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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2020


jburns
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33 minutes ago, FLweather said:

Hard to say. More consolidation imo at h5. 

18z icon_z500_vort_us_41.png

12zicon_z500_vort_us_43.png

 

Very evident 3 pieces of energy 

Others are better at this but I think the 12z looks better. It's a tick SW with a sharper western trough. Then there's the energy over VA on the 12z that is much less consolidated and weaker on the 18z. I beleive that would be the peice that helps with the cold press as well as keeping the main low further south. My guess is it would end up warmer and further north on the 18z. 

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9 minutes ago, Waiting on snow said:

Crickets in here and now I see why after seeing the 18z. Nothing but rain and no cold air to be found through day 10. After that not even worth looking at. This winter can't end quick enough. What a damn disaster.

Well good news for you; you don't have to wait for it to end, it never started! 

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30 minutes ago, Waiting on snow said:

Crickets in here and now I see why after seeing the 18z. Nothing but rain and no cold air to be found through day 10. After that not even worth looking at. This winter can't end quick enough. What a damn disaster.

Don’t y’all know, the great pattern is coming mid February! The pattern is looking great! -NAO, big PNA ridge, PV split! Fab Feb incoming, and March 1960 redux!

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FWIW ICON has been an absolute crush job for the 81 corridor back into the NW NC mountains. Granted it is the ICON but it has been known to have scored a coup or two in the past and has the backing of the Euro and to a lesser extent the GFS (but only because of temp issues). Pretty big signal between models that next weekend someone will be skiing or swimming. 

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Just now, Buddy1987 said:

FWIW ICON has been an absolute crush job for the 81 corridor back into the NW NC mountains. Granted it is the ICON but it has been known to have scored a coup or two in the past and has the backing of the Euro and to a lesser extent the GFS (but only because of temp issues). Pretty big signal between models that next weekend someone will be skiing or swimming. 

Would love to see that snow line go 50-75 miles more east....

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Not even saying this because I'm wish casting but GFS has been atrocious with next weekend's storm. It has a different solution it seems almost every Zulu run. Now has cutter up into southern Ohio. Wont buy it until Euro and other models show something similar. Euro Canadian and Icon all in a similar camp compared to GFS. 

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Just now, Queencitywx said:

@Buddy1987 if I remember correctly, they built the German model using either code or something from the euro model, which explains how it usually follows its lead.

Makes sense then. Be honest man with the way the winter has been it's great to see for the time being and I'd rather be in the euro camp with this years trends etc bc the GFS has been the euro's biatch. Knocking on wood as we speak so I dont jinx the 0z Euro run. Hopefully GEFS improved because there were some decent hits at 18z. 

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2 minutes ago, RT1980 said:

To get back to weather, what are the trends for the following week in everyone’s opinion?

Gut shot would say anyone north and west of I40 would have the best odds we've had in a very long time. GGEM has been furthest south and more of a swing and a miss. GFS is and has been the most amped and Euro and ICON have been best case scenarios for a couple runs for the northern folks of the forum.

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