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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2020


jburns
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As wet and over performing as all our rain events have been I highly doubt this system stays suppressed.  As cold as the profile looks, if this thing can amp up a little more we could be looking at a foot plus type storm. Wouldn't take much adjustments to get inch+ liquid totals in to -5 850 air that's only getting colder as the system moves in.

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1 hour ago, burrel2 said:

Just for reference. The snow storm from last week was modeled to be 36-40 degrees by all the global models the night before the event for my backyard. That storm had a similar thermal profile to the one being shown.  As it turns out I got down to 31.5 degrees and got over 3.25 inches of snow from just .35 inches of liquid. And the snow started sticking within a few minutes of falling.  

Now, if we only manage 1/10th of liquid with this storm then that might be problematic for accumulation(due to the boundary layer/mixing). But i mean you're only getting 1 inch even if every flake sticks anyways in that scenario.  I guess my point is you don't need inch+ precip totals to overcome a very a shallow boundary layer. As long as we get 1/4 to 1/2 inch of liquid we should get a nice accumulating snow from this system,(if the thermal profiles are modeled correctly).

If you're below .25 liquid totals for this storm, then yes, you probably won't get much accumulation outside the mountains.

 

Yep, if you buy the soundings on the gfs it still looks very similar to Saturday's snow...if not even a touch colder where I'm at...similar to the earlier euro runs. 

Wish it wasn't still 6 days out and  I could cash out now with the 18z gfs...0.70 to 1.00 liquid here..looks like all snow...save for maybe a little rain to start. It's hard not to be hopeful and encouraged but knowing how wrong the gfs normally is at this range..it worries me just as much. 

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2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Would this be a 10:1 type snow or Kuchera? The Kuchera maps show a lot less.

Depends on where your surface temp winds up. If it's below 32 then you'd be at 10:1 or better.  Of course if it's 33 in the afternoon with a 2pm sun angle you will be lucky to get 8:1 

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7 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

As wet and over performing as all our rain events have been I highly doubt this system stays suppressed.  As cold as the profile looks, if this thing can amp up a little more we could be looking at a foot plus type storm. Wouldn't take much adjustments to get inch+ liquid totals in to -5 850 air that's only getting colder as the system moves in.

We also have a ++++AO and +++nao. I wouldn't be surprised to see this be more expansive and further north.

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3 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

Yea, the sad thing is we are still so far out. This thing could trend in to nothing on all the models, only to show back up 3 days from now!  It is nice having something substantial to track though. 

That's what I kept thinking to myself last week....that It was really nice to finally have something to track. Was a lot of fun...if there was one negative,  it was such a quick shot...hopefully this would last longer.   I sure didnt expect to have something to track again so soon...just hope it doesnt shift away or disappear altogether.  Even if it shifts north or south, I hope it's a good one so the south can blow out the mid Atlantic this year :bike:

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Just now, Lookout said:

That's what I kept thinking to myself last week....that It was really nice to finally have something to track. Was a lot of fun...if there was one negative,  it was such a quick shot...hopefully this would last longer.   I sure didnt expect to have something to track again so soon...just hope it doesnt shift away or disappear altogether.  Even if it shifts north or south, I hope it's a good one so the south can blow out the mid Atlantic this year :bike:

Bring it.  I was in Mexico on vacation last week through Tuesday this week.   Missed the fun looking to see some devils dandruff fall Thursday. 

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14 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

If you can’t make thermals work with a 1043 high banana’d all over the SE, might as well pack it up and call it a season.

Yeah I'd have to agree with that.  The high is really as good as we've been able to get in years (minus CAD).  If that doesn't get us down to freezing I'm not sure we have any hope! lol. With that said, I'm always worried about surface temps. Hopefully it'll be good drama this weekend hoping the euro comes on board. Then, I'll start worrying about temps.  :popcorn:

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Just now, SnowNiner said:

Yeah I'd have to agree with that.  The high is really as good as we've been able to get in years (minus CAD).  If that doesn't get us down to freezing I'm not sure we have any hope! lol. With that said, I'm always worried about surface temps. Hopefully it'll be good drama this weekend hoping the euro comes on board. Then, I'll start worrying about temps.  :popcorn:

Euro was on board yesterday, it’ll be back by Sunday, then here comes the NAM...

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4 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Euro was on board yesterday, it’ll be back by Sunday, then here comes the NAM...

I don't know man.  I'm not a big believer in the "it's fine it lost it it'll come back" theory.  The good ones get latched on to and usually hang in there imo. At least on the ensembles. The ensembles really aren't great anywhere yet.  By Monday I think we'll know what's coming. 

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34 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

About 11 (~55%) members hit my general area.  This looks like either a hit or a miss storm overall.  Not much in between

Yeah I counted (18z GEFS):

11 - SE Forum hit (somewhere)

7 - No Storm / Suppressed into the Gulf / Miss

2 - Hit to our north

 

Previous run (12z GEFS):

11 - SE Forum hit (somewhere)

9 - No Storm / Suppressed into the Gulf / Miss

0 - Hit to our north

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14 minutes ago, griteater said:

Yeah I counted (18z GEFS):

11 - SE Forum hit (somewhere)

7 - No Storm / Suppressed into the Gulf / Miss

2 - Hit to our north

 

Previous run (12z GEFS):

11 - SE Forum hit (somewhere)

9 - No Storm / Suppressed into the Gulf / Miss

0 - Hit to our north

Trending odds grit? 

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Looking at the WRF.

Virginia Beach south to extreme northern Outer Banks may see some Ocean Effect  snow showers/flurries tomorrow.

The column is below freezing.  Moisture is limited.  But very possible for some low top streamers coming off the Atlantic.  Winds in the lowest 6k feet coming in out the NE.

Doesn't happen much. So it would be a rarity for them. 

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