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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2020


jburns
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19 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

That Tuesday/Wednesday disturbance dropping through the plains , has become more robust on the 12z today! And I think it gets together with something to form the coastal, which has also inches closer to the coast. Grasping , I know, but what else do we have to track besides the next warm up

:bag:

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Moderated but delayed winter coming, bank on it.  Meaning we'll have 40's and 50's out to the end of April.  The only unknown is whether or not we can still squeak out a Fab Feb special in the second half of the month.  It only takes one storm to make a winter.  But that D10+ pattern shift is elusive for sure.  Until that is HERE, and not 72, 240 or 300 hours out, we dont stand a chance at winter weather.  Enjoy your sun today!

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Story of the winter so far is the +AO. You can just look at a Northern Hemispheric 500mb map and it's obvious looking. The polar vortex is very strong/singular and it's very cold over the northern latitudes this winter. Until that changes, it will be hard to get any appreciable cold air into the south.

 

ao.sprd2.gif

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16 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

Story of the winter so far is the +AO. You can just look at a Northern Hemispheric 500mb map and it's obvious looking. The polar vortex is very strong/singular and it's very cold over the northern latitudes this winter. Until that changes, it will be hard to get any appreciable cold air into the south.

 

ao.sprd2.gif

Which is depressing as I've always wanted to find a correlation b/n the lower Sunspot activity/Solar Min and -AO!

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3 minutes ago, Tar Heel Snow said:

 

 several other tweets on his profile show that JMA has been really really accurate out to 2 weeks for the past month or so. A sign of hope perhaps.

Well the op euro shows a strong low pressure for the mid atlantic and heavy snow in western VA, WVA, and portions of NW NC next weekend..

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Something to keep an eye on is maybe some light snow over north ga tonight..hrrr is showing some. (In fact up to an inch or more in the mountains over toward rome). Nav also has been consistent with a little. Despite the dry profiles and runs of everything else, still  wouldn't surprise me to see some meso effects create a small area of flurries/showers into tomorrow morning. Not a huge chance but better than zero which is a lot considering how   horrible this winter has been.

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