Typhoon Tip Posted December 27, 2019 Share Posted December 27, 2019 Not intending this as a testament to the NAM's correctness in handling matters but ...that's pretty impressive how it parks that H NNE of Maine and for 24 to 30 hours, then moves it 0 while waves of QPF hose hammer at it from the OV right over over us. If you want to run an ice storm ...that's really how you get it done. Suppose for a second it's closer to reality - some may even see more sleet and snow...they may. But, where that goes ZR you could be talking light to moderate steady falls at 29 to 31 F, with a constant feed of lower DP air on an endless supply of ageo jet to make sure you don't survive - Jesusyikes... I'm hoping here along Rt poopie that if this cold high scenario ( ala Euro even ) is right, we are deep enough in it to bee-bee accumulate 2.5" rather than accreting 1" of power sag Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 27, 2019 Share Posted December 27, 2019 GFS tries to go back warm... No posts - God I love the sweep it under the rug culture. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 27, 2019 Share Posted December 27, 2019 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: GFS tries to go back warm... No posts - God I love the sweep it under the rug culture. Cuz there is negligible difference from 12 Z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 27, 2019 Share Posted December 27, 2019 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: GFS tries to go back warm... No posts - God I love the sweep it under the rug culture. I don't think the GFS changed much, still the warmer solution as it normally is it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 27, 2019 Share Posted December 27, 2019 8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: GFS tries to go back warm... No posts - God I love the sweep it under the rug culture. Beers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 27, 2019 Share Posted December 27, 2019 13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Not intending this as a testament to the NAM's correctness in handling matters but ...that's pretty impressive how it parks that H NNE of Maine and for 24 to 30 hours, then moves it 0 while waves of QPF hose hammer at it from the OV right over over us. If you want to run an ice storm ...that's really how you get it done. Suppose for a second it's closer to reality - some may even see more sleet and snow...they may. But, where that goes ZR you could be talking light to moderate steady falls at 29 to 31 F, with a constant feed of lower DP air on an endless supply of ageo jet to make sure you don't survive - Jesusyikes... I'm hoping here along Rt poopie that if this cold high scenario ( ala Euro even ) is right, we are deep enough in it to bee-bee accumulate 2.5" rather than accreting 1" of power sag We want a massive boob sag 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2019 Share Posted December 27, 2019 I didn’t see a huge difference at 18z on the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 27, 2019 Share Posted December 27, 2019 meh... tick warmer all fields...but yeah, it's noise. I like pushin the buttons and testing the sensitivities - I'm disappointed there wasn't more hate thrown my way for saying that actually... You guys are letting me down 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 27, 2019 Share Posted December 27, 2019 11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: We want a massive boob sag Join Pickles at a training session. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 27, 2019 Author Share Posted December 27, 2019 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: meh... tick warmer all fields...but yeah, it's noise. I like pushin the buttons and testing the sensitivities - I'm disappointed there wasn't more hate thrown my way for saying that actually... You guys are letting me down How about a couple steamers......... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 27, 2019 Share Posted December 27, 2019 27 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: meh... tick warmer all fields...but yeah, it's noise. I like pushin the buttons and testing the sensitivities - I'm disappointed there wasn't more hate thrown my way for saying that actually... You guys are letting me down Dr Dews does it better. But we like you more 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 well the 18Z EURO might a tick warmer Tip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 2 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said: He did yesterday at 3AM This just a threat assessment...first call tonight, final Sunday night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 2 hours ago, moneypitmike said: This would be nice. Lots of esthetic beauty with no big issue with power, etc. At least if there are power interuptions, there's no real cold once it pulls out. Bogus. Let's get in those deep purples until we have nurples cuz we pinch ourselves so bad making sure we're alive during such an extraordinary meteorological event. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sketcher709 Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 2 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I don’t mind it as much anymore and the more branches come down on the property, the better...free trimming/branch removal. Oh My, clearly someone who has never dealt with the utter catastrophe of a bad ice storm. On '08 we lost many of our most mature ornamental trees, our beautiful oak and maples were topped, we lost two beautiful old Mulberry and spent a week chainsawing, our beautiful 3 acre property was destroyed. We lost our privacy from the nosy neighbor across the street. Over the last 11 years, some of the trees that we did not lose have recovered. Some show signs of starting to succumb to the insect and disease damage where the limbs were torn off. Our beautiful 100' plus, rare American elm took quite a beating. Not the natural pruning you want. Not to mention, some of that "pruning" speared one of the limbs from a huge hemlock right through our roof, snapping two rafters in our antique home. We had no power for over 7 days. It was a terrible winter, the character of our property was changed at least for our lifetime. I'd sat the "pruning" you speak of could be compared to having a small twister barrel through your property...I love weather but not that kind. