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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2020


jburns
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58 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

I'm not giving up just yet. The cold is coming and at some point hopefully it links up with moisture...

 

39 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

On the plus side its going to be in the 50s and 60s again next weekend 

These 2 posts back to back just cracked me up...

Ahh, life in the Southeast

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30 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

The only thing saving us from 60s to near 70 this weekend will be cloud cover. The EPS looks pretty bad after 10 days too. 

I don't think it looks terrible. I mean at this point we pretty much know a brief warmup is coming after the cold shot, just gotta deal with it and move on. It does cool down again behind it though. And frankly, I'd like to just see an extended period of normal to slightly below. Here in the southern Apps, and even more so where you are than me, that plus good track and HP can deliver big time. Screw arctic cold, all that ever seems to do is dry us out. I'm tired of wildly swinging between death ridge and anomalous cold. Give me normal to slightly below with an active STJ, and I'll take my chances on climo working out in my favor. 

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1 minute ago, SnowDawg said:

I don't think it looks terrible. I mean at this point we pretty much know a brief warmup is coming after the cold shot, just gotta deal with it and move on. It does cool down again behind it though. And frankly, I'd like to just see an extended period of normal to slightly below. Here in the southern Apps, and even more so where you are than me, that plus good track and HP can deliver big time. Screw arctic cold, all that ever seems to do is dry us out. I'm tired of wildly swinging between death ridge and anomalous cold. Give me normal to slightly below with an active STJ, and I'll take my chances on climo working out in my favor. 

I would just be happy with a few weeks of dry but that isn't going to happen with this pattern. At least the rain amounts look light for now.

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4 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

I would just be happy with a few weeks of dry but that isn't going to happen with this pattern. At least the rain amounts look light for now.

Can't disagree with you there, if you're looking for dry it doesn't appear to be coming anytime soon. At least if we'd get some snow it'd be a slow melt and soak instead of all this runoff and mudslides we've been having. 

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3 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

Can't disagree with you there, if you're looking for dry it doesn't appear to be coming anytime soon. At least if we'd get some snow it'd be a slow melt and soak instead of all this runoff and mudslides we've been having. 

If your looking for cold, there doesn’t appear to be any, outside of the next 4-5 days, then back to normal or above! It sucks because normal temps even in January, won’t get us snow!

I knew JB jinxed it yesterday when he said cold was coming the last 2 weeks of January and atleast 1st half of February, non stop for the East !

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1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said:

If your looking for cold, there doesn’t appear to be any, outside of the next 4-5 days, then back to normal or above! It sucks because normal temps even in January, won’t get us snow!

I knew JB jinxed it yesterday when he said cold was coming the last 2 weeks of January and atleast 1st half of February, non stop for the East !

The EPS and the GEFS after the brief warmup. 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-conus-t2m_f_anom-0472000.thumb.png.b860d802f2615ce622a81df45f0931f3.pnggfs-ensemble-all-avg-conus-t2m_f_anom-0385600.thumb.png.16f5d1054e5423b65a429f09c6c1c942.png

The warmup is happening but it doesn't seem long lasting for now. Let's try not to freak out over it until there's actually reason to, and the reload stops showing up. How strong or how long the reload is remains to be seen and is just a waiting game I suppose. This could all still go down the crapper and turn warm on us long term, but until it actually shows that I gleefully kiss this month long death ridge goodbye and welcome the new pattern. 

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26 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Don't you dare throw that analog at me... that was 47 years ago Mack, only way I will see 28" is if I move to Maine!

Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk
 

Orangeburg didn't receive 28" either (more like 18").  No area received 28" of snow.  The most was reported out of Clarendon County in Rimini (with 24 inches).  

 

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1 hour ago, LithiaWx said:

I’m going to say down to about a 30% chance of measurable snow in Atlanta for 2019-2020 winter.  Just a guess but that’s my thinking. 

Honestly feels fairly optimistic. I'm getting somewhat worried up here in the Mtns. Haven't had more than a skiff on the porch since December 2018, and that's at an elevation that averages 10-12 inches a year. The upcoming pattern is certainly better than where we've been as far as temps go, but it seems fairly hostile for snow because of the fast flow. Just gonna keep hoping climo eventually throws me a bone. 

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