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Yankees29

Climate Change, Today's Students, and Anything Else

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6 hours ago, purduewx80 said:

NOAA has an interesting interactive tool showing how sea-level rise will affect the US coastline.

The worst-case scenario is thought to be an ~8' rise by 2100, with ~3' the average estimate.

Have to wonder about that, it requires a serious acceleration in the rate of sea level increase.

We've been running at about 1.5"" per decade according to this piece by NOAA, which would add up to a foot by 2100.

https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/sealevel.html

So the average rate has to triple to get to 3 feet. Could happen, but it requires a discontinuity, business as usual won't get there.

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8 hours ago, etudiant said:

Have to wonder about that, it requires a serious acceleration in the rate of sea level increase.

We've been running at about 1.5"" per decade according to this piece by NOAA, which would add up to a foot by 2100.

https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/sealevel.html

So the average rate has to triple to get to 3 feet. Could happen, but it requires a discontinuity, business as usual won't get there.

if you read that article, you’d see very clearly (big bold letters) they expect that rate to increase. It says so in plain language. Business as usual (fossil fuels) w increasing world population is expected to lead to an increase in the rate of sea level rise. Periodt. 

 

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2 hours ago, purduewx80 said:

if you read that article, you’d see very clearly (big bold letters) they expect that rate to increase. It says so in plain language. Business as usual (fossil fuels) w increasing world population is expected to lead to an increase in the rate of sea level rise. Periodt. 

 

I did read the article and saw that it said they expect the rate to increase, but not by how much. If a six fold increase was their baseline projection, it would have been the highlight of the article, but there is nothing about how much more.

What is the source of the 3' to 8' estimates, because they seem very discontinuous with the record to date?.

 

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On 1/21/2020 at 8:04 AM, etudiant said:

I did read the article and saw that it said they expect the rate to increase, but not by how much. If a six fold increase was their baseline projection, it would have been the highlight of the article, but there is nothing about how much more.

What is the source of the 3' to 8' estimates, because they seem very discontinuous with the record to date?.

 

It looks like the sea level rise is matching the most progressive of the models, not the more conservative ones.

The higher sea level rise may because it's now expected that both the north and south polar ice caps will be gone by then.

 

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On 1/21/2020 at 5:32 AM, purduewx80 said:

if you read that article, you’d see very clearly (big bold letters) they expect that rate to increase. It says so in plain language. Business as usual (fossil fuels) w increasing world population is expected to lead to an increase in the rate of sea level rise. Periodt. 

 

Glad to see that you also brought up the "world population" issue that most seem to want to avoid.  The world population issue is pure logic, of course.  But it's also been demonstrated in study after study.

Also, it looks like the sea level rise between 2000 and 2020 has matched the most aggressive of the climate models not the more conservative ones.

 

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On 1/20/2020 at 2:36 PM, purduewx80 said:

NOAA has an interesting interactive tool showing how sea-level rise will affect the US coastline.

The worst-case scenario is thought to be an ~8' rise by 2100, with ~3' the average estimate.

With the way we're going the worst-case scenario might be the most accurate, since as of now actual sea level rise is matching the most aggressive of the models.

There was another tool I was somewhere that estimated the amount the average temp will increase by 2050 (30 years).  It is specific to zip code, for mine it said it would be 5.6 degrees in the winter and 5.2 degrees in the summer.

There is a map of avg temp increase during the winter between 1970 and 2020 (50 years) and that comes out to about 5-6 degrees.

 

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2 hours ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

I too, have questioned the water rising thing. I live on Long Island. Don’t see it. 

 

2 hours ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Exactly brother. It's not happening. It's a lie.

 

It's happening.  Here's just one example.

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On 2/1/2020 at 9:28 PM, Rjay said:

^There's so much literature on this stuff.

Antarctica just saw its highest temp ever recorded- 65.1 and a rather large slab of ice just fell into the ocean there (it was about 130 ft tall.)

On another issue,. I just saw a 30 min documentary on HBO about the Fukushima disaster and what they revealed was horrendous.  Because of the impending 2020 Tokyo Olympics, Japan has been rushing to clean up after the fall out from Fukushima and they've done a really bad job.  They hired unemployed and homeless people to do the "clean up" and since 70% of the area that is affected is forested and mountainous, it cant be cleaned properly.  The workers weren't even wearing protective gear and weren't told about the dangers, they were in their street clothes.  And they piled up 16 million black bags of radioactive contaminants in public areas and told people it was "safe" to come back even though the area is constantly being recontaminated whenever there is heavy rain and runoff.  The Japanese government has tried to downplay the dangers and raised the maximum safe exposure 20x from 1 milliseviert like the rest of the world to 20 millisevierts, which scientists and medical researchers say represents a 30% higher risk of getting leukemia after 5 years of exposure, which compounds yearly (so it's 60% higher after 10 years.)  They told their workers not to worry about the clean up and to just make the area "look good".  Meanwhile children still have to go for yearly cancer checks and the food has to be regularly screened.  The researchers who went there to see what was going on found some areas with up to 70 milliseviert radiation levels (areas along the path of the Olympic torch!)  The former prime minister who was in charge when Fukushima melted down said that the reactor should never have been built and the tsunami changed his mind because he didn't listen to scientists who told him not to build it back in the 90s.  The current government has hired propaganda people because they dont have the numbers to back up how horrendous this so-called "clean up" has been, they are just trying to show their best face for the Olympics (which might be derailed anyway because of coronavirus.)  The former reactor is still contaminated and prone to further accidents and has to be doused constantly with sea water, which creates its own set of problems as the contaminated water has been mixing with the ground water and making it back into the ocean.  A nuclear chemist said the area isn't safe for being in for more than 30 min or so.

I guess this is why Japan has just commissioned 22 new coal plants :-(

Saw a recent report showing lower life expectancy and higher rates of asthma in areas with industrial fossil fuel plants like in coastal Rhode Island.  Local residents have now organized and are politically focused on moving these plants out of their neighborhoods!

On a more positive note, the UK has passed a law to ban all fossil fuel powered vehicles by 2035 and NY is considering doing the same thing for 2040.

 

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