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January 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
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1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

Like I’ve been saying I’m not really interested in any threats while the Pacific jet, MJO, NAO etc are this horrendous. Maybe a minor event can sneak in there but the 6-8” snow maps from the Euro are almost definitely wrong. In the meantime it’ll continue to be a NNE and upper Midwest winter. Very Nina-like. 

It’s been a very poor NNE winter so far, best snows have been along i90 due to one storm and then south east Maine.  Mountains in NNE are well below normal in snowfall

B93B8CA4-7AEC-4298-8E93-0187DEDB4B48.png

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9 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

It’s been a very poor NNE winter so far, best snows have been along i90 due to one storm and then south east Maine.  Mountains in NNE are well below normal in snowfall

B93B8CA4-7AEC-4298-8E93-0187DEDB4B48.png

Yeah my BIL is in SE ME, always complaining about the snow, like clockwork. Yet he hates NJ and was glad to move. Interesting headline today online about NJ being the state most people leave, and the "harsh winters" was cited as one possible reason ( along with the obvious others, like taxes )....so even without snow, most people think it is too cold here.

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52 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

At this point my mentality is if it's not going to snow, may as well be warm, I don't mind the mild weather. The worst patterns to me are when it's cold but then storms track to the west and we warm and up and get rain.

Well you're definitely getting some warm(ish) and rain the next two days.  We might see some ridging this winter that allows for a warm and dry scenario.  I think some model posts showed it in this thread.

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5 hours ago, Isotherm said:

 

 

I am uncertain whether I ever recall seeing such an expansive (or any) area of 32C coverage in that part of the world. These are 90 degree F water temperatures to the north of Australia. For such an anomaly in the deep tropics, it yields a significant impact on the energy budget as you know, and concordantly, it isn't surprising to see the modeled high amplitude in phases 4/5 of the MJO. This is akin to throwing gasoline on the proverbial fire. Ambient SST's of 32C/90F are very impressive. This will further serve to enhance the MJO in its unfavorable [from E US perspective] octants.

 

cdas-sflux_sst_global_1.png

 

Good post by @bluewave regarding the warm waters by Australia. I tend to think it might want to linger in P5 because the mjo is convection and loves warm waters. One of the reasons why we spent most of December in P2 was the warm waters creating a standing wave. 
 

 

I believe what happens with this mjo wave will hold the fate for what happens at the end of January into February. The roundy plots and vp maps  have this entering p7 by the 20th. 
1F9F8D64-2C99-4A63-AD0C-D11CDD2C102C.thumb.png.7d91f4149d6228212fc19efd066cd276.png

7C7D4010-C7BB-41D6-9065-50D0B35EE8B9.thumb.png.319710905f0d7d173acb47e0d2d69fb9.png

@tombo82685 stated to me that the jma keeps this in p5 to the start of January and the CFS gets it into p8. Definitely the reason for their differences regarding the rest of this winter. 

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25 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

the GFS has a cold bias in the LR and you're looking at an OP model past day 10....

True but neither is the warmth locked in through Jan. IMO. Though it sounds like the MJO forecast needs to get better to have more confidence in the cold. Don has good write ups on that.

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5 hours ago, Isotherm said:

 

 

I am uncertain whether I ever recall seeing such an expansive (or any) area of 32C coverage in that part of the world. These are 90 degree F water temperatures to the north of Australia. For such an anomaly in the deep tropics, it yields a significant impact on the energy budget as you know, and concordantly, it isn't surprising to see the modeled high amplitude in phases 4/5 of the MJO. This is akin to throwing gasoline on the proverbial fire. Ambient SST's of 32C/90F are very impressive. This will further serve to enhance the MJO in its unfavorable [from E US perspective] octants.

 

cdas-sflux_sst_global_1.png

 

Hobbyist question here:  When you say that this pool of high-octane fuel will "enhance" the MJO in its unfavorable phases, do you mean to say that it will: (1) become more amplified as it passes through those phases; (2) spend a greater-than-usual time in those phases; or (3) both?

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2 hours ago, Eduardo said:

Hobbyist question here:  When you say that this pool of high-octane fuel will "enhance" the MJO in its unfavorable phases, do you mean to say that it will: (1) become more amplified as it passes through those phases; (2) spend a greater-than-usual time in those phases; or (3) both?

