Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2020


jburns
 Share

Recommended Posts

Just now, FLweather said:

I know. 

But current global models are a toss up.

That engery dropping from the NW seems to open up and flatten the wave. 

Needs to consolidate and strengthen more. As it drops in from the NW to TX,Ok. 

Like grit posted.  That would help with the confluence. 

 

I'd actually like to see the storm wave with less amplitude.  More wave amplitude means warmer and farther north sfc low.  We should have plenty of storm here, we just want to see the 50/50 low stronger / farther south / slower to escape off the E Canada coast - all equals colder

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, wncsnow said:

Interesting map, I would have expected the darker blue and white to follow down the eastern slopes of the blue ridge more. I gave seen nasty ice storms right along the escarpment and rain in the piedmont plenty of times. 

True, it's probably missing on the fine details, but gives the big picture view

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Given the amplitude of the incoming sub tropical wave and the increasingly (trending) stronger confluent setup over the northeast, someone is likely to see a very high impact ip/zr storm in the mid Atlantic. Whether its central VA or central/western NC, still too early to say. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

6Z GFS and ICON colder. Trend continues. 

The takeaway that may make all the worlds difference to the south and west of me is the fact that GFS continues to scoot the HP off to the east as the storm begins its trek up the coast. Canadian kind of anchors it in place more so. That could have major implications for people on the cusp of a very cold rain or a prolonged icing event. Betting man I’d say Canadian wins out because it’s built more like nam to sniff out those instances.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

47 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Is it me or is this thing trending more towards a gulf low, Miller A Type??

Agreed. It’s not a genuine one but it’s like a hybrid if there’s such thing. I don’t think the gfs is right in depicting the primary hanging on for that amount of time or driving that far into the high pressure. It used to fail before upgrade occurred. I alluded to this in mid Atlantic forum but don’t know if this has been corrected since upgrade. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

50 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

If the global models are close on the details... the surface temps in cad regions will come in much colder on the hi-res models when they get in range.  You can take that to the bank (assuming the h5 depiction doesn’t change much.. and it probably will, lol)

Watching the ensemble trends, my take is that the changes going forward at h5 will be subtle.  One reason for this is that the main features are large in scale (i.e. the 50/50 low and the large wave traversing the country).  Now it comes down to seeing how far southwest the CAD will setup.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...