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New Year Storm Thread 12/29-01/01


dryslot
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19 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Thoughts for here Scott? We don’t see to be in a great position for the cold drain, as it’s more west of here 

I feel like you’ll get sleet too. You’ll probably get some 34F sleet for awhile Monday. 
 

lots of convection modeled too with this down south. I don’t expect the repeat we had two weeks ago, but we’ll need to watch how it unfolds. 

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52 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Most of the meaningful precip is snow here with a brief period of IP at the end of part 1 and beginning of part 2 as the midlevels try to cool back down. 1.25-1.50" QPF will result in quite a mess. One little bump NE with warmer H8 air and we're talking half sleet and half snow. I think that's the route I'm leaning with a period of snow, solid pelting for awhile, and then we'll end as snow as the secondary begins to pick up.

Thanks Brian.  Always curious as to your thoughts of sensible weather up here.  Perhaps new GFS is slightly colder?   Maybe I can be far enough north not to ping?  Still near 36 hours away and more fine tuning needed.  One way or another should be a plowable snow even with some pinging at times.  Time to start catching up to the SNE  snowfall totals.

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2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

He is so wish casting this morning all over social media.  Looks like he will be dumbfounded once again

I’m making a forecast on what I think will happen. I do not see sleet being an issue SW of ORH. There could be some , but for CT this is big zr to me. Even for you . Your angry responses on twitter are funny 

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On 12/27/2019 at 6:31 AM, Ginx snewx said:

Euro based guess at this point. Brian 4 to 8 Gene to Jeffafafa 8 to 12 then Hunchie Ray 3 to 6 Hippy to ORH 2 to 4 with sleet ice snow. Jerry  Boston South of Pike to 84 1 to 3, a period of snow sleet ice south of that maybe an inch with NCT Mass border 2 with maybe .2 ice? Still early. Lots of qpf so if that 7h collapses like the Euro has the potential from the SVT CVT area over to Brian, Gene to Jeffafafa is for high end foot plus amounts. 

No change, more sleet than snow in the Hippy Hunchie Ray Pickles area but same outcome, cept Hippy area gets the Freezing rain jackpot up to .5 accretion. More sleet than ice NCT but still thinking .2 there. 

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’m making a forecast on what I think will happen. I do not see sleet being an issue SW of ORH. There could be some , but for CT this is big zr to me. Even for you . Your angry responses on twitter are funny 

You need to stop with your angry stuff. You are embarrassing yourself in a public arena. 

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It looks like elevation will be key for areas that get ice.  Pretty steep low level lapse rates on the model soundings.  Near freezing temps. in low elevation areas will probably limit accretion.  But up 1000ft+ with surface temps. in the upper 20s will start to become a problem.  Actually for big problems you'd probably want to be up above 1500 or 2000ft at least in SNE.

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23 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Pipes are the big issue but that can be avoided.   If someone has $7000 of food in a freezer please invite me  over

We had a 27kw gen in our large home in VA to power the Airco.  We put it in after the 2012 Derecho from Hell left us without power for 5 days in 100+ temperatures and ruined 3 refrigerators full of food. It was a miserable experience, but at least we could go to work and have light and most important - Airco. Up here on the island we just installed a 14K Kohler for a much smaller place. The unit was $4k, the installation was about $5K, which included delivery on a front end loader from the dock, gravel bed and tying the genny into the propane tank. work was just finished last Saturday. I am part of the island's wellness/aging in place team and see the value as a cranky retired sort of being able to shelter in place. Losing some food was small, but very irritating issue. The bigger issue for us, especially in the last power outage during the October Noreaster ,was we only have about 9 hours a day of usable sunlight a day during that time of year. Sitting in 15 hours of darkness drove us crazy, hence the generator. Understand the nice hotel gig, but I think it probably works better on the mainland.  

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11 minutes ago, SnowBrosForever said:

We had a 27kw gen in our large home in VA to power the Airco.  We put it in after the 2012 Derecho from Hell left us without power for 5 days in 100+ temperatures and ruined 3 refrigerators full of food. It was a miserable experience, but at least we could go to work and have light and most important - Airco. Up here on the island we just installed a 14K Kohler for a much smaller place. The unit was $4k, the installation was about $5K, which included delivery on a front end loader from the dock, gravel bed and tying the genny into the propane tank. work was just finished last Saturday. I am part of the island's wellness/aging in place team and see the value as a cranky retired sort of being able to shelter in place. Losing some food was small, but very irritating issue. The bigger issue for us, especially in the last power outage during the October Noreaster ,was we only have about 9 hours a day of usable sunlight a day during that time of year. Sitting in 15 hours of darkness drove us crazy, hence the generator. Understand the nice hotel gig, but I think it probably works better on the mainland.  

Cost wise its probably not the most efficient way to do it but its worth the convenience to me. I'm ready to roll if my power gets knocked out this next storm.

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2 hours ago, jbenedet said:

You might be right, but I’ll say since living in coastal NH, the surface CAD is really robust, but at the same time 850 -900 warmth commonly makes its way up to where warm fronts go to die —“Lake Winne Region”. I think this is one of those setups where the surface front ends up over SE MA—*much* further southeast— than at 850.

Agree.

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