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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2020


jburns
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2 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

I may just be wish casting but I swear the NAM looks pretty great at the end of its run. 

Surface temps in the region as much as 6+ degrees colder than the GFS at 06z Thursday in some places. 700mbar winds are WSW throughout the whole region and the vort is consolidated and digging, with some fairly potent energy already streaming in along the boundary. 

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4 minutes ago, griteater said:

OK I failed on that one. Precip is light on the GFS - stayed more suppressed than I thought it would 

Date: 102 hour AVN valid 0Z FRI 21 FEB 20
Station: 36.02,-79.02
Latitude:   36.02
Longitude: -79.02
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W
     mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SFC 1014   137   4.8  -0.4  69  5.1   2.6  93   4 276.8 277.4 275.0 286.9  3.66
  1 1000   249   4.4  -1.7  64  6.1   1.9  93   9 277.6 278.1 275.0 286.9  3.37
  2  950   664   0.7  -3.5  73  4.2  -0.9  82  10 277.9 278.4 274.9 286.6  3.10
  3  900  1096  -2.1  -6.2  74  4.1  -3.6  17  10 279.3 279.8 275.0 286.8  2.67
  4  850  1548  -4.6  -9.3  69  4.7  -6.1 344  18 281.4 281.7 275.5 287.7  2.22
  5  800  2022  -8.5 -11.0  82  2.5  -9.2 331  24 282.1 282.5 275.6 288.1  2.06
  6  750  2521  -9.2 -11.2  86  1.9  -9.8 311  30 286.6 286.9 278.1 292.9  2.17
  7  700  3056  -8.2  -9.8  88  1.6  -8.7 282  36 293.4 293.9 281.8 301.2  2.60
  8  650  3631  -9.7 -10.7  93  1.0 -10.1 266  42 298.0 298.4 283.7 305.9  2.60
  9  600  4246 -12.3 -12.8  97  0.4 -12.5 259  48 301.8 302.3 285.1 309.3  2.39
 10  550  4906 -16.0 -16.0 100  0.0 -16.0 255  54 305.1 305.5 285.8 311.5  1.99
 11  500  5618 -20.6 -21.3  94  0.7 -20.8 254  62 307.9 308.1 286.2 312.4  1.39
 12  450  6387 -25.7 -29.4  71  3.7 -26.3 260  74 310.9 311.1 286.5 313.5  0.75
 13  400  7235 -28.8 -44.5  21 15.7 -30.3 260  98 317.5 317.6 288.2 318.2  0.18
 14  350  8176 -36.2 -48.0  29 11.8 -37.0 260 104 319.9 320.0 288.9 320.5  0.14
 15  300  9228 -43.1 -55.9  23 12.8 -43.6 264 116 324.6 324.6 290.2 324.8  0.07
 16  250 10443 -47.2 -62.8  15 15.6 -47.7 267 138 335.9 335.9 293.3 336.0  0.03
 17  200 11902 -52.8 -68.7  13 16.0 -53.1 271 153 349.2 349.2 296.5 349.3  0.02
 18  150 13729 -59.0 -77.7   7 18.7 -59.2 274 137 368.5 368.5 300.3 368.5  0.01
 19  100 16248 -61.7 -83.3   4 21.6 -62.0 275  85 408.5 408.5 306.3 408.5  0.00

It's close enough if we can just get precip.
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It really did look better at the beginning at H5. Wonder what went wrong? Looks like it may have did what the WPC was talking about with the UKMET trying to rotate the pacific shortwave underneath the northern stream one which they alluded to likely being too fast/strong. Just speculation though, someone with more knowledge would probably know for sure though. 

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Timing differences between the GFS and NAM are fairly significant. NAM holds the vort back a bit more and the mid/upper level wind field over the SE is much more friendly for moisture transport. 850's still above freezing but they are crashing with surface temps in the region in the 36-40 range with still 6hrs of darkness left. I know it's the NAM at range but it definitely earned some respect with last weekends event here in my book. It led the way from the minute it came into range. 

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RAH - Sunday afternoon update.

By Thursday morning, we'll 
see moist WSW flow aloft beginning to overrun the cold low level 
airmass advecting into NC, thus many of the models have been 
suggesting some light precip developing to our SW and skirting at 
least our southern and southeast zones during the daytime and 
evening Thursday.  It's worth noting that the operational ECWMF has 
been shifting the precip shield further and further south with 
recent runs (given its further southward progression of the 
aforementioned cold front).  That said, if the GFS and Canadian 
verify, which suggest that precip will fall farther north than what 
the ECMWF shows, forecast soundings from these models suggest an 
opportunity for some wet snowflakes to mix in with the otherwise 
light rain over the south and southeast portions of our CWA. Clearly 
there is a great deal of uncertainty with this part of the forecast, 
so the best advice now is to stay tuned to future forecasts for 
updates, but right now we are not forecasting anything that would 
lead to substantial weather impacts for central NC later this week. 
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10 minutes ago, griteater said:

Precip on the 18z EPS Mean bumped north. It seems to keep wobbling back and forth each run (north/south)

Noticed on the individual members that a few big time snow totals showed up also. I don't think I've seen much of that on the EPS the last few days. 

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47 minutes ago, Grayman said:

To my untrained eye I thought the nam looked good at the end. Holding back just enough and moisture looks robost

I'd say your eyes are trained.  NAM looks good with precip.  As precip surges into Arkansas, I'd say it probably begins to move more west to east from there based on the height pattern.

3ufjq8k.gif

 

Here's the sounding at Charlotte at hr84 on the NAM.  Note the wet bulb (blue line in between the red and green lines) is below freezing except for a very shallow warm layer at the surface, and temp profiles are cooling thru the column as time goes on (dewpoint is dropping over time for example).

aiu4r6c.png

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