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 Man, 12z EURO porks PWM....ouch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 12z vs 18z Euro......I would cut thos snowfall totals by at least a third... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: 12z vs 18z Euro......I would cut thos snowfall totals by at least a third... Most of that is probably sleet anyway...esp in MA and far S NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: 12z vs 18z Euro......I would cut thos snowfall totals by at least a third... Will the real 12z EURO, please stand up...please stand up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Most of that is probably sleet anyway...esp in MA and far S NH. F5 clown gives me about 6"....I'm comfy going 2-5" of snow/sleet right now, since it will probably trend farther north, and will underestimate mid level warmth, anyway. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 Just now, sketcher709 said: Oh My, clearly someone who has never dealt with the utter catastrophe of a bad ice storm. On '08 we lost many of our most mature ornamental trees, our beautiful oak and maples were topped, we lost two beautiful old Mulberry and spent a week chainsawing, our beautiful 3 acre property was destroyed. We lost our privacy from the nosy neighbor across the street. Over the last 11 years, some of the trees that we did not lose have recovered. Some show signs of starting to succumb to the insect and disease damage where the limbs were torn off. Our beautiful 100' plus, rare American elm took quite a beating. Not the natural pruning you want. Not to mention, some of that "pruning" speared one of the limbs from a huge hemlock right through our roof, snapping two rafters in our antique home. We had no power for over 7 days. It was a terrible winter, the character of our property was changed at least for our lifetime. I'd sat the "pruning" you speak of could be compared to having a small twister barrel through your property...I love weather but not that kind. No doubt big ice is disruptive to life. I just don’t fear it like I used to. Mainly because I’m well prepared for it nowadays. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 How was 18z midlevel ?Simmy to 12z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: 12z vs 18z Euro......I would cut thos snowfall totals by at least a third... Big cave to GFS as expected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2019 Author Share Posted December 28, 2019 14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Man, 12z EURO porks PWM....ouch. That's what happens when the SLP is kissing your azz, Usually, PF would be sitting in a rocking chair rocking feverishly back and forth rubbing his hands together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: F5 clown gives me about 6"....I'm comfy going 2-5" of snow/sleet right now, since it will probably trend farther north, and will underestimate mid level warmth, anyway. Yeah and I'm still not sure that even the eurowx clown map can see all the layers. Most vendors only have H7 and H85. Both layers are below 0C but not by a lot and usually the warmest layer is going to be in between them in a setup like this. I'd definitely be downplaying the snow a lot unless this starts ticking consistently colder the next couple runs...which it still could. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 4 minutes ago, dryslot said: That's what happens when the SLP is kissing your azz, Usually, PF would be sitting in a rocking chair rocking feverishly back and forth rubbing his hands together. isn't the vast majority of any QPF from Monday 6z to Tuesday 0z (i.e there isn't much to part 2 on most guidance) and isn't much QPF from the SLP kissing your behind? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah and I'm still not sure that even the eurowx clown map can see all the layers. Most vendors only have H7 and H85. Both layers are below 0C but not by a lot and usually the warmest layer is going to be in between them in a setup like this. I'd definitely be downplaying the snow a lot unless this starts ticking consistently colder the next couple runs...which it still could. The euro clown maps are an embarrassment. Worthless in this set up . They can't see all the layers and thus garbage It's like the product gains some sort of legitimacy because it has Euro attatched to it. Watching SPC Winter weather trends is something i find valuable. Currently they have 50% or less chance of 2" South of MHT thru 8pm Monday evening As far as ice goes SPC sees this as primarily N of PIKE and West of CT river (Berks/ S VT) have greater than 30% shot of 1/4 inch ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 1 minute ago, qg_omega said: Big cave to GFS as expected It hardly budged....GFS is the one that caved dramatically, from a cutter to a colder event. That said, I think the EURO is too cold...here is why... It trended both NORTH AND LATER with the redevelopment of the mid levels, yet got colder...makes no sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2019 Author Share Posted December 28, 2019 2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: isn't the vast majority of any QPF from Monday 6z to Tuesday 0z (i.e there isn't much to part 2 on most guidance) The second part has been weaker/warmer on the models today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 Really not impresssed with FRZR potential or Snow in eastern Areas of New England. Maybe a sliver of extreme NE mass and SE NH can cash in more snow but it looks like a sleet fest with primary FRZR threat in Western SNE N of CT 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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