiculously resilient atlantic ridge!

[snowman19]

46 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

The bigger the + departure I think the more likely the band will snap the other way to balance things out. 

That and the -SOI December should lead to much colder February unless it's just a full torch like 01/02 & 11/12. 

And I don't think it will be, this is gonna be a much wetter winter plus both those winters featured CONUS wide torches whereas this one will have a clear west cold/east warmth split for Jan plus a cold source region in Canada so an 06/07 could be a possibility.

One of the years mentioned that “snapped back” in February and March was 1993, however, just keep in mind that back then you didn’t have SSTs of 90+ degrees over a large area north of Australia with heavy convection firing over it like we do now. It seems to be a positive feedback loop developing with a standing wave in that region

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

One of the years mentioned that “snapped back” in February and March was 1993, however, just keep in mind that back then you didn’t have SSTs of 90+ degrees over a large area north of Australia with heavy convection firing over it like we do now. It seems to be a positive feedback loop developing with a standing wave in that region

Yes the climate was very different back then, most of Australia wasn't burning.

 

[the_other_guy]

I think you get a salvage or two or three storms...But a snapback would not fit the pattern of the 2010s.

This (as I said in late Dec) could be a record warm January. We have never seen anything quite like the duration and intensity of this warmth in January. Where plus 5 is your baseline and the warm days could jump from there.

This January moves into Dec 2015 territory (unprecedented) is my thinking.

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

I think you get a salvage or two or three storms...But a snapback would not fit the pattern of the 2010s.

This (as I said in late Dec) could be a record warm January. We have never seen anything quite like the duration and intensity of this warmth in January. Where plus 5 is your baseline and the warm days could jump from there.

This January moves into Dec 2015 territory (unprecedented) is my thinking.

It's unusual in that usually December is the mildest month of the winter.  Especially in an el nino.  Could it actually be January this time?

Sounds a bit like 1989-90 minus the extreme cold in December.

 

[the_other_guy]

Is it a true El nino? Or are we just mimicking that with a warmed earth and a bad pattern?

 

I think in the not to distant future, this is what our winter look like

[EastonSN+]

I don't remember the year or years, but in the late 80s early 90s I remember it being so warm in January we were wearing short sleeves to school a few days.  

[Brian5671]

Hideous for cold/snow lovers.    Only hope is some of the cold in Canada bleeds south and we can get a well timed system.  Otherwise, close the shades for a month and maybe more.  

[LibertyBell]

8 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I don't remember the year or years, but in the late 80s early 90s I remember it being so warm in January we were wearing short sleeves to school a few days.  

1989-90! and we were wearing shorts and t-shirts from January thru March!

[bluewave]

Funny how the day 11-15 forecasts got better as the pattern warmed up. The EPS has pulled into the lead since early December. It could be that the GEFS cold bias really stands out when we actually have a warmer than normal pattern.

 

[gravitylover]

48 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

I think you get a salvage or two or three storms...But a snapback would not fit the pattern of the 2010s.

This (as I said in late Dec) could be a record warm January. We have never seen anything quite like the duration and intensity of this warmth in January. Where plus 5 is your baseline and the warm days could jump from there.

This January moves into Dec 2015 territory (unprecedented) is my thinking.

I could definitely see a big storm or two, it's all about the timing, that could get most of the area close to normal before that window shuts in late March but I also don't think the rubber band is going to snap like that either. Quickie little cold shots making people remember that it is actually winter will stick out in their minds and make it seem different than the numbers will prove out.

If I don't have to worry about heating oil bills for a few weeks I'm good with it  Dec 15 was great, I don't think we even used 30 gallons that month so about a third of normal.

[LibertyBell]

9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Funny how the day 11-15 forecasts got better as the pattern warmed up. The EPS has pulled into the lead since early December. It could be that the GEFS cold bias really stands out when we actually have a warmer than normal pattern.

 

it seems that warmer weather is much easier to forecast than colder weather in general (particularly when it comes to cold+snowy weather.)

 

[Brian5671]

29 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

it seems that warmer weather is much easier to forecast than colder weather in general (particularly when it comes to cold+snowy weather.)

 

Agreed-models always seen to nail the warmth--even in cold periods, it seems the cold is on the doorstep before the models catch on....

[PB-99]

Yes we are going to get warm again , so when we total it all up we will have a erased a full month of winter, Dec 20 - Jan 20. 

And losing that portion of prime time winter stings.

But winter is not dead.

The EPS and GEFS start to flatten the ridge out in the L/R and CFS wants to take the MJO into p8 between day 15 - 20.

The result would be that winter in some form would return at the back end of the month. 

If the CFS is right winter will return as that wants to force in 7/8/1.

 

 

[PB-99]

I think even the EPS Chi 200 show the MJO working into p8.

 

Careful with RIMM plots they are not the best to use. 

 

I would expect this warm period to continue towards later in the month , but just like the Nov 1 - Dec 20 cold ended , so too will the warmth. 

[Brian5671]

What I hope we don't see is a continued push back into 4-5-6 like we saw last year.  That Australian hot water doesn't bode well IMO as it doesn't appear to be going anywhere.

