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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2020


jburns
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Best I can tell the ukmet favors the EURO more than the GFS at 144hrs.  ICON looks like it's setup for a monster storm at 180hrs as well.  JMA doesn't leave a cutoff  low behind in the Southwest. It appears the GFS is on the far end of guidance with that feature at the moment. Hopefully it's wrong.

for the record, the CMC leans more towards the GFS in regards to the energy retrograding in to a closed low over the southwest before kicking east. 

 

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1 hour ago, burrel2 said:

Best I can tell the ukmet favors the EURO more than the GFS at 144hrs.  ICON looks like it's setup for a monster storm at 180hrs as well.  JMA doesn't leave a cutoff  low behind in the Southwest. It appears the GFS is on the far end of guidance with that feature at the moment. Hopefully it's wrong.

for the record, the CMC leans more towards the GFS in regards to the energy retrograding in to a closed low over the southwest before kicking east. 

 

70 degree day the day before on the icon slams a backdoor front through and it’s probably snowing the next day. We’ve seen this movie before. 

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14 minutes ago, Buckfever2 said:

I don't know much about this stuff so forgive me if I sound a little naive but... Does it look like the cold will already be in place when the moisture arrive or, will it be a situation where it changes from rain to snow?

It's too early to get into the specifics of it really but going off the latest Euro model I would not be surprised if it started as some rain down your way. It's still a week away so many changes going forward. Models are not in agreement as of right now but this afternoon's Euro run was a good start to what is hopefully a trend.

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28 minutes ago, Buckfever2 said:

I don't know much about this stuff so forgive me if I sound a little naive but... Does it look like the cold will already be in place when the moisture arrive or, will it be a situation where it changes from rain to snow?

No worries on the question, but the reality is that it wouldn't be a fruitful exercise to ponder on that type of detail this far in advance.  The most important thing IMO is for us to see a big, sprawling high pressure drop down out of Canada, delivering cold air.  Most likely, the high isn't going to stick around very long, but the bigger/stronger it is, the slower it will be to exit.  If we can get the good high pressure in place, then we look down south to see if we can time some SW flow and/or a wave in the southern stream to deliver moisture into the cold air

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No worries on the question, but the reality is that it wouldn't be a fruitful exercise to ponder on that type of detail this far in advance.  The most important thing IMO is for us to see a big, sprawling high pressure drop down out of Canada, delivering cold air.  Most likely, the high isn't going to stick around very long, but the bigger/stronger it is, the slower it will be to exit.  If we can get the good high pressure in place, then we look down south to see if we can time some SW flow and/or a wave in the southern stream to deliver moisture into the cold air

Tbh the big, smothering 1040 high is one of the most promising features of this setup thus far


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7 minutes ago, oconeexman said:

Kiss of death...CJ just made a fb post about the threat already

Yes he is already explaining the setup and showing the Euro & GFS ensemble possible solutions.

He said something that I'm sure most would agree board wide this is the best threat we've had this season.

I doubt he'll be the KOD.

He has some weenie in him and as a snow lover I Love it.

 

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4 minutes ago, Billypg70 said:

Yes he is already explaining the setup and showing the Euro & GFS ensemble possible solutions.

He said something that I'm sure most would agree board wide this is the best threat we've had this season.

I doubt he'll be the KOD.

He has some weenie in him and as a snow lover I Love it.

 

I know he loves as much as we do..he's my fav on tv..was just beating Mack to the punch

 

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I can't believe it. WoW GSP 

Meanwhile, the new ECMWF keeps the boundary draped much
closer to our region with a very positively tilted nrn stream upper
trof and ridge supporting a continental high over the Plains that
keeps the thickness gradient across our region. Precip on the nrn
edge...across our fcst area...but would be falling into cold-enough
air to bring some wintry precip. The fcst for Wed nite and Thursday
splits the difference, keeping a 20/30 pct chance of precip with
a p-type of mostly rain, but with a high elevation snow. As you
can imagine, this part of the fcst may change quite a bit between
now and then.
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Nice step back in the right direction from the GFS. Would like to drive that frontal boundary just a tad further south before it stalls, but far too early for that level of detail.

Given the pattern this is definitely the storm mode I'm hoping for. Stalled frontal boundary 100 miles or so south, with ample SW flow off the gulf, long duration event with no warm nose from an amped surface low. Given our lack of real cold air this year, I'd be scared of a big gulf low blasting us all with warm air. If it's gonna amp up, I hope it's late so it can get all the coastal folks and keep all of its warm air out over the Atlantic. 

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