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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2020


jburns
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Honestly, all we can hope for at this point is some cold. If the modeled cold verifies over the next couple of weeks we'll have a shot or two. We all know that many of our events aren't modeled a week or two in advance, and often show up within just 2-4 days. Give me the cold and I'll take my chances, especially this late in the game. 

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18 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Time is rapidly running out for anyone outside the mountains.  The chance for snow drastically decreases as we head into March outside the mountains.  Especially with the way high latitude blocking looks. Its a wonder we have seen anything at all with a plus plus AO and NAO.

Saturday still looks interesting on 18z. Looks like something tries to pop off the coast. Very cold atmosphere ! 540 0 degree line, S of Jacksonville FL, and low does pop off the Carolinas, hmm! MYB might end up with more snow than the mountains!?

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2 hours ago, Met1985 said:

Time is rapidly running out for anyone outside the mountains.  The chance for snow drastically decreases as we head into March outside the mountains.  Especially with the way high latitude blocking looks. Its a wonder we have seen anything at all with a plus plus AO and NAO.

I’ve seen snow thrice in February with a record AO! Icon says #4 is on the way! :ski:

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06z GFS closes off a low(weak) over southern Mississippi on Saturday morning which gives a little blue-radar stuff to northern parts of Alabama. Fizzles as it reaches Georgia as the low is squashed.  00z did as well, but just a little further north before squashing as well.  Neither Euro or CMC have shown this feature.

Curious to see if 12z has it today.

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Based on the GFS and Euro runs early this morning, the March 4th system would be more cutter like leaving us warm and facing more a severe weather threat than any kind of wintry precip. After that the pattern goes to crap once again. Prior to this, there are a few weak waves that die as they cross the NC mountains during the brief cold shot. The mountains may pick up a couple of light snow events with those disturbances. 

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48 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Based on the GFS and Euro runs early this morning, the March 4th system would be more cutter like leaving us warm and facing more a severe weather threat than any kind of wintry precip. After that the pattern goes to crap once again. Prior to this, there are a few weak waves that die as they cross the NC mountains during the brief cold shot. The mountains may pick up a couple of light snow events with those disturbances. 

I’d be good with that. Bring on the warmer days!

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2 hours ago, eyewall said:

Based on the GFS and Euro runs early this morning, the March 4th system would be more cutter like leaving us warm and facing more a severe weather threat than any kind of wintry precip. After that the pattern goes to crap once again. Prior to this, there are a few weak waves that die as they cross the NC mountains during the brief cold shot. The mountains may pick up a couple of light snow events with those disturbances. 

Winter was over 3 months ago! I’m pretty happy with how winter turned out

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RAH this afternoon ~ 2/24

 pair of strong shortwaves rotating through the base of the long 
wave trough; one Friday, followed by a stronger, secondary wave on 
Saturday, will need to be monitored for the potential for some very 
light precip amounts across the area. Given the modified cP airmass 
that will be in place, favorable nocturnal timing could allow for 
some very light/trace amounts of frozen precip.
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