[PB-99]

Just now, Brian5671 said:

What I hope we don't see is a continued push back into 4-5-6 like we saw last year.  That Australian hot water doesn't bode well IMO as it doesn't appear to be going anywhere.

 

Either is the 30c water out near 180 

[PB-99]

The longer you force over one spot the higher the chance you upwell them. 

The guidance in the CFS and EPS rotate the MJO out towards 7 by day 10 to 15. 

 

 

 

 

[Allsnow]

36 minutes ago, bluewave said:

If the new EPS is correct about the MJO continuing into at least phase 6, then the warmth will extend well into late January. It would probably take until early February to reach the colder phases if the MJO doesn’t weaken first.

It will probably get worst before it gets better. With no strat help we will be at the mercy of the mjo. It doesn’t look like this should linger in p5 (def a worry with the warm waters there) as the rmm plots have been correcting closer to the colder phases. Until then all we can do is enjoy the warmth coming. 
 

hopefully the roundy plots are correct with this mjo getting into p7-p8 by the 20th. If not winter weather/cold will be in big trouble for February. 

[bluewave]

18 minutes ago, PB-99 said:

I think even the EPS Chi 200 show the MJO working into p8.

 

Careful with RIMM plots they are not the best to use. 

 

I would expect this warm period to continue towards later in the month , but just like the Nov 1 - Dec 20 cold ended , so too will the warmth. 

Both the VP anomalies and the RMM charts become less reliable after about 10 days. But the MJO usually progresses into phase 6 following such a strong phase 4-5. Nearly all the January cases with amplified phase 4-5 phases continued the warmth into phase 6. 

[PB-99]

On 1/3/2020 at 10:12 AM, Allsnow said:

It will probably get worst before it gets better. With not strat help we will be at the mercy of the mjo. It doesn’t look like this should linger in p5 (def a worry with the warm waters there) as the rmm plots have been correcting closer to the colder phases. Until then all we can do is enjoy the warmth coming. 
 

hopefully the roundy plots are correct with this mjo getting into p7-p8 by the 20th. If not winter weather/cold will be in big trouble for February. 

 

I punted thru midJan , but can see how the post Jan 20 is right. 

The post 20th period could still have a bit of a lag but the cold is very close by so maybe it comes quick.

 

I am just more focused on Feb 

[PB-99]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Both the VP anomalies and the RMM charts become less reliable after about 10 days. But the MJO usually progresses into phase 6 following such a strong phase 4-5. Nearly all the January cases with amplified phase 4-5 phases continued the warmth into phase 6. 

 

And probably progresses thru 7 and 8 as well.

 

Those RIMM plots were adamant about looping in p6 12 days ago and instead came out into 7 and 8.

 

I have no gripe with the MJO going into 5 and 6. I do have an issue with those who think it just stays there, I believe it progresses well  by day 20 

[uncle W]

the mjo spaghetti forecast has members going to the circle of life but back around to warm phases...we need smiling phases...

 

[donsutherland1]

55 minutes ago, PB-99 said:

 

I punted Jan , but can see how the post Jan 20 crowd could be right and it return quicker.

The post 20th period could still have a bit of a lag but the cold is very close by so maybe it comes quick.

 

I am just more focused on Feb into March anyway.

I'm sorry to learn that Snow88's attempt to block your punt failed. 

On a more serious note, there continue to be some indications of a pattern evolution that would allow for the last week of the month to wind up colder than normal (probably nothing exceptional, though). Such cold likely won't preclude January from winding up much warmer than normal across the region. 

Still, that's way out and a lot can change.

[PB-99]

41 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

I'm sorry to learn that Snow88's attempt to block your punt failed. 

On a more serious note, there continue to be some indications of a pattern evolution that would allow for the last week of the month to wind up colder than normal (probably nothing exceptional, though). Such cold likely won't preclude January from winding up much warmer than normal across the region. 

Still, that's way out and a lot can change.

 

Even when I look at the EPS and GEFS stringing LP out through the N/E  it just looks like  L/R lake cutters that drags a C/F through the area for a few days.

Can`t have the negative in the SW unless the troughs that come out are all positively tilted and then can run the baroclinic zone.

 

Even then I never like that look without blocking, the flow tends to ride further N as we get closer. 

 

[uncle W]

I hope this extremely positive ao changes the second half of January...January 2000 and 2005 had a very positive ao the first half of January...2005 being the most positive of the two...similar to this year...both years saw the ao change to negative the second half and the second half was much colder and snowier...there are years when the ao stayed mostly positive but the week or two it was closer to or negative it snowed here...

[EastonSN+]

3 minutes ago, uncle W said:

I hope this extremely positive ao changes the second half of January...January 2000 and 2005 had a very positive ao the first half of January...2005 being the most positive of the two...similar to this year...both years saw the ao change to negative the second half and the second half was much colder and snowier...there are years when the ao stayed mostly positive but the week or two it was closer to or negative it snowed here...

Not negative AO but colder.

[bluewave]

It’s been tough to bet against the SE ridge over the last year. Even when we had intervals of cold, the storm tracks were still cutters and huggers. It may be the warmest SST’s lining up west of the date line creating a a very La Niña-like pattern. That WPAC warm pool also leads to stronger MJO phase 4-7 episodes.