Maybe both. The warm water there will support more convection there, which will amplify the MJO and keep it in a lousy phase for us. As someone else said it’s funny how Australia’s heat wave can hurt our winter here. 

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Under partly sunny skies, readings across the region topped out in the upper 40s and lower 50s.

The first week of the month remains on track to average 5° or more above normal across much of the region. A short-duration cold shot is possible late in the first week of January into part of the second week. This cold shot could provide a window of opportunity for at least some snowfall in the region and especially across central/upstate New York and New England.

Based on the forecast strongly positive AO, the probability of a significant (6" or greater snowstorm) for the major cities of the Middle Atlantic region during the first 10 days of January is low. Since 1950, the biggest snowfall for that region when the AO was +2.000 or above during the January 1-15 period occurred during January 14-15, 1954 when Philadelphia received 3.0" snow and New York City picked up 2.0". Boston has had numerous 6" or greater snowstorms during such cases, including one 10" or greater snowstorm. Therefore, the risk of significant snow would likely be greatest over New England assuming this relationship holds (no significant offsetting variables). Such a scenario does not preclude the possibility of a light snow event across parts of the region during this timeframe, particularly during the January 5-9 period.

Afterward, a tendency for ridging with warmer than normal temperatures prevailing will very likely develop during the latter part of the second week of the month and persist through at least mid-month.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.4°C for the week centered around December 25. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.27°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.48°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm to weak El Niño conditions.

The SOI was -17.42 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +3.596.

No significant stratospheric warming event appears likely through January 11, but a temporary period of warming will very likely develop in the upper stratosphere and approach or reach 5 mb toward the end of the first week of January. Wave 2 activity will remain relatively muted following the first week of the month. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS.

On January 1, the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 0.564 (RMM). The December 31-adjusted amplitude was 0.748.

Since 1974, there were five cases when the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the December 20-31 period, as has been the case this year. The temperature anomalies were closely tied to how much time the MJO spent in Phase 8 during the January 1-15 timeframe. The mean temperature for January 1-15 for cases with more than 5 such days was 29.0° in New York City. The mean temperature for those with 5 or fewer such days was 36.1°. The overall 1981-2019 mean temperature for January 1-15 is 33.8°. January 2019 will very likely fall into the latter, warmer subset.

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5 hours ago, Will - Rutgers said:

Well you're definitely getting some warm(ish) and rain the next two days.  We might see some ridging this winter that allows for a warm and dry scenario.  I think some model posts showed it in this thread.

I don't see prolonged warm/dry like 01/02 with this very active Pacific jet. 

I think we're going to see some weird anomalies next few months though regarding precip/temps.

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The next 8 days are averaging 43degs., or 10degs. AN.

46* here at 6am.   45* at 6:30am.      44* at 8am.      47* by Noon.      48* for most of the afternoon/evening.

Models are loaded with 50-Degree Days.     A trace of snow would be an accident---an atmospheric miscue.

Meanwhile the P.V. sits like an uninvolved witness to a robbery or a road accident.      The only good thing---it is on our side of the N.P.    When SW resumes and loosens up the P.V., we will save two weeks waiting time  before the benefits are felt here.

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20 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

The next 8 days are averaging 43degs., or 10degs. AN.

46* here at 6am.

Models are loaded with 50-Degree Days.     A trace of snow would be an accident.

Holy crap is the EPS torchy after Jan 10. Just keeps cycling the eastern ridge.

That'll guarantee some 60+ temps popping up around what should be the coldest time of the year. If there's a large cutter to our west it could easily cause temps to spike even higher. 

Mind you we may already be at +5/6 before the real torch even begins.

Can you say top 3 warmest January's. 

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4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Holy crap is the EPS torchy after Jan 10. Just keeps cycling the eastern ridge.

That'll guarantee some 60+ temps popping up around what should be the coldest time of the year. If there's a large cutter to our west it could easily cause temps to spike even higher. 

Mind you we may already be at +5/6 before the real torch even begins.

Can you say top 3 warmest January's. 

It was bound to happen eventually. We need major improvements in the PAC and or a strat warming event to salvage the rest of the winter. 

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