Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2020


jburns
 Share

Recommended Posts

1 minute ago, snowblzchance N CLT said:

Thanks for the analysis! So in future runs what should we be looking for to help amplify those disturbances without loosing that beautiful dome of high pressure?  Is it that the angle of approach of the northern stream diving in is too far east creating a dry WNW flow instead of more of WSW flow like in earlier model runs?  I know we’re basically looking at squeeze play setting up along the thermal gradient between the NS and the Southeast ridge. Is it a matter of having that gradient setting up more WSW?

Yeah basically. We need that energy to dive in farther WSW as when it finally comes in toward Fri it is too late unless you are halfway to the Azores.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

50 minutes ago, ILMRoss said:

The reason for the change is an eastward trend in the shortwave that drops in to help create lift. Compare: a8086e50b2036a0cc299a600822cfe23.jpg7a8905fb7dd029403731054f1dd08114.jpg
The 24 hour change in the gfs shows a 500 mile shift East. Because of this, the shortwave has a more positive tilt and produces less moisture transport. Still a very potent setup and I don’t think it would take too many tweaks to show snow again, but this is a setback.

 

Good post. And am I correct in saying that this eastward jump (and resultant change in the angle of the trough) is also responsible for some warming of the western areas? 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Good post. And am I correct in saying that this eastward jump (and resultant change in the angle of the trough) is also responsible for some warming of the western areas? 

Yes. What we are looking for is just enough “dig”  and just enough ridge to provide the convergence as the moisture slides across. Southern sliders are awesome things when all the players are in the right spot. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

19 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

Quite a few smaller events, some medium level events. Really, better than I thought given the OP run. Most of the GEFS members have snow in NC. What does the ensemble mean look like? Either way, now we wait for the EPS. 

The mean has 1-2 inches across NC

  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Orangeburgwx said:

And here is the result for 18zbd9572b075d33749339c82ada8c15873.jpg

Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk
 

Damn this thread really did die after the last few model cycles, when it should absolutely not be. While looking at these could seem discouraging, the trends are subtle but where we want them to be in this time frame. This storm is five days away, and a suppressed look is not that bad of a thing to have at this point. From 6Z until 18Z on the GFS, we have seen the moisture slowly tick northward around 50 miles and in addition you can see the high in much better placement for cold transport from the NW compared to the last few runs. We do not get a thermal gradient threat very often for winter storms, but this is not time to give up. The players are still there and if we can get the energy to interact more with the northern stream like we see on the 18Z GFS then we still could be in business. Also I would air caution on just looking at snowfall outputs as the column above the surface is fairly cold (900 mb and above) and that would mix down with the right moisture levels. 

  • Like 7